Trumpovetsky's outstanding work in crashing the stock market has blown over into the bond market, which kills the traditional"flight to safety"   method normal investors use to protect their pile of money in a bear market.  Right now the only way to make money is to day trade and short sell the asset classes taking the biggest hits.  This is tough to do because you need to be in front of the trades and pay close attention to your Bloomberg terminal.  It takes a lot of trades so your broker fees can add up and cost more than you make.  Also helpful is to have inside information, which is of course illegal.  I'll bet dollars to doughnuts Trump has kept his broker fully in the loop of what tariffs are going down, on who and when.  IOW, INSIDER TRADING on steroids, which is a felony and fits under HIGH CRIMES & MISDEMEANORS.  Of course, the SEC would have to investigate and prosecute, which ain't gonna happen.  However, there are a few Billionaaire Hedge Fund managers who are getting pissed off who may look for other means to retaliate.  Nobody likes seeing Billions wiped off their portfolio value.

Bond rout starting to sound market alarm bells

https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-tariffs-bonds-2025-04-09/

Funny that. I heard about the US bond yields going up alarmingly and then soon after Trump calls a pause on his higher rate tariffs. The supposed reason for this pause being there were so many countries wishing to negotiate the US didn't have the capacity to listen to them all hence the 90 pause... Sounds like a load of bollocks.

It is amusing it came to this as during work much discussion was devoted to the ongoing developments of these tariff wars. In those numerous discussions the consistent message made was the belief that at some point Trump would back off but would only do so when he could frame a pause (or even a reversal in policy) in such a way that made him sound like he won the game. In the world of Trump he would rather let the world burn that to appear like he lost the "deal".

On the surface there is a 90 day reprieve (mostly anyway) but one has to wonder if he will actually start an act 2 after the three month has elapsed. What are you thoughts there?

One thought I was beginning to ponder was if this tariff talk kept escalating further and further and Trump didn't show any signs of backing off could there be a chance he may "accidentally" fall out of the window? I mean funny things do tend to happen if you piss off enough billionaires...

Quote from: monsta666 on Apr 09, 2025, 01:31 PMOn the surface there is a 90 day reprieve (mostly anyway) but one has to wonder if he will actually start an act 2 after the three month has elapsed. What are you thoughts there?

Already in Act 3. The idiot threatens, changes his mind, institutes something...for a day....offers a reprieve, changes the numbers, trumpets like a blubbering walrus, his BS is repetitive, intellectually lacking and shit if peak oil wasn't so yesteryear he would have his own website weaving it into his Chinese bad guys delusion. 

He's bouncing the rates around so fast it's like Meadowlark Lemon of the old Harlem Globetrotters bamboozling the Washington Senators around the point.  You couldn't possibly trade this in any rational fashion without knowing what he is going to do when he wakes up in the morning.  Hard to imagine how the boys at the customs department on the docks know what to charge on a shipment from day to day.  Did it arrive on Tuesday when it was 30% or Wednesday when it was 50%?


He's definitely losing support in the Senate over this issue, which is boiling over into the budget negotiations.  This is going to make passing any budget extremely difficult.  At this point Act III would be a Goobermint Shutdown.

He's also likely to lose the House in the midterm elections, which will completely lock up the legislative agenda in Act IV, at which point he'll start blaming the Demodopes to rev up his MAGAotts.

Will he last the whole 4 years?  Not if he keeps this up.

RE

500%?  They might as well make buying Chinese illegal.

RE

Quote from: Goldernen Oxernen on Apr 10, 2025, 01:16 PMSo the 30 day pause applies to every country except China. Instead, theyre talking about 500% tariff on China, up from about 120% going both ways at present. There are no alternate suppliers for a lot of things made in China. Unless it gets bypassed, If they  go ahead with a suicidal 500%, there should be empty shelves in a month tops.

This is to some extent good news. For entertainment value if nothing else. After waiting around for decades for SOMETHING doom like to occur (seriously, gasoline rationing in Pennsylvania during global peak oil in 1979 was the last REAL thing) it will be interesting to see how the market reacts to consumers not getting something they want.

Quote from: Goldernen OxernenHow much chinese components go into American cars, trucks and tractors, or spare parts? Significant amount for sure, especially on the hybrids and EVs.

Indeed. And how many parts of ANY kind have I put into ANY of my EV's, spanning some quarter million miles now?

None.

And I just bought my first BRAND NEW EV....I figure it's good for the kind of 6 figure mileage other ones were without needing much. Like....3 moving parts in the drive train....and  the ones that don't move don't appear to break.

Quote from: RE on Apr 09, 2025, 02:27 AM IOW, INSIDER TRADING on steroids, which is a felony and fits under HIGH CRIMES & MISDEMEANORS.  Of course, the SEC would have to investigate and prosecute, which ain't gonna happen.

Remember, you heard it here first! 

Well-timed options trades ahead of Trump's tariff pause draw questions

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/well-timed-options-trades-ahead-trumps-tariff-pause-draw-questions-2025-04-10/

RE

Which of the named reasons is responsible for the bond selloff?  All of the above.  I'll bet liquidity is a big problem for the hedge funds that use a lot of leverage is the biggest driver and second the Chinese are quietly dumping enough to keep the pressure on without wholesale flooding the market.

In any case, whatever the reason, once they come up with a budget they're going to have a mighty hard time financing the ballooning deficit.  If the debt-GDP ratio surpasses 130%, default becomes a significant threat.  98% of countries default at that level.

Where will people go to try and protect their personal piles of moolah?  Gold?  Crypto?  The game is afoot!

https://apnews.com/article/treasurys-bond-market-yield-tariff-46b4818710f01b8cc93fd002081167b0

Freak sell-off of 'safe haven' US bonds raises fear that confidence in America is fading

RE

This certainly takes the sting out of the Chinese tariffs.  Is there anything else really important we get from China that can't be sourced elsewhere?

Smartphones and computers are now exempt from Trump's latest tariffs

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/12/tech/trump-electronics-china-tariffs/index.html

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 09, 2025, 02:27 AM IOW, INSIDER TRADING on steroids, which is a felony and fits under HIGH CRIMES & MISDEMEANORS.  Of course, the SEC would have to investigate and prosecute, which ain't gonna happen.

Remember, you heard it here first! 

Well-timed options trades ahead of Trump's tariff pause draw questions

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/well-timed-options-trades-ahead-trumps-tariff-pause-draw-questions-2025-04-10/

RE