Ask him.

https://www.artberman.com/

According to the recording, he has the website to allow people to get in touch with him.

Quote from: K-Dog on Aug 22, 2025, 06:56 PMAsk him.

https://www.artberman.com/

According to the recording, he has the website to allow people to get in touch with him.

I already have. When he was in Denver and revealed he was a history major before he decided to become a geologist...who didn't know the history of horizontal wells. He took questions. When he was on TOD, and made up OpX numbers on shale gas wells and made the mistake of putting a number to them in front of someone who knew the right answer. I was part of the audience that snickered when John stopped him in the middle of presentation at the national AAPG meeting in Texas (turns out you really shouldn't misrepresent the work of national caliber professionals when they are running the session). And when he attempted to introduce EROEI into the AAPG CORE (Committee on Resource Evaluation) committee topics for professional study the chairmen stopped in the office and asked me what my recommendation was.

There is a reason he does a...blog....thingie. No credibility after his October 2011 news conference. But for entertainment value in the world of geosciences, the guy is priceless.

So would you say an old dog can't learn new tricks?

No excuses for them, but anybody who gets in the public eye is going to experience extreme social distortion.  Group think takes over.  Combine that with the relentless expectations with no time off in the public eye, and mistakes will be made.

I have a Stoic humility, but the engine in my brain-pan does run high rpms, and really I have not met a person in my life who does not express some brain-dead bullshit which makes no sense, and which is not related to the actual material conditions of our existence even by a stretch of the imagination if I hear anyone talk for more than five minutes. 

I am forced to admit a sort of 'superiority' and I really don't like it.  But the truth is the world is filled with stupidinos, who spend most of their energy just trying to appear normal.  People who absorb much, but learn little.

It is impossible for me to 'follow' anyone, and when I have met 'guru' types in my life, they quickly identify me as competition or as an outright enemy.  If two Buddhas met each other on the road they would most certainly kill each other.  200% !

Bottom line - As everyone wears the mask of the idiot if you pay enough attention, then relying on 'reputation' to judge the quality of their truth is a fools errand. 

Pay attention to the message and ignore the messenger.

And concerning true idiots, even those motherfuckers are right twice a day.  Just like clocks.

Quote from: K-Dog on Aug 23, 2025, 03:15 PMSo would you say an old dog can't learn new tricks?

Do you mean can a geologist who publically stated that the US doesn't have much oil in shales, learn....something new? I would presume he can learn something new, yes.

I've been watching his updates since he fired up his new website circa Dec 28, 2023 or so. The first title annoucement he then released on January 10, 2024. "Beginning of the End for the Permian"

How much did he learn between 2011 and thinking there wasn't much oil in US shales and this blog post? You tell me.

Quote from: K-DogNo excuses for them, but anybody who gets in the public eye is going to experience extreme social distortion.  Group think takes over.  Combine that with the relentless expectations with no time off in the public eye, and mistakes will be made.

By "public eye" do you mean anyone belting out blog stuff? And then "relentless expectations" come from believing that because it is online it has value?

Quote from: K-DogI am forced to admit a sort of 'superiority' and I really don't like it.  But the truth is the world is filled with stupidinos, who spend most of their energy just trying to appear normal.  People who absorb much, but learn little.

Hey! Something we completely agree with!

Quote from: K-DogBottom line - As everyone wears the mask of the idiot if you pay enough attention, then relying on 'reputation' to judge the quality of their truth is a fools errand.

Well good thing with Art we have him being silly in 2011 and still doing it in 2023. So rather than knowing much of anything in any moment, he has CONSISTENCY on just always getting things wrong? Like a perfect counter-indicator? He portrays it as true....you can instantly discount every word.

Quote from: K-DogPay attention to the message and ignore the messenger.

Always reasonable. So Art proves he doesn't know anything about oil production in 2011...and proves his consistency by doing it again in 2023....we can ignore the messenger and know only that whomever the messenger is, they don't appear to know anything about oil.

Quote from: K-DogAnd concerning true idiots, even those motherfuckers are right twice a day.  Just like clocks.

So if motherfuckers can be right twice a day, doesn't that make someone being wrong across more than a decade twcie is even WORSE than being a true idiot? More like...a SUPER true idiot?

I was told there were huge reserves of shale oil way back in 1975, the issue then was how to get it economically.  You will argue the point, but how to get it was not mainstream knowledge.

Estimates since 2015 suggest that the best parts of the Permian Basin may reach an EROEI of 7–10:1, but the average across U.S. shale is still closer to an EROEI of 5:1.  It takes a lot more money to get the same oil than it used to.

I think economic conditions will give us a Seneca Cliff of production after which taxes will be used to pump oil so you can then buy it.  Socialism for the rich.  Shit for everyone else.

The big picture is far more complicated than how much black stuff is in the rocks.

Quote from: K-Dog on Aug 23, 2025, 04:08 PMI was told there were huge reserves of shale oil way back in 1975, the issue then was how to get it economically.  You will argue the point, but how to get it was not mainstream knowledge.

You would need to be more specific about "shale oil". That term in its proper geologic use designates "kerogen" (which is a solid, and not oil), and estimates of its size measuring in the potential trillions of barrels exists in the western basins in the Green River Fmt/Piceance if memory serves and the USGS quantified it a couple years ago, just for fun.

1.5 trillion or so, in the Piceance Basin...Utah and Colorado mostly I believe, the stuff Jimmy Carter was going to use to fight global peak oil in 1979.

https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2009/3012/pdf/FS09-3012.pdf

This work was done by Ron who is a real geologist and knows damn well what he is saying when he opens his mouth. He came looking for me to have an interesting conversation about halfway through his research when he was wanting to discuss methodology ideas for quantifying these volumes.

This ISN'T the shale oil, referred to by the EIA as LTO, which includes both "oil from shales" (light sweet crude sitting there in-situ and produced directly from the rock (unlike kerogen) and oil from low permeability rocks. That "shale oil" is liquid, estimates of viability under $200/bbl measured in some fraction of a trillion barrels.

The kerogen was of interest in the late 70's when Jimmy was trying to save the world and Exxon hadn't yet scrapped the Colony project.

Quote from: K-DogEstimates since 2015 suggest that the best parts of the Permian Basin may reach an EROEI of 7–10:1, but the average across U.S. shale is still closer to an EROEI of 5:1.  It takes a lot more money to get the same oil than it used to.

Companies when evaluating their Permian LTO use IRR as their metric of doing something or not, EROEI calculations are irrelevant. The academics have certainly had fun with the idea, but no company to my knowledge and relationships spanning 5 decades, or my knowledge of the history of O&G development has ever reported it to shareholders or stockholders, CEOS are not delivered progress reports on improving it, they don't calculate it in advance of development to pick well sites or develop acquisition plans (XOM certainly didn't do it prior to acquiring Pioneer), and it is as meaningful as the phases of the moon when it comes to deciding what and when and where to drill.

So some EROEI somewhere calculated by someone is X over here and Y very there? Ok, I'll take your word for it.

Quote from: K-DogI think economic conditions will give us a Seneca Cliff of production after which taxes will be used to pump oil so you can then buy it.  Socialism for the rich.  Shit for everyone else.

No Seneca Cliff maybe as drilling rates have't cratered, but I'll let you in on something that folks in the media and internet "experts" don't seem to have spotted...but the data sits right there.

Buried on this chock-a-block page full of information for the public:
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/
there is Table 9. Crude oil production from the WPSR is the top line. Go check out the history of the US over the past year. PEAK OIL AGAIN! Whoo Hooo! I wonder if my peak oil consulting will skyrocket again? Those days were fun.

Quote from: K-DogThe big picture is far more complicated than how much black stuff is in the rocks.

Of course it is. Except for the real diehard peak oilers, to whom it is the only thing. There aren't many of them left, having been burned by their ignorance so often, and so hard, this century.