Quote from: RE on Apr 09, 2024, 06:31 PM

Quote from: K-Dog on Apr 09, 2024, 06:22 PMThese guys make for an interesting conversation.

2 hours?  Can you give us a brief synopsis of this marathon talk fest?  Maybe give us the time on a coupe of highlights?  Last time I listened to Simon I was not impressed.

RE

Simon knows his stuff. Not on the petroleum geology side, as demonstrated by prior work related to oil in his Geologic Survey of Finland writeup. Screwed that pooch pretty badly on the reference side, but he might not know any better, as his work was mostly internet based, and the internet tends to provide the information you want, as opposed to the full spectrum answer you think you've gotten. Makes sense though, Finland doesn't have dick for oil, it isn't like he interviewed the USGS folks who do inside and out. But he has interesting credentials and experience on the hard rock side.

But the one you REALLY missed was IVER!!! Mr. Lofling if you want to be formal. School art teacher, built an electric car on his own during the pre-2005 peaker days, was around peakoil.com (THE place to be for awhile) and has been a consistent declarer of every peak oil that came down the pike for decades now. An artist by trade, not a technical thought in his head so he was naturally behind the curve, but a born sucker for the idea for decades since his Peace Corp work, if not longer.

We have some friends in common, in that he runs his art shop on Swan island I believe, and I know homeowners there who occasionally hang with Iver. His wife passed recently, he still declares peak oil every time some new internet person tries to fire up the idea, and he ran for a seat in the Maine state legislature last election cycle. Lost.

But an interesting guy, and yet another of us geriatrics.

Quote from: TDoS on Sep 16, 2024, 10:05 AMBut an interesting guy, and yet another of us geriatrics.

Demographic result of the collapsing birth rate in industrial civilization.

RE

Quote from: RE on Sep 16, 2024, 12:53 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Sep 16, 2024, 10:05 AMBut an interesting guy, and yet another of us geriatrics.

Demographic result of the collapsing birth rate in industrial civilization.

RE

Iver doesn't care about that much. I tihnk he is another of those childless types lacking the experience of raising, caring for, dealing with and turning crying little sleep destroyers into college educated productive adults.

He was just another hanger on of peak oil with a better story than most. Got it wrong, as usual, and then moved on. Bought an ICE car later after his wife passed. Still has the art shop on the island I think.

Good newz for a change.  Demand Destruction at work!

https://marcellusdrilling.com/2024/11/ceo-of-pa-fracking-company-says-frackers-idle-hitting-rock-bottom/

CEO of PA Fracking Company Says Frackers Idle, Hitting Rock Bottom

RE

Quote from: RE on Nov 07, 2024, 09:10 AMGood newz for a change.  Demand Destruction at work!

https://marcellusdrilling.com/2024/11/ceo-of-pa-fracking-company-says-frackers-idle-hitting-rock-bottom/

CEO of PA Fracking Company Says Frackers Idle, Hitting Rock Bottom

RE

I recall you once claiming that for fun you and some of those smart New Yorkers chosen by the Illuminati or the Ivy League or somebody once sat around and played out economic scenarios proving like illogical outcomes for fun?

This one is easy. How much fracking do you think SHOULD be taking place when the net back commodity price to the producer is <$0/mcf?

Quote from: TDoS on Nov 07, 2024, 07:16 PMThis one is easy. How much fracking do you think SHOULD be taking place when the net back commodity price to the producer is <$0/mcf?

That's the reason it's Good Newz.  As I said when the IEA projections came out if the oil price on the futures market dropped further (it was $75 at the time) the frackers would have to shut down production because below $70 there's little orofit in it.  Price currently is $71.80, it was briefly below $70 today and a few days ago it went below $69.

The FSoA has become the world's biggest producer as a result of the fracking boom.  But once the fracking isn't profitable, the export will dry up.  Cheap oil producers can still sell, namely the Saudis, Iranians and Ruskies.

Even at $70, many countries can't afford the oil and they are dropping out of the market, on their way back to 17th Century living.  Cuba's well on the way, and I'll bet Greece is having trouble keeping the lights on too.  As these countries lose access to the credit markets, they lose access to the money to buy the oil.  Unless the IMF helicopters in new loans, they're fucked.  The Cubans are sanctioned, so they're fucked.  Greece maybe gets another round of generosity from the IMF.  The Chinese have their own economic problems so their oil demand is down too.

All in all, the economics don't look too good for the frackers.  This would have been fun to screw with in the Blackboard Contests in the basement of Havermeyer Hall while smoking hash with the other elves & stoners from the physics and math departments.  I think that's what you were referring to.

RE

Quote from: RE on Nov 07, 2024, 09:38 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Nov 07, 2024, 07:16 PMThis one is easy. How much fracking do you think SHOULD be taking place when the net back commodity price to the producer is <$0/mcf?

That's the reason it's Good Newz.  As I said when the IEA projections came out if the oil price on the futures market dropped further (it was $75 at the time) the frackers would have to shut down production because below $70 there's little orofit in it.

The "fracker" in the article is a service company. E&Ps make the decision to drill, complete, and produce oil and gas. The fracker makes his money off providing a service, the E&P decides if it wants to drill any more wells because of a given price.

And obviously all plays have higher and lower quality geology, so even at $70/bbl, there is money to be made. Just in a more limited geographic area.

Price is then linked directly to the estimated amount of additional oil available across a given area. More price, more oil, less price, less oil, and service companies living or dying off of the activity at any given momeent along the way.

Quote from: REPrice currently is $71.80, it was briefly below $70 today and a few days ago it went below $69.

So on the chart, looks like there is some 3 billion barrels available at $68/bbl in the Eagle Ford. All US shale plays obviously have charts like this, they are hard to find though. They answer too many questions that folks would rather speculate on.

Quote from: REAll in all, the economics don't look too good for the frackers.
RE

Service companies certainly lay people off far faster than those who own and sell the oil do. Of course, they also hire far quicker when the price increases.

Quote from: TDoS on Nov 08, 2024, 02:59 PMService companies certainly lay people off far faster than those who own and sell the oil do. Of course, they also hire far quicker when the price increases.

Sure.  The issue is how long does the low price persist?

If it's short term, say a couple of months, the worker goes on UE and takes a vacation in Vegas until the price rebounds and his old boss calls him up and says "Hey Joe, we need you to leave the hookers and bring your 6-pack here to Eagle Ford to destroy a little more of the environment for your old salary of $100/hr.", or whatever the going rate is for expert Frackers.

If the EIA projections are right though of a decade long Glut and persistently low prices. well Joe's UE runs out after 6 months and he's blown all his savings at the blackjack table and on cheap hookers, so he's either found some other type of work that pays decently or he's flipping burgers at Mickey Ds living in his retired parents basement mooching off their social security, or he's homeless living on skid row in LA in a cardboard box with a 6 pack of used needles next to his sleeping bag.

Far as how much oil is available at what price, this impacts the finance drones who dish out a pile of money so a given service company will start up again to offer J6P Fracker his old job back.  If the prediction is for high prices with plenty of oil available at said prices, the drone sees big profits and $$$ signs flash before his eyes and happily dishes out the money.  If on the other hand the prediction is for low prices with only 3 billion measely barrels available to frack up at a profit, he's not so willing to fork over the money for Joe's salary and leases on equipment etc etc etc.

Thus you get guys like this service company CEO moaning about the price and trying to figure out how he's going to keep his company going ad pay the mortgage on his $1M McMansion and the Tuition for his kids private school.  I feel really bad for him. lol.

RE

Quote from: RE on Nov 09, 2024, 02:33 AM

Quote from: TDoS on Nov 08, 2024, 02:59 PMService companies certainly lay people off far faster than those who own and sell the oil do. Of course, they also hire far quicker when the price increases.

Sure.  The issue is how long does the low price persist?

Always the question that professional economists will pontificate on endlessly. The good news being that if the EIA knows how much oil is available for a given price from a resource perspective, they know all the others in the US, and possibly the world (based on a paper they released some 7 or so years ago).

So then all their economists pontificate like all the other economists, the only difference being they seem to have a better geologically based foundation to match with it.

Quote from: REIf the EIA projections are right though of a decade long Glut and persistently low prices. well Joe's UE runs out after 6 months and he's blown all his savings at the blackjack table and on cheap hookers, so he's either found some other type of work that pays decently or he's flipping burgers at Mickey Ds living in his retired parents basement mooching off their social security, or he's homeless living on skid row in LA in a cardboard box with a 6 pack of used needles next to his sleeping bag.

I was laid off for a year during low prices. I didn't do any of the things you have speculated on. And then a call came in one day and it was just back to the races. Only layoff in my entire career. Many of those I worked with when we were called back had similar circumstances. The game is known, and it doesn't involve the behavior of gamblers and addicts. 

Service company folks already know what the future holds for them with lower prices. Because it happens all the time. Covid for example. Happens to drill rig crews same as completion crews, dozer operators, landmen, only when it gets really bad do the owners of the oil themselves start to cut jobs. The number of people, including myself, who left the field for an office job paying 50% less, is innumerable.

When the opportunity presents itself, you make a choice. Leaving the field was the smartest thing I ever did, my paycut was 65%. But it opened up entirely new career paths.

Quote from: REFar as how much oil is available at what price, this impacts the finance drones who dish out a pile of money so a given service company will start up again to offer J6P Fracker his old job back.

Halliburton doesn't "start up again". It never stopped. It just shrunk. Schlumberger sold all its assets to Liberty. Smart cookie, the guy who runs that one, I've had meetings with him in his local office. And Liberty will be doing the same thing. The only question is how fast and thoroughly a company battens down the hatches. Work doesn't STOP....there is just less of it. Hence the layoffs, and occasionally they'll sell off equipment that is multi-use/ Dozers, trucks, cranes, etc etc.  They can always buy more when activity fires up.

Quote from: REIf the prediction is for high prices with plenty of oil available at said prices, the drone sees big profits and $$$ signs flash before his eyes and happily dishes out the money.  If on the other hand the prediction is for low prices with only 3 billion measely barrels available to frack up at a profit, he's not so willing to fork over the money for Joe's salary and leases on equipment etc etc etc.

The industry doesn't function on predicted prices from others, they are quite capable of doing their own crystal ball reading. And then they prepare for it. They also use some of those quite sharp tools of stochastic modeling to decide when and how much to cut/sale/buy/hedge  as they have been taught by certain industry experts.  .

Quote from: REThus you get guys like this service company CEO moaning about the price and trying to figure out how he's going to keep his company going ad pay the mortgage on his $1M McMansion and the Tuition for his kids private school.  I feel really bad for him. lol.
RE

Perhaps I need to contact him to help him through tough times, as it sounds as though he really hasn't reached the level of major operator yet.

Quote from: TDoS on Nov 09, 2024, 07:30 AMI was laid off for a year during low prices. I didn't do any of the things you have speculated on.

Of course you didn't.  World class experts like yourself can shift gears, take a desk job, lecture at a college for a year, take a sabbatical and cruise the Grand Canyon on your Harley with your genius kids before sending them off to college, the world is your oyster!  You really should give the  poor despondent CEO a call and tell him how this is probably the greatest thing to ever happen to him, he can be just like you and be a big success in any career at all!  Your greatness and resilence knows no bounds!  Yellowstone could blow and you would forge a new career as a volcanic ash salesman. 

Really, is there any topic you can't turn into an opportunity to brag about how great you are?

You are back in the cooler for violating the no bragging rule.

RE

Currently at $68.  I wonder who still makes a profit when the price drops into the $50s?

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/WTI-Breaks-Below-70-as-Demand-Concerns-Drive-Bearish-Sentiment.html

WTI Breaks Below $70 as Demand Concerns Drive Bearish Sentiment

RE

Quote from: RE on Nov 11, 2024, 11:14 AM

Currently at $68.  I wonder who still makes a profit when the price drops into the $50s?

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/WTI-Breaks-Below-70-as-Demand-Concerns-Drive-Bearish-Sentiment.html

WTI Breaks Below $70 as Demand Concerns Drive Bearish Sentiment

RE

Socialization for the rich.  Taxes will subsidize the extraction of every last drop.  The crisis of 2008 showed what the FSOA is willing to do to keep the gravy train of our elite going.  As long as there are proles too stupid to wonder about the big picture, and rich narcissists to exploit them.  The game goes on.

Global fossil fuel subsidies on the rise despite calls for phase-out

It is capitalism and die.  The decision has been made.  Fundamental changes that could save the day will not be made.

Old newz.

https://www.dw.com/en/what-is-peak-oil-and-when-will-we-reach-it/a-70645124

What is 'peak oil' and when will we reach it?

RE

Quote from: RE on Nov 23, 2024, 01:57 PMOld newz.

https://www.dw.com/en/what-is-peak-oil-and-when-will-we-reach-it/a-70645124

What is 'peak oil' and when will we reach it?

RE

A collection of opinions without science of any kind.  Feel good propaganda.

Renewables are not replacing fossil fuels, all you have to do to blow these dumfucks away is cite this.


Atmospheric CO2

October 2024     422.38 ppm
October 2023     418.82 ppm

Annual change:     +0.85%

Fossil fuel use is accelerating.  This article is propaganda to put the sheep asleep.

Quote from: K-Dog on Nov 23, 2024, 10:51 PMRenewables are not replacing fossil fuels...

Fossil fuel use is accelerating.  This article is propaganda to put the sheep asleep.

Indeed.  The collective Energy Jones of the Post-Industrial AI Dependent Techno-Futuristic Billionaire Wet Dream* society is so insatiable in its demands for ever more gigajoules of energy it requires not only every drop of oil that can be fracked out of rock but also paving over entire ecosystems with PV panels and wind turbine arrays turning flocks of geese into airborne sushi.  The idea that there really are limits to energy consumption on a finite planet still is not grasped by the smartest guys in the room as they lead the sheeple on the yellow brick road to inevitable collapse and Everlasting Doomnation*.

Each day now as we move forward, there's some location where the city looks like it just had a fly-by Close Encounter of the Third Kind.


It won't be long before were all Cubans.

*- I'm claiming Coinage on these phrases.  You heard 'em here first. 

RE