You will know collapse when you see it.

QuoteSure...but how many years do you need to see it and claim it before everyone else figures out you pulled the trigger on claiming it WAY early?

I am not concerned about claiming collapse early because we live in a world which denies collapse altogether.  About collapse I prefer being right or wrong, rather than be early or late.

As things are.  Things are happening as rational doomers predict.  There is a shooting war.  Prosperity America has no more.  I never was a 'Earth is going to turn into Venus guy'.  I have not predicted things too early.  Some years ago I came up with a musical chairs theory.  A crisis comes and some people don't make it on through to the other side.



How many people with long term unemployment from frequent economic downturns in America ever get back to work?  Not many.  2008 almost did me in.  Musical chairs.  Fewer resources find fewer people to distribute themselves amongst.  As if resources were sentient. 

But resources have no intelligence, human culture only makes it look that way.  Where are you on the supply chain gang?  Cycles of musical chairs become more frequent and more brutal now.  Lebanon has 50% unemployment and that is not the only country in DIRE straits as I type.  There is a serious shooting war and no protest.  Social collapse.  Half of America is ok with WWIII.  The choo-choo train of collapse can be heard approaching in the distance.  People don't know it is too late to make America great.  They do not hear the train.

I have not claimed anything too early.  Collapse is delayed because substitutions for resources are available.  Easy oil became depleted and people into collapse in 2000 thought the end was nigh.  Fracking extended the oil endowment but a Seneca cliff of oil production is on the horizon.

You can't say it ain't so.

* Considering that it is too late to do anything to avert collapse.  Nobody was too early!

Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 01, 2023, 02:59 PMYou will know collapse when you see it.

Like Pornography, it's tough to define but you know it when you see it.

It is important to realize you can use the word as a noun or as a verb, and to me it has more utility as a verb.  Collapse is a process that occurs over time, it has past, present and future tenses.  Our civilization has not yet collapsed, it is in the process of collapsing.  What I do nowadays mainly is to note various events that are occuring which are leading indicators of further unraveling of Industrial Civilization.  No one of these events is the end or even the beginning of the end of the process, although it is the end of the beginning (thank you illuminati scumbag Winston Churchill).

Picking benchmark numbers to label our civilization's place on the collapse timeline is quite arbitrary and varies a lot by location.  However, the trajectory everywhere now is the same wherever you go and whatever benchmark you care to examine.  It's headed South.



RE

Quote from: Tonyprep on Apr 01, 2023, 10:56 PMTechnically, a collapse happens over a very short period, suddenly.

Short is a relative comparison.  The Roman Empire collapse took a couple of hundred years.  Compared to how long the empire was around, that was pretty short but long measured by the human life span.  Industrial Civilization has been around 270 years.    If collapse takes 50 years, that is still pretty short.  It's also hard to put a finger on when collapse has completed.  In a sense the Roman Empire never finished collapsing, it is still with us in the form of the Holy Roman Catholic Church.

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 02, 2023, 03:49 AM

Quote from: Tonyprep on Apr 01, 2023, 10:56 PMTechnically, a collapse happens over a very short period, suddenly.

Short is a relative comparison.  The Roman Empire collapse took a couple of hundred years.  Compared to how long the empire was around, that was pretty short but long measured by the human life span.  Industrial Civilization has been around 270 years.    If collapse takes 50 years, that is still pretty short.  It's also hard to put a finger on when collapse has completed.  In a sense the Roman Empire never finished collapsing, it is still with us in the form of the Holy Roman Catholic Church.

RE

Yep.

I think you may be able to borrow this quote very, very soon:

Quote"There are decades where 💣 nothing happens; and there are weeks where
💥 decades  happen"--Vladimir Ilyich Lenin

Quote from: Tonyprep on Apr 02, 2023, 05:53 PM

Quote from: RE on Apr 02, 2023, 03:49 AM

Quote from: Tonyprep on Apr 01, 2023, 10:56 PMTechnically, a collapse happens over a very short period, suddenly.

Short is a relative comparison.  The Roman Empire collapse took a couple of hundred years.  Compared to how long the empire was around, that was pretty short but long measured by the human life span.  Industrial Civilization has been around 270 years.    If collapse takes 50 years, that is still pretty short.  It's also hard to put a finger on when collapse has completed.  In a sense the Roman Empire never finished collapsing, it is still with us in the form of the Holy Roman Catholic Church.

RE

Oh, it's a little quibble. It's hard to think of a decline over a couple of centuries as being a collapse but the decline is often referred to as collapse. Whether industrial civilisation's decline will be regarded as a collapse, is something for future historians, if such beings will exist.

I think when the lights go out permanently most people will consider collapse as being well along.

RE

There was discussion in the tower of babble around 1970 about the world going to shit by the year 2000.  The date was delayed by a cosmic microsecond when tight oil substituted for easy oil, which is now GONE.  Original 1970 doom discussions neglected other conversations in the din or the tower.  Some conversations diabolically evil.

The powers that be, whom have had a lock on the American psyche ever since they told women to smoke with 'torches of freedom' in the 1920's dealt with 1970-ish Earth Day discussions.  They killed them dead.

Quote"There are decades where 💣 nothing happens; and there are weeks where
💥 decades  happen"--Vladimir Ilyich Lenin

This is definitely Collapse.



https://wtop.com/baltimore/2024/03/key-bridge-in-baltimore-collapses-after-hitting-large-boat/

Part of Key Bridge in Baltimore collapses after large boat collision, sending vehicles into water

RE