Looks like we have a new SHTF Date to wait for: 2031.     Not quite 2 decades after the feared Mayan prognosticaltion of 12/21/2012 for TEOTWAWKI.  This is when this article predicts North Sea oil to be net energy negative.  It predicts also that globally all oil will be net energy negative by the end of the 2030s.

However, why this is not quite as bad as it sound comes early in the article with the current state of Alaska oil: "Alaska's oil production became net-energy negative in 2021."  If it's negative, why pump it?

Because the energy to pump it up comes from NG, which is extracted along with oil and can't be sold itself because there's no NG pipeline or LNG production facility to get the NG from the slope to markets where it might be burned directly to produce electricity.  So it's essentially free energy to use for pumping up the oil remaining there.  In fact there's so much extra NG they have to flare it off because they have nowhere to store it either.

Similarly, a deep sea oil extraction platform could get power to pump up oil from the depths of the ocean utilizing a Wind Turbine at the surface to power the rig.  No way to get the electricity itself to shore, but you can use it right there to pump up the oil.  Essentially free energy also except for the cost of the turbine.

So this really doesn't tell us when the lights will go out here in the FSoA, just that things are going to get a lot dicier moving forward.  We already knew that though.

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2024-04-15/the-oil-crash-is-coming-sooner-than-we-think/

RE

Which according to the Chevron CEO, is not anytime too soon.  Chevron will still be pumping up the black gold for the stockholders in 2040.  He does not buy the Hydrogen Hype.

By preparing for this "volatility" with a balance sheet that can withstand an extended period of "very low prices," Chevron's CEO noted that the company predicts it will deliver 10% compound annual growth in free cash flow over the next several years.

"Driven by the Permian, driven by some other shale assets in our portfolio, projects in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico," Wirth pointed out, "we've got a number of other assets that are delivering growth. And the combination with Hess only strengthens our cash flow longer into the future, not only to the end of this decade, but well into the next."

https://www.foxbusiness.com/energy/chevron-ceo-reveals-us-will-see-end-oil-age

Chevron CEO reveals when US will see the 'end of the oil age'

RE

Quote from: RE on May 07, 2024, 05:33 PMWhich according to the Chevron CEO, is not anytime too soon.  Chevron will still be pumping up the black gold for the stockholders in 2040.  He does not buy the Hydrogen Hype.

By preparing for this "volatility" with a balance sheet that can withstand an extended period of "very low prices," Chevron's CEO noted that the company predicts it will deliver 10% compound annual growth in free cash flow over the next several years.

"Driven by the Permian, driven by some other shale assets in our portfolio, projects in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico," Wirth pointed out, "we've got a number of other assets that are delivering growth. And the combination with Hess only strengthens our cash flow longer into the future, not only to the end of this decade, but well into the next."

https://www.foxbusiness.com/energy/chevron-ceo-reveals-us-will-see-end-oil-age

Chevron CEO reveals when US will see the 'end of the oil age'

RE

Is he an honest man?

Sounds like tough times ahead for small polluters.  Only apply if you can destroy the environment on a planetary scale.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/76-of-Small-Offshore-Oil-Companies-at-Risk.html

76% of Small Offshore Oil Companies at Risk

RE

Quote from: K-Dog on May 07, 2024, 10:56 PM

Quote from: RE on May 07, 2024, 05:33 PMChevron CEO reveals when US will see the 'end of the oil age'
RE

Is he an honest man?

What does honesty have to do with it? Hubbert was honest in both 1938 and 1956. Turns out honesty isn't the issue.

A two year old discussion that will be of interest to the hard-core doomer.  The fossil gurus are mentioned.

Peter's website: Toxic Plants Blog

There seems to be no understanding of the Seneca Cliff in the conversation.  Something the 'Greer' Camp gets wrong.

The catabolic collapse relates to doom, the same way democratic socialism relates to anarcho-primitivism. 

Both speakers suffer from affluensa.  They know our days are numbered, but their affluensa causes both of them to be accepting of business as usual.  Content to watch collapse from a perch of comfort and safety.  One motivation for catabolic collapse  among others.  It appeals tto the affluent.  That said there is insight in the discussion despite a foolish excursion into vertical farm bullshit, literally.  Vertical farms have shadows.  Vertical farms could only be on the north edge of New York Cities' Central Park.  The ones behind are in shade.  Total hopium, elucidated using basic geometry.

I take issue with the discussion.  The Seneca cliff kills tight oil production.  When million of dollars of equipment and coordination are needed to bring new oil to market society will depend on a house of cards.  When that house of cards falls we have peak oil in spades.  It will take more than spades to get at the tight oil bonanza which will become unattainable.

The limits to growth will be reached. The result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity.

Peak pain.  In a wasted broken-down polluted word.

Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 06, 2024, 11:35 AMThe Seneca cliff kills tight oil production.

Ugo, when discussing the Senece Cliff on Facebook, also provided examples that included a rebound...the cliff not being an absolute.

In your opinion, does LTO production then recover in sync with this rebound, should it occur?

Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 09, 2024, 10:34 AM

Quote from: TDoS on Jun 09, 2024, 07:22 AM

Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 06, 2024, 11:35 AMThe Seneca cliff kills tight oil production.

Ugo, when discussing the Senece Cliff on Facebook, also provided examples that included a rebound...the cliff not being an absolute.

In your opinion, does LTO production then recover in sync with this rebound, should it occur?

I do not believe you.  The Seneca cliff represents a cascade failure from which there is no recovery.  Ugo will not be saying there is a recovery from that.

The idea that civilization can exploit tight oil, stop doing it, and then exploit it again after the technical base to access tight oil is lost is ridiculous.  Peak oil was show to be correct doctrine and all easy to get oil is almost gone.  The depletion of petroleum followed peak oil math.  In the years to come tight oil will do the same.

Be careful what you claim.  RE and I know Ugo.  Ugo knows I am working on Limits to Growth software.  Ugo and I communicated last week.

And I am making good progress.

Ugo has a Hopium streak that appears when he starts talking about renewables, so I wouldn't completely discount him generating some kind of scenario where there would be a recovery after a Seneca style rapid collapse.

Also, unless you believe we are on a one way steady progression to extinction, a leveling out and then rebound is the only other possible outcome.  That's what happened when the population of Homo Saps fell off a Seneca Cliff 75,00years ago and dwindled to just 10,000 meat packages.  It's also true for smaller collapses,  like Rome.  The city itself dropped in population to just a few thousand after the western Roman Empire collapsed, but eventually rebounded through the middle ages.

However, on a scale of a human lifetime, if you have a Seneca collapse, you would never be able to get back to that level so fast.  It takes many generations to recover.

RE

The old kingdom fell and there was chaos in Egypt.
Three generations of road warrior fun times without the road.  Then the Middle Kingdom.
Tut-tut the people are organized, but then the Middle Kingdom falls.
Three generations of road warrior fun times without the road again.  Then the New Kingdom.
The New Kingdom falls and then,
Libyan Pharaohs,

Libyan Pharaohs were Egyptian Idiocracy times.

and then Alexander the great.  A bad ass-mofo conquering dawg.

What do we mean by rebound.  This is too abstract.

Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 09, 2024, 11:53 AMWhat do we mean by rebound.  This is too abstract.

To know that, we'd need to know the contents of the Facepalm post His Royal Trollness was referring to that Ugo supposedly made.  Since I don't follow Facepalm, I have no idea what this might be.  We'll have to wait since HRT is back in the cooler for being persistently insulting.

RE

Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 09, 2024, 10:34 AM

Quote from: TDoS on Jun 09, 2024, 07:22 AMUgo, when discussing the Senece Cliff on Facebook, also provided examples that included a rebound...the cliff not being an absolute.

In your opinion, does LTO production then recover in sync with this rebound, should it occur?

I do not believe you.  The Seneca cliff represents a cascade failure from which there is no recovery.  Ugo will not be saying there is a recovery from that.

Facts do not require your belief. I was the one who pointed out that the very graphs and metrics Ugo used to show the Senece Cliff also showed a recovery. He postulated that in the given circumstance it had, and it might require some further work to see what those circumstances were.

Don't like what Ugo said? Tough noogies. Go find someone who doesn't know what they are talking about to call a liar.

Quote from: TDoS on Jun 11, 2024, 01:00 PM

Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 09, 2024, 10:34 AM

Quote from: TDoS on Jun 09, 2024, 07:22 AMUgo, when discussing the Senece Cliff on Facebook, also provided examples that included a rebound...the cliff not being an absolute.

In your opinion, does LTO production then recover in sync with this rebound, should it occur?

I do not believe you.  The Seneca cliff represents a cascade failure from which there is no recovery.  Ugo will not be saying there is a recovery from that.

Facts do not require your belief. I was the one who pointed out that the very graphs and metrics Ugo used to show the Senece Cliff also showed a recovery. He postulated that in the given circumstance it had, and it might require some further work to see what those circumstances were.

Don't like what Ugo said? Tough noogies. Go find someone who doesn't know what they are talking about to call a liar.

Can you provide us with a link so we can see the context of this analysis?

RE

Quote from: RE on Jun 11, 2024, 01:09 PMCan you provide us with a link so we can see the context of this analysis?
RE

Deleted my Facebook account years ago. I believe the conversation was on the peak oil group, where I was keeping an eye on another long time acolyte in the Church of Peak. His Seneca work had already been out for awhile, and he was deep in the past examining a culture that had declined, it might have been the Romans, and the metric he had identified as having a cliff profile stopped decreasing and reversed. When matched to the history of Rome, there was a question as to whether or not recoveries were possible, based on the metric he was using in that example. He began speculating on what the metric might mean compared to the events in real time, and postulated that he might have to examine Senece Recoveries to see if there was any value or frequency to the idea.

You can find posts I made 15 years ago on Peak Oil and you can't find a post from Ugo?  Come on.  How long ago was this?  In any event, "speculation" doesn't sound like he was very convinced of the idea.

RE