[RE]

In Trumpspeak, it's a "Great, Big, Beautiful Depression".

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/22/investing/dow-great-depression-sell-america-trade/index.html

We're suddenly talking about the Great Depression when discussing Trump's stock market

RE

[K-Dog]

From your article.

That potentially disastrous combination of slowing growth and rising inflation is difficult to overcome. Although economists don't yet expect anything close to the so-called stagflation of the 1970s, the rapid reordering of global trade dynamics is causing tremendous confusion and unease among consumers, businesses and traders.

High unemployment should keep prices down.  But when 'Make America Great Again' means returning to 1973 via inflation introduced by Trump tariff, we get a shitshow.



Trump Calls Groceries an 'Old-Fashioned' Word During Tariff Speech:    -  It Sort of Says a Bag with Different Things in It

Tariffs are a national sales tax on imported goods.  Trump does this, and at the end of the year he makes tax breaks on the rich permanent.  One tax merely replacing the other, and Trump gives America new regressive taxes.  Nothing else changes, and here is the important thing which is missed.

A national plan to bring manufacturing back to America would be Socialist.  Trump and other republicans would never allow it.  The same people who exported manufacturing are not going to import it. 

All Trump is doing is moving taxes to the lower class so his base will kiss his royal ass.  Any plan to move manufacturing to America would reduce profit.  Trumps base is all about getting as much as they can for themselves.  They are Nazis.

They think their way is the American way.  All you can for yourself, and fuck everyone else.  The not so secret handshake of the rich.

[RE]

Happy Days are Here Again!  Powell keeps his job and China's tariffs get slashed.  Trump was read the riot act by the Illuminati.  Back up goes the YoYo.



The problem with YoYo-nomics is nobody can plan anything, because policy changes every time the economic wind changes direction or his Trumpness has a bad day on the golf course.  There is no economictheory here, it's all the "art of the deal" which is Trumpspeak for bullying.  You can't bully the Bond Vigilantes, there's no one person you can sit down and make deals with.

So, now that the stock market is all perky again, how long till the next crisis?  2 are waitingg in the wings, the Fed Budget and the CRE market which has a reckoning coming.  There is also no guarantee China will just forget about the Tariffs and all the threats.  They can still quietly dump USTs to keep the pressure on interest rates.

Expect further bounces of the YoYo.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/23/business/stock-market-dow-jerome-powell-fed-trump/index.html

Trump was warned of empty shelves and financial turmoil from tariffs and firing Powell. His U-turn pushed stocks higher

RE

[RE]

Nothing will kill the Trumpenator's approval numbers faster than empty shelves at Wally World.  MAGA  Konsumers gotta get their shopping fix!  Can't wait to see what starts running out first. 

https://www.investors.com/news/trump-trade-war-difficult-decisions-as-china-shipments-cease/

Port Of Los Angeles Warns 'Difficult Decisions' Ahead As Shipments From China Cease

RE

[K-Dog]

          Coming to Americas soon.




          And where shelves are not empty.  Enough $$ gets you access.


 

[RE]

Inching closer to a Bond Vigilante rebellion.  Also popular rebellion when the Medicaid cuts are implemented.  As I mentioned after the Trumpenator backed off on the Tariffs to halt the market slide, the next big crisis would come with the budget and balloning deficit.  The Repugnants have painted themselves into a very tight corner, and there are only 2 chances everything will go right for this to work...slim & none.

Onward into the Valley of Economic Death go the 600...

https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/22/business/big-beautiful-bill-bond-market

Trump and the GOP have no way out of the Big, Beautiful Bill. That's the problem

RE

[K-Dog]

The phrase "built on tariffs, spending cuts, and tax cuts" (in the bond article above), relates directly to the economic philosophy and policies of Herbert Hoover.  Hoover supported protective tariffs to shield American industries and agriculture from foreign competition.  He signed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (1930), which raised tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods.  The tariffs backfired when other countries retaliated with their own tariffs  , [who coulda knowd?] It was the kickoff to the Great Depression.  Hoover attempting to balance the federal budget cut government expenditures and exacerbating economic hardship.  It is now a known fact that Keynesian economics stimulates the economy by increasing government spending and lowering taxes to boost aggregate demand during downturns.  Encouraging production and job growth.

Tariffs are a sales tax at the end of the day.  A regressive tax.  Trump has increased taxes on the MAGA economic class while he cuts taxes for the already monied.  Trump is doing a Hoover.

Get ready for the great depression 2.0  .  That picture was taken ten miles from where I am, and almost a hundred years ago.  Seattle's homeless know the area well.

[RE]

Deja Vu tariff shenanigans with the stock market, this time threatening Europe and iPhones instead of the Chinese. Wait a week for the short squeeze when he postpones or cancels them.  It's the Trumpenator personal cash machine.  Buy the Dip!

https://www.npr.org/2025/05/23/nx-s1-5408573/trump-tariffs-eu-apple-iphones

Trump threatens steep tariffs on trade with the European Union — and on iPhones

RE

[K-Dog]

Deja Vu tariff shenanigans with the stock market, this time threatening Europe and iPhones instead of the Chinese. Wait a week for the short squeeze when he postpones or cancels them.  It's the Trumpenator personal cash machine.  Buy the Dip!

https://www.npr.org/2025/05/23/nx-s1-5408573/trump-tariffs-eu-apple-iphones

Trump threatens steep tariffs on trade with the European Union — and on iPhones

RE

I saw some of the Trump verbal diarrhea on a podcast.  Trumps bullshit generator was at full throttle because he knows not what the fuck he talks about.

Every trade regime, free or protected creates winners and losers.  Who these winners and loosers are is complicated.  Overall the distinction follows class, and not national lines. The working classes of all countries lose together, while trans-national capital makes bank.  Trump has made 9 billion in four months.

Interesting the expressions on the other people in the room.

[RE]

$KA-CHING!

As predicted, EU tariffs now postponed, Market Yo-Yo back up, more EZ money for Trumpolini's day traders.   This is so blatant it's an embarrassment.  Will the SEC do anything?   Of course not.

Corruption on steroids.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/27/investing/stock-market-dow-trade-trump

Dow surges by more than 700 points after Trump hits pause on his EU tariff threat (again)

RE

[RE]

This one ups the ante quite a bit in the Trade War with China.  Given the dependency of the chip hardware on rare earths ans so many products now dependent on chips, an embargo on rare earth exports is nearly as crippling as an oil embargo was on Japan prior to WWII..  It should fairly rapidly demonstrate that Trump's belief the Chinese are more dependent on trade than tthe FSoA is slightly mistaken.  Well, moronic is more accurate.

Only question is how long until he capitulates, then claims he planned it all along?

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3312968/crackdown-illegal-mines-china-tightens-critical-mineral-controls-amid-row-us

Crackdown on illegal mines as China tightens critical mineral controls amid row with US

RE

[RE]

We're coming down to the wire on Trumpolini's "Big Beautiful Ugly Bill", which besides cutting taxes for the rich will eviscerate Medicaid, which a huge number of low income people depend on to supplement Medicare, particularly in Alaska.  It remains to be seen whether Lisa Murkowski will vote against it, but even if she does it will take an additional 2 as yet unidentified Repugnants to vote no to crash the bill.

Yours truly of course is one of the folks depending on Medicaid. and I have no idea how it plays out for me if it passes.  No idea where the line will be drawn on who gets cut or whether the state will cough up money to fill in.  I do know if I get cut it will also cut many of the other residents of the Gulag with me, and how this place would stay open is a mystery.  Very exciting. lol.

https://alaskabeacon.com/2025/06/30/senate-moves-toward-final-vote-on-big-budget-bill-with-alaska-at-the-forefront/

US Senate moves toward final vote on big budget bill, with Alaska at the forefront

RE

[RE]

Looks more and more likely Trumpolini's Big Ugly Bill will pass, which means now the question is how it will all end up playing out.  Obviously the 16M people about to lose their Medical Coverage will be none too happy, but since they're low income people with zero political power their complaints won't bother his Trumpness much.  More bothersome will be how the Bond Vigilantes react to the additional $3T in debt he'll have to sell to pay for making the rich richer?  Who wwill buy this toilet paper?  Perhaps with the Trump brand name plastered on the bonds the MAGAotts will buy them as collector's items?

Anyhow, the operative word of the week is UGLY.  It's gonna get ugly out there.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/03/trump-budget-bill

'It's harsh. I mean, brutal': Trump bill to cause most harm to America's poorest

RE

[K-Dog]

The most detailed and credible analysis of the projected mortality impact of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" comes from Yale University researchers, whose findings are cited across multiple sources in search results.

Annual Death Toll: 51,000 Americans

Have we ever seen that before?

HO Ho Ho Ho Chi Minh -- Ho Ho Ho Donald Trump

Tax cuts, spending hikes on defense and border security, and cuts to social safety nets in one 📦 giant package.

And America is without a political party that will work for those in need.


And that is why this is the Doomstead Diner.

5 points if you spot the mistake in the math.  No 10 points, because if you point the mistake out and solve this puzzle my point is only made stronger.

[K-Dog]

The Psychological Tactics Behind Republican Work Requirements in Social Programs

Republican lawmakers have long championed work requirements for social programs like Medicaid, SNAP (food stamps), and housing assistance. These policies are framed as promoting self-sufficiency and personal responsibility, but a deeper analysis show psychological and rhetorical strategies to advance broader political and economic goals. A deliberate use of psychological and rhetorical strategies intended to blow smoke up your ass.

Republicans consistently frame work requirements as a way to restore dignity and encourage self reliance echoing America's cultural emphasis on individualism.  Republicans define welfare as a handout that must be earned. 

Bill Clinton's Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act imposed strict work requirements for welfare.  Bill shifted the Overton window and Republican Propaganda became Democratic Party Propaganda.  He significantly changed the way the Democratic Party was funded by modernizing its fundraising strategy and embracing large-scale, corporate-style donor operations that had previously been more associated with the Republican Party. I leave it to you to connect the dots.

Ending welfare as we know it played into narratives about lazy welfare queens, a racially charged stereotype popularized by Ronald Reagan involving several Cadillac cars, a fat woman, and lots of kids.  None of the stereotype was true. Most welfare recipients already worked, but the law led to deep cuts in assistance without significantly improving any employment outcome due to a paperwork trap that made benefits hard to get.

Republican lawmakers argue that Medicaid expansion under the ACA discourages work, despite studies showing 92% of Medicaid recipients who can work already do.  They simply can't afford private insurance.  They do not make enough money.  Framing the issue as moral rather than economic, Republicans bait and switch.  The switch avoids any talk of stagnant wages, lack of childcare, and the realities of gig work, which does not at the end of the day, pay.

Work requirements exploit deep-seated cognitive biases to make asshole policies seem reasonable.  It is done to make shit smell good.

If someone looses benefits, it's assumed they did something wrong.  The system is rigged so people loose benefits in a red tape paperwork trap.  Low wages, disabilities, no fucking jobs, are considerations that are not talked about.  With the onus of responsibility moved, it is assumed that everyone can easily comply with work requirements.

The Arkansas' Medicaid Work Requirement (2018) shows otherwise.  The state imposed a 20-hour a week work requirement for Medicaid. 18,000 people lost coverage for failing to report their hours.  People working could not jump through the hoops.  Sick people could not do the paperwork.

Republicans do not care.  They just say everybody dies.