Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 10, 2024, 12:47 PM

Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 09, 2024, 12:08 AM

QuoteFt Knox was bleeding gold as the French wanted to be paid in gold at the time.

And now the chief frog wants to start a war.

It is a good thing the she-Trump did so well in the Hexagone election.  Now the Macrononi has other things to think about besides killing more Ukrainians.

EU elections seems to have sent a message to the current leaders.  Milquetoast performance kissing the American vegetable president ass has something to do with it in my opinion.  My opinion, and not worth much.  But all the American proxy war has done for Europe is drive up prices.  Do economics affect elections?

The possibility exists.

It would be quite interesting to see how France would function with a hard right president.  Imagine Trump trying to run a country with strong unions and a lively Communist party that loves to strike.

The issue that the right wing parties agree on and their support comes from is the anti-immigration movement.  The 21st century Frog pond however has a huge population from their former colony of Algieria and from Morocco.  Remember of course the film Casablanca, with the frog cop who was Bogey's best buddy.


Viva la France! lol.

Economically, all of the EU is in the toilet and it's hard to see how the National Rally and Reconquest parties can do much about it, even if they could get cheap energy from Vlad the Impaler.

I forsee a fairly chaotic goobermint and a lot of entertaining street action coming from the Lilly Pads on the Ponds of Paris.  The frogs will be hopping.

RE

This shouldn't be much of a surprise after all the Hoopla about the BRICS separating from the dollar in cross currency transactions, as well as readying to launch a BRICS currency backed by Gold.  The FSoA response tightens the sanctions, so the Ruble exchange rate tanks.

The question is how much will this affect the Ruskies in their trade with China and what the Renminby-Ruble exchange rate will end up at.  There has been talk of China devaluing the renminby anyhow, this may force it.  If that happens Chinese toys at Walmart will drop, good newz on inflation, bad newz for manufacturing.  This might force expansion of even more and bigger tariffs.  A self reinforcing positive feedback loop.

Dark clouds on the horizon.  Barometers gettin' low.  According to all sources, down the toilet we will go.

https://www.newsweek.com/moscow-stock-exchange-trade-halted-ruble-collapse-sanctions-1912161

Russians Line Up To Buy US Dollars As Ruble Plummets After New Sanctions

RE

Quote from: RE on Jun 13, 2024, 07:52 PMDark clouds on the horizon.  Barometers gettin' low.  According to all sources, down the toilet we will go.
RE

Again.

Planet X and the Mayan Calendar get my vote for cooler event windups than run of the mill recessions and whatnot. Boo Hoo China. Again. Some of those bird flu hysterics maybe? Covid was bad but hardly a decent doom beyond the economic side effects. The US debt load has a nice windup for something real, that has to impact standards of living, benefits, military size, giving away freebies to Europe and Ukraine, sooner rather than later.

 

Now we know why the BRICS chose this moment in time to announce their intention to launch a new currency backed with Gold and a new cross currency transaction clearing system for trade.  Apparently, the agreement forged in 1973 between the FSoA and the House of Saud to price Oil in Dollars expired a week ago on June 9th.  That is a big fucking deal and I am quite surprised this is the first time I have heard this mentioned.

It was that agreement that stabilized the Dollar after reneging on the Bretton Woods accords after WWII which pegged the Dollar to Gold.  It was the Birth of the "Petrodollar" and solidified the Dollar as World Reserve Currency.  As of June 9th, this is No More.

Now, there are so many dollars sprinkled around the world and so many assets priced in dollars that it doesn't help anyone to crash the dollar overnight, but the future demand for dollars is vastly diminished.  Other countries no longer need to borrow dollars to buy Oil.  They can borrow Rubles or Renminby instead.  Thic almost certainly will lead to lower demand for USTs at the treasury auction, which is going to make it even harder to finance the federal deficit.  The next few treasury auctions could prove very interesting.  Interest rates could skyrocket, bringing on an lmost intant recession.  It could dry up liquidity also, locking up the markets. It's a clusterfuck waiting to happen.

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-petrodollar-is-dead-and-thats-a-big-deal-202406141938

The petrodollar is dead and that's a big deal

RE

Quote from: RE on Jun 16, 2024, 09:04 AMThe petrodollar is dead and that's a big deal
RE

Reddit had some random commentary on it before it happened, couple weeks ago I think. But no big deal to them. Probably scared of looking like idiots again, dangling that close to another oil topic.

The world's largest oil producer and related companies won't mind too much. Nor will the world's largest natural gas producer, or world's largest LNG exporter.

But markets...well....money changers are just money changers....

One would expect FSoA producers will still accept dollars for oil, the question is how few of them will they take for a barrel?  Will they sell at $60/bl?  $50?  What's the break even point, on average?  Whats the range limits on production cost from FSoA wells lowest/highest?  You should know those figures.

RE

Well, it didn't take long for the shorts to jump.

Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered pointed out that the price undershooting was the consequence of a combination of several factors including extreme macroeconomic pessimism, speculative shorts and over-enthusiastic algorithmic trading that crowded out more fundamentally-based traders. Consequently, oil futures markets flipped to a net short position in Brent, compared with a net long position at the end of the previous week.

It's only 2024!  lol.  2029 is still 5 years away!

Joining the Saudis to go to the mat with the shorts, StanChart is predicting a supply deficit by the end of the year.

StanChart has reiterated its previous assessment that not only can the markets absorb the extra barrels by OPEC+ producers but that a deficit is likely to appear in the latter part of the current year and carry over to 2025.

Today' snapshot:

77.77 USD −0.28 (0.36%)
today
Jun 17, 12:35 AM EDT •

The last time we got down to $70 was the beginning of 2023.  $60 in April 2021.  Bottom a year earlier at $21 at the height of COVID.

I'll update periodically.  When it breaks into the $60s, we'll see how much the frackers still wanna sell.

The Saudis may be trying to do what they did to the Ruskies.  They can't flood the market anymore, but they still can under price pretty much everyone except the Ruskies or  some other Towel Heads.  If the deficit StanChart predicts doesn't turn up, they can undersell to gain market share.  It's a big version of two gas stations having a price war.  Unless the station across the street can sell at the same price, everyone will shop there.  Only if there are still buyers for the higher price gas can they keep selling.  How low can they go, for how long and keep selling?  How elastic is the demand?  How will the economy react?

I think the currency traders smell blood.  Anyone who sees recession coming is going to short oil.  Very entertaining.   

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Standard-Chartered-Oil-Markets-Will-Soon-Face-Significant-Supply-Deficits.html

RE

Quote from: RE on Jun 16, 2024, 06:31 PMOne would expect FSoA producers will still accept dollars for oil, the question is how few of them will they take for a barrel?  Will they sell at $60/bl?  $50?  What's the break even point, on average?

The only publically available work I've found at the formation level was here, in August 2022.
The change in economically recoverability was substantial between $40-$100/bbl.They do not mention work on other formations, but anyone who can put together one of these hard to find constructs, probably has others. The commercial information houses have these types of analytics as well, but they aren't publically available.

Quote from: REWhats the range limits on production cost from FSoA wells lowest/highest?  You should know those figures.
RE

Only experts might know the answer to that, and they aren't allowed to post here as just their expertise along is grounds for censoring the answer.

Quote from: RE on Jun 16, 2024, 10:26 PMI'll update periodically.  When it breaks into the $60s, we'll see how much the frackers still wanna sell.
RE

Fracking companies don't sell oil, they do recompletions on a cost per job basis. The companies contracting out the completion to service companies that do hydraulic fracturing own the oil, and sell it once produced. They will stop drilling and doing completions if the price gets low enough, depending on their breakeven costs for a desired rate of return. The service companies lay people off when business slows down, not just those doing the completions.

Quote from: TDoS on Jun 17, 2024, 09:18 PM

Quote from: RE on Jun 16, 2024, 10:26 PMI'll update periodically.  When it breaks into the $60s, we'll see how much the frackers still wanna sell.
RE

Fracking companies don't sell oil, they do recompletions on a cost per job basis. The companies contracting out the completion to service companies that do hydraulic fracturing own the oil, and sell it once produced. They will stop drilling and doing completions if the price gets low enough, depending on their breakeven costs for a desired rate of return. The service companies lay people off when business slows down, not just those doing the completions.

The question is, at what price does the company who has the lease on the extraction rights stop extracting oil from that location because it costs more than the next link in the chain (the refiner I guess?) will pay for a barrel of it?

I thought your expertiese might finally prove helpful in predicting what price on the futures market would lead to a significant drop in total sales and exports from the FSoA producers?  Oh well, just gotta wait and see.

RE

QuoteOnly experts might know the answer to that, and they aren't allowed to post here as just their expertise along is grounds for censoring the answer.

Actually that is grounds for censoring you.  Not just for misspelling,  Insulting another Diner violates our code of conduct.  You can only mean RE, I or both of us.  Your meaning is clear.

As you were not specific I'll take your insult at being directed at both of us.

The thought police calling us the thought police is a rhetorical trick, but I don't recall which one it is for the life of me.  Can you refresh my memory?  Tu quoque is the one I think it is.  But since you are the one performing the chicanery, why must I guess?  You can just tell me.  I'm dying to know.

Quote from: RE on Jun 17, 2024, 10:38 PMThe question is, at what price does the company who has the lease on the extraction rights stop extracting oil from that location because it costs more than the next link in the chain (the refiner I guess?) will pay for a barrel of it?

The people who know the answer to that question who took the time to post it would have the information hidden, erased, censored or otherwise removed as it is against the rules to be such an expert.

Quote from: REI thought your expertiese might finally prove helpful in predicting what price on the futures market would lead to a significant drop in total sales and exports from the FSoA producers?  Oh well, just gotta wait and see.

RE

What experience? Those with experience enough to be an expert, should they dare to post here, are subject to censorship, banning and misrepresentation should they dare to demonstrate said experience.

Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 17, 2024, 10:56 PM

QuoteOnly experts might know the answer to that, and they aren't allowed to post here as just their expertise along is grounds for censoring the answer.

Actually that is grounds for censoring you.

I completely understand. How dare anyone contradict the accepted herdthink. If this rule was ever challenged, it might reveal that some animals are more equal than others.

Is there a forum where we can try out posts to make sure we don't broach the herdthink rules in advnace(sic) of doing the work, and having itt (sic) either A) all erased or B) hiddden(sic) from others so the animals that are more equal than others can keep such understaanding (sic) to themselves?

Sort of like the Church, back in the day, hiding ideas it didn't like because it might upset the mindless massess (sic), plus the retention of power is all that matters. Even if the followers can be counted on a single hand. Or maybe...two hands...iff (sic) you only allow the thumbs to be counted.

Quote from: TDoS on Jun 18, 2024, 08:29 AM

Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 17, 2024, 10:56 PM

QuoteOnly experts might know the answer to that, and they aren't allowed to post here as just their expertise along is grounds for censoring the answer.

Actually that is grounds for censoring you.

I completely understand. How dare anyone contradict the accepted herdthink. If this rule was ever challenged, it might reveal that some animals are more equal than others.

Is there a forum where we can try out posts to make sure we don't broach the herdthink rules in advnace(sic) of doing the work, and having itt (sic) either A) all erased or B) hiddden(sic) from others so the animals that are more equal than others can keep such understaanding (sic) to themselves?

Sort of like the Church, back in the day, hiding ideas it didn't like because it might upset the mindless massess (sic), plus the retention of power is all that matters. Even if the followers can be counted on a single hand. Or maybe...two hands...iff (sic) you only allow the thumbs to be counted.

Some people are more equal than others here.  RE started the Diner and I am the webmaster.  Anybody else who posts here is a guest.  And that be U.

You are welcome to start the Denial Diner any time you want.  And if you do you can put RE in the cooler any time you want.  Just like he does to you.

I'll clear up a misconception.  We do not have free speech here.  RE and I are tyrants who can do anything we want.  You are free to express many things here which you are not free to express at other places, but free to express anything you want here.  Oh fuck no.  I left my idealism behind long ago so try and understand I am not living by rules here.  I make the rules here.

If you get your own place you can say anything you want.  On your own website you will have free speech.  Just like I do here.  And if you are like me you will remember that it is your tolerance that lets any dissent exist where you pay the bills at all.  Because you will pay the bill and own the place.  Just like I do.

Owning a website gives someone a better understanding of 'free speech'.  It is like being a parent.  It changes you.  Go for it.  In time you will realize what free speech really is.  Currently you have no clue.  I do.  I have been on both sides of the fence, and you have not.

Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 18, 2024, 09:10 AMSome people are more equal than others here.  RE started the Diner and I am the webmaster.  Anybody else who posts here is a guest.  And that be U.

So...you restated what I said because you figure....I didn't already know it? Sorry guys, I know we are all geriatric, but some of us appear to be more geriatric than others.

Quote from: K-DogYou are welcome to start the Denial Diner any time you want.

Amusingly, I've never needed to advertise.

Quote from: K-DogAnd if you do you can put RE in the cooler any time you want.  Just like he does to you.

Why a wonderfully silly idea. You don't seriously think a philosophy of only talking to people who agree with you is how science is done? You take your idea, write it up, find your most voriferously active opponent, and let them tell you what is wrong with it. Separate the wheat from the chaff, and presto, an improved product.

People who build the echo chambers WANT them because they can't stand an exchange of ideas, particularly when they spout bad ones so eawsily dismissed. Toyota going bankrupt in 2008, I mean really, that should have been laughed out of existence in real time. Instead? RE pretends he didn't write it.

I own everything I've ever published. And that isn't on the internet where the rules are just make shit up and pretend it is true...and pretend to forget the crap you said that was nonsense. I leave that to the experts here.

Quote from: K-DogI'll clear up a misconception.  We do not have free speech here. 

Go read what I wrote this morning. Are you so age addled that you've forgotten it already, because I've already pointed out that of COURSE there is no free speech here. THAT ISN'T THE POINT OF AN ECHO CHAMBER.

Quote from: K-DogOwning a website gives someone a better understanding of 'free speech'.  It is like being a parent. 

Is it? Neither you nor RE claim to be parents, so how in holy hell would either of you know ANYTHING about a real job like that? How many kids have you raised K-Dog? One? Three? I've got 2. I've got pics. Are you a parent, or just being a blowhard PRETENDING you know what it is like to parent?