As expected, the Frog Goobermint has collapsed and the new PM Grand Barnier has become the shortest serving PM in Frog history.  Which isn't really that long since France didn't become a Democracy until after Napoleon in the 1800s.  It also was a puppet state under Hitler during the years of the 3rd Reich.

So going in  to the New Year, France is without a budget and no way to pass one.  As we know from the regular budget crises and goobermint shutdowns here in the FSoA, Goobermint "collapse" doesn't really mean the end of the government or the system, all the career agency employees still have their jobs and elected officials still hold their positions.  They just can't pass any laws or make any decisions or major changes.  Usually here after a week or two  of minor disruptions of BAU some ssort of compromise is reached, some cans are kicked down the road and Da Goobermint gets back to setting up a bigger failure at a later date.  Nobody tries to really solve problems anymore, just put off thee day of reckoning to a later date.

Anyhow, I suspect the goobermint collapse in France will have somewhat more far-reaching consequences over there than we usually get from them back here, but we won't have an immediate descent into anarchy either.

French prime minister ousted in no-confidence vote, throwing country into deep uncertainty

https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/04/europe/france-no-confidence-vote-barnier-crisis-intl/index.html

RE

This article from the BBC points out how the current political instability in BOTH France and Germany makes the whole EU very weak as a political bloc, particularly since beyond their individual inability to agree on anything within their own borders, they also can't agree on policies with each other which will affect trade, tariffs, energy distribution and of course military alliances.

In all likelihood come the New Year, with the Frog Goobermint in disarray and The Donald sworn in as POTUS, Vlad the Impaler will use the opportunity to make a big push and finally crush the Fascists in Kyiv.  Without Frog and FSoA military aid, the Fascists will fold in pretty short order I suspect.

If Putin can finally get rid of the Fascists, the next step would be to install his own puppet goobermint in Kyiv, so instead of just splitting off Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk from Ukraine, he gets the whole package, which would improve his total border security situation.  This also puts him in control of just about all the oil pipelines flowing west from Turkey and Russia into Europe.

After that, I don't see Vlad pursuing any further military action,  The battle with the Anglo-Amerikan Empire will be mostly economic.  Besides France & Germany, all the rest of the EU countries are weak politically and economically, especially in the south.  I could see hm enticing Greece to leave the EU since they have been so fucked over by the IMF, and maybe even Spain or Italy.  Of course, that would really shift the balance of power, so it would test whether El Trumpo would be Isolationist or be manipulated by the Illuminati Globalists to maintain the New World Order as it has been orchestrated since the end of WWII.

Anyhow, as I said, 2025 begins a new phase in Collapse, so it will be a fun year for us Kollapsniks.



https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0q0zvvjj19o

Why France's turmoil is grave concern for Europe

More on the economic side of the Frog problems

https://www.dw.com/en/is-france-heading-for-an-economic-storm/a-70944682

Is France heading for an economic storm?

RE

"So I expect to see several more motions of censure, and several more falls of government – before eventually we start to wake up."

This sounds very entertaining, but besides being incredibly stupid, how long is this rinse-repeat cycle of goobermints being formed and then censured going to take before the eventual wake-up call?  In the mean time how does France function on a practical level?  Besides arguing, exactly what will the legislature actually DO if they can't pass any laws or spend any money or raise any taxes?

How does the EU as a whole function with the Frogs in a perpetual state of chaos as the politicians jump from lily pad to lily pad?  What will happen to the bond market during this game of ping-pong goobermints?

Collapse is so much fun.      There's always some new twist to consider.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czjd79yrlplo

Barnier downfall threatens to set a pattern for what lies ahead

RE

Quote from: RE on Dec 05, 2024, 03:43 AMMore on the economic side of the Frog problems

https://www.dw.com/en/is-france-heading-for-an-economic-storm/a-70944682

Is France heading for an economic storm?

RE

Do you think Europe will figure out their economies have been played by the Ukraine Proxy War to the advantage of the United States by deliberately making their energy expensive?  So expensive that they can't compete economically?

Germany was doing fine until the US turned off the gas and France has suffered from the loss too.  Britain hates Russia and always has, they are doing some of the playing along with the US.  They won't turn against Trump, but the rest of Europe could get very uncooperative if they decide to grow a brain.  Maybe what is going on in France is some turbulent brain growth?

If we could follow the money all would be known.

Quote from: K-Dog on Dec 05, 2024, 12:04 PMDo you think Europe will figure out their economies have been played by the Ukraine Proxy War to the advantage of the United States by deliberately making their energy expensive?  So expensive that they can't compete economically?

Oh, I think everybody understands the relationship between wars and energy prices and how these conflics are used to manipulate the price.  Whenever the price drops too low, some conflict (usually in MENA) heats up and the next day you read how the oil price jumped up on new of the conflict.  Add to that the direct economic sanctions where if you're a NATO ally you're not allowed to trade with Mother Russia or Iran I believe and you see easily how the market is controlled this way.

The problem for the Eurotrash is after all the years of the Cold War the fear of Communism and the old Soviet Union they still fear Russia, and nobody wants the shortages of goods and consumer items they remember from those days.  Collapse hasn't fully set in yet and life in the Western European countries generally is still better than in Russia.  Probably not true in Greece or Italy as in Germany and France, where economic austerity has been taking a toll for at least a decade.  However, this economic crisis in France could energize the left and their Communist Party, which as I said would really destabilize the New World Order as it has existed since WWII.

It's all a very delicate balance, so it's hard to predict how it will all shake out.  One thing is pretty certain though.

There will be BLOOD.

RE

Something I wasn't aware of, the Kraut Goobermint ALSO collapsed a month ago.  I knew Germany was having economic problems but I missed the newz the ruling coalition had fallen apart.  So both Germany and France are in essentially the same condition, which is rudderless with no captain and no faction with enough of a constituency to have a majority.

This of course is the Failure Point of Democracy, where you are supposed to have "majority rules" decision making.  There is no majority on any issue these days, it's all about pluralities with multiple opinions and PoVs.

With the society essentially floundering it's ripe for some type of movemement along with a charismatic leader to show up.    The problem there is a real lack of charisma globally. lol.  I mean really, is there anybody at all anywhere globally with vision who has a clear message that people could follow?  Nobody I can think of.  So we flounder our way into collapse.

Hard to figure how Europe will move forward from here.  Britain also is very weak, which means no leadership from any of the "Big 3" European nations of WWII.  There's no Churchill or d'Gaulle or hell even a Thatcher or Merkel who can function as a spokesperson, and leaders change as often as you change you underwear. Including the skid marks.

https://www.npr.org/2024/12/05/nx-s1-5217601/france-germany-europe-politics

France's toppled government adds to the European Union's bigger political problems

RE

Here's a foreign policy analysis from Responsible Statecraft.  This is the propaganda organ of the Quincy Institute think tank, which gets its funding from Soros and the Koch brothers.     As far as the Frogs & Krauts providing the military support for propping up the Ukie Fascists, that is not gonna happen anytime soon.  Neither one of them could even pass a resolution to buy bullets at the moment.

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/france-barnier-macron/

Europe's center is not holding

RE

This actually is more a full Eurozone issue than strictly a Frog problem, but wedon't have a thread for Euro politics and economics and I'm not sure we get enough artcles to warrant one.  I'm aalso not sure the Eurozone or EU are going to last long enough to need their own thread.

The EUhad a crisis when Greece went on the skids, and Brexit probably caused the Brits more problems than it did for the Frogs and Krauts at least initially,  But I find it hard to imagine how the EU can survive both France & Germany hitting the economic Brick Wall at the same time.  The ongoing military conflict in Ukraine adds to the total instability in the region.  It will be interesting to see if they can weather 2025 intact.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/19/germany-france-crisis-next-global-financial-crash

Germany and France are in crisis – is the next global financial crash brewing?

RE

More on the economic crisis in Europe, analyzing it's various systemic problems of lack of innovation and investment, aalong with its demographic aging problem and he inability to fund their pension, social welfare and military defense programs.

All this might lead many Amerikans to pat ourselves on the back with how forward thinking we are with all the money spent on R&D by behemoths like Google and Amazon, until you stop and think about what these innovations actually ARE .  It's all information based stuff combined with financialization, nothing really tangible is coming out of it. R&D on how to better spy on people and data mine their habits to sell things to them.  Besides, all this innovation isn't benefiting the Amerikan J6P, all the increases in productivity are going into increased profits for corporations and their stockholders and pay packages for upper level management.  The workers are losing ground just about as fast as their Eurotrash counterparts, and we never had the generous vacation time and cradle to grave social welfare programs they did.

The other reason not to get all happy about being the "winner" in the economic footrace with Europe is the same as feeling cheery about beating the Chinese, the 3rd major player with Europe and the FSoA in the global economic engine doesn't work.  Because it's a global economy, each of the players depends on the others to also be successful with what they are doing so everyone can afford to trade with everyone else.  They need to be able to buy what we sell and vica versa.  If any of the players descends into an economic depression, it drags the other ones down with it.  No man is an island, each depends on the other to succeed.

Europe's problems right now are so deep and have been brewing for so long it's hard to see how they can climb out of the hole they are in.  Which means that an economic crash is just about baked in the cake, along with a lot of political upheaval and radicalization, polarizing the political landscape.  In other words, it starts looking like the Europe of the 1930s, and we know how that played out.  Deja Vu all over again.

How long it will take for all these problems to crystallize into macroscopic outcomes like Depression and War is an open question.  Again if you take the 1930s as a roadmap, we're probably in 1930-31 now and ave 2-3 years before being fully in the grip of Depression, and 5-8 years before  Civil Wars like the Spanish one, followed by the continent spanning WWII.  Hard to say though because on the financial level things can happen so much quicker now.  The general direction is pretty clear though.

https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-economic-apocalypse/

Europe's economic apocalypse is now

RE

Europe's boot legging politicians are not popular.  People in Europe do not support NATO's Ukraine war.  Only their boot licking politicians do.

Europe is polarized by extreme wealth inequality the same as the United States.  Europe has a 1% that owns over 30 % of everything.

They have a small minority of idiots who think they know everything running the show.  Same as here.