One of the longest running threads on the original Diner Forum, I kept track ofthe increasing breadth & frequency of power outages around the globe.  With the combination of NG shortages and high temperatures hitting the Northern Hemisphere right now, it looks as though this summer we will really begin the slide down the slope of Blackouts from Richard Duncan's Olduvai graph he published back in the 90s.



Obviously, Richard was off on his timeline since we're closer to the top of that hill than the bottom, where he had us by 2025.  Things are not that bad here yet, but the Balkans are quite a bit closer to the bottom today.

We haven't hit full summer heat yet, so it will be interesting to see how the grid here handles power consumption this summer.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4nn140qp4do

Balkans hit by blackouts as heatwave persists

RE

Great to have the paper embedded.  Thx K-dog.

Now, it will be interesting to see where we are in 2030 globally.  It's tough to get accurate stats per capita going all the way back to 1930, and of course the figure varies tremendously by location.  This chart goes back to 1820 splitting it up by fuel type.



This breaks it down by country and goes  back to 1800



1930 is a good choice of starting point, since both the FSoA and the Brits were pretty close at ~150 GJ/person.  In 2000 the FSoA was at 350GJ/person while the Brits averaged out at around 170 GJ.  The FSoA by far is the most conspicuous consumer of energy globally.

Now you have to check population growth.  FSoA population has more than doubled since 1930.

.  So just to stay even took >2x as much energy/person, with increasing consumption you're talking ~5X as much.  So to get back to where we were in 1930, we'd have to us ~20% of the total energy consumption.  It seems unlikely that it will drop that much that fast here in the land of good and plenty.

On the other hand, the developing world which has seen the greatest percentage increase in energy usage over the last century will drop back much faster, and in fact are already doing so.  Places like the Balkans, or Columbia and Venezuela where they already have daily brownouts and rotating blackouts.

Richard Duncan's timeline also doesn't figure in the rollout of renewables, which while it is not changing oil consumption for transportation that much yet, is supplying a significant amount of power to the electric grid.  So this is likely to slow down the arrival of more regular and widespread power outages here in the FSoA.

Alaska will provide an interesting test case, since due to NG shortage last winter we had a couple of instances of power interruption during a cold snap in January.  Currently they're working on resolving these supply issues, but we'll just have to see how well they keep the power flowing next winter.  Back in 1930, Alaska had very little electricity.  I doubt it will drop to those levels in 7 years.  Unless the NG situation gets resolved though, we might run into trouble.

The biggest factor will be the global economy. 1930 was the beginning of the Great Depression.  A similar economic collapse in 2030 will turn off a lot of lights.

RE

Quote from: RE on Jun 22, 2024, 09:56 AM

Obviously, Richard was off on his timeline since we're closer to the top of that hill than the bottom, where he had us by 2025. 
RE

How perceptive. Of course, the really perceptive knew it 20 years ago before the 2006 cliff event happened, but undoubtedly they were stoned and banned as quickly as they revealed the difference in understanding from experts versus the run of the mill internet denizens just looking for an excuse to buy a hunting cabin to ride out the 2006 collapse.

Sort of like....shifting peak oil graphs to pretend they happened as predicted decades ago?

So is this a Jedi mind trick that both of you are doing now? Or just cohesion in the Pied Piper routine, hoping that at least one new lemming will show up to tag along towards the oft cited, but not yet found cliff?

Personal doom before societal Doom RE, I'd make you a decent bet on it, as it is a certainty with you. Unfortunately, you have no means of paying up in your current circumstances. And K-Dog is so sensitive to keeping his arms tightly wrapped around what he has got for fear of losing it in this collapsing/not collapsing/ DAMN do I like my housing equity situation that he probably won't risk anything.

But I as a parent can leave a will for the kids requiring a payoff. Versus those who can only pretend they understand parenting I suppose.

I note for the record that not once has the perspective between breeders (certifiable experts or otherwise), and non-breeders, been discussed.

Because old non-parenting doomers sit on one side of that equation? A correlation perhaps between those who need to change graphs to pretend something happened that didn't, as opposed to those of us who have a future stake in the outcome through our very genetics?

Quote from: TDoS on Jun 24, 2024, 08:32 AMAnd K-Dog is so sensitive to keeping his arms tightly wrapped around what he has got for fear of losing it in this collapsing/not collapsing/ DAMN do I like my housing equity situation that he probably won't risk anything.

Fuck You

We can fold the Diner and rejoice!  The energy crisis is over!



https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/jun/24/end-of-energy-crisis/

RE

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/jun/24/end-of-energy-crisis/

You had me worried for a second.  Then I read the article.  The author should be shot.

This is an outright lie.

QuoteRather than running out of oil and gas, economically recoverable reserves keep growing, and because of carbon recapture and other new technologies, harmful emissions will soon be almost eliminated.

I've been reluctant to advocate for the shooting of idiots until now.  I have a live and let live attitude.  But 'idiots' have no sense of shame or any inkling that their out of reality bullshit claims are to be a source of pain and suffering the idiots can't imagine.  But since they figure they will be a hundred years old before money can't buy them love, they do not give two shits.

Shooting is too good for them. Seriously.  Who is this motherfucking asshole?!  Lets see what kind of white bread this piece of shit is!



Richard W. Rahn is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and chairman of the Institute for Global Economic Growth.

And he is so stuck on himself that lying is fine with him.  Any means to an end to ensure his demographic maintains sin as usual.

Fuck future generations, the world belongs to me me me.  My suit wearing cronies and me.

If you are a janitor who smokes a fat doobie and watches You Tube all day you do not need the same political rights as Elon Musk.  Musk knows what to do with stuff and you don't. 

Richard W. Rahn agrees.  He was the vice president and chief economist of the United States Chamber of Commerce during the Reagan administration and remains a staunch advocate of supply-side economics, small government, and classical liberalism.

^*  The nimrod started with this "For decades, self-proclaimed environmentalists and their power-seeking political and media allies have been demanding the end of the use of fossil fuels — all in the name of saving the planet."  Self-proclaimed environmentalists ----------------- most of whom have PHDs.

The only thing Richard has right is this: "power-seeking political and media allies"  Richard knows his demographic has all the power.  Of course he got that part right.  It is not something Richard feels the need to lie about.  Having power gets him off.  Thus the dig.

Probably had his eye poked out by a disgruntled environmentalist.

RE

"Cubans expressed alarm, with one resident saying it felt as if the country had reached the "bottom of the barrel." "

Nowhere near the bottom yet.  "This is not the end.  It is not even the Beginning of the End.  It is however, the end of the beginning."

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/power-goes-entire-island-cuba-leaving-10-million-people-dark-rcna176169

Power goes out on entire island of Cuba, leaving 10 million people without electricity

RE

It's all because of Socialism.    All they gotta do accept some "market reforms" and the IMF will loan them money to turn the lights back on.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article294201499.html

As Cuba's nationwide blackout continues, a look at why the electrical grid collapsed

RE

Hard to restore power without fuel.  Cuba looks like a Winner in the race to de-industrialization in the western hemisphere.  It will be interesting to see how long their political structure will hold together without any juice.  It's a good window into the future.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/20/americas/cuba-blackout-third-day-failed-restore-intl/index.html

Cubans enter third day without power after fresh attempts to restore network fail

RE

Quote from: RE on Oct 20, 2024, 08:50 AMhttps://www.cnn.com/2024/10/20/americas/cuba-blackout-third-day-failed-restore-intl/index.html
Cubans enter third day without power after fresh attempts to restore network fail
RE

Well, Cuba is resilient, after all entire books and even movies were produced about how Cuba survived peak oil some 20 years ago now. So those Cubans are going to have to kick it up a gear on their previous conquering of peak oil and whatever and get REALLY Medieval.

Too bad they are busy giving Communism yet another black eye in terms of showing those pesky capitalists why they should stay right where they are. Right here on this very forum we have good Communists...and in a capitalist system they get million dollar homes and luxury cars for everyone in the family. In Cuba? You get to be hungry...and wet....in the dark....waiting for your ration of gruel to arrive in a week after the storm is over.

No wonder those Communists want to come here and experience Communism in America! Begs the question...how come Communist countries can't provide their citizens with luxury homes and goods if America can provide it for their Communists?

If this was happening in just about any other western industrialized country, the society would be in complete chaos by now.  The fact there hasn't yet been any mass scale looting and violence (at least reported) is amazing.  Of course, there's probably nothing in the stores to loot. lol.  Also no electricity to run any electronic gadgets or fuel for the cars, making them worthless hunks of metal.

You have to expect a mass exodus pretty soon.  How many more Cubans can Florida take?

This is definitely a great canary in the coal mine to watch.  Who will be the next significant country to hit the collapse wall?  I don't count African countries in this, except South Africa.  Euro, South America and SE Asia.

I could see Greece, Argentina or Thailand hitting the wall in the next couple of years.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/26/cuba-power-grid-failure-financial-crisis

'There is no money': Cuba fears total collapse amid grid failure and financial crisis

RE

Looks like Santa Fe is  taking lessons from the Cubans.

https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/santa-fe-northern-new-mexico/santa-fe-couple-frustrated-amid-continued-power-outages/

Santa Fe couple frustrated amid continued power outages

RE