Quote from: K-Dog on Aug 01, 2023, 12:37 AM

Quote from: ed_from on Jul 31, 2023, 09:11 PMI thought we were running out of affordable fossil fuels and bad stuff was supposed to happen. Are we there yet?

Considering that I once bought gas for 17 cents a gallon in a gas war and getting to and from work now sucks up about an hour of the work shift, the answer is an unequivocal yes.

Indeed. When global peak oil clobbered the world in 2018 it first caused Covid, and then destroyed the ability of average cage owners to drive cheaply to work. Miles driven increased all across America as people sacrificed other things, like a danish on their way to work, went to the movies one less time each month....it was horrible. 

Having paid $0.25/gallon for gasoline in olden times, and then suffered when the 1979 global peak oil hit and the rationing in the US kicked in, in certain states, it is reasonable to ask why the 2018 global peak didn't seem to have near the same effect. I mean...peakers just seem to have vanished from the internet by the time it happened, rather than standing around preening over how accurate their claims had been. Not all the wrong ones of course going back to 1990, but the ones they made for 2018....oh...except I don't think they made any of those. More than anything peak oil seems to coincide with the disappearance of peak peakers more than anyone even noticing increased fuel costs.

Hard to say. Of course, folks who wanted that danish back, or that movie they miss, can just get an EV and pay 1/10th the fuel cost and get back those danish and movie costs, even 7 years after peak oil now.

It seems to me you feel like an ant walking across a pick-nick tablecloth.  You are in the middle of the table, and as far as your two ant-eyes can see the tablecloth goes on forever.  No cliff at the edge to fall from.

America depends on cheap transportation, and electric vehicles are not cheap.  If America's car fleet goes fully electric we need 30% more electricity.  Can we do that and have A.I..  I do not think so.  Drill baby drill won't do it, and even if it could; oh yeah, there is that climate thing.  Increased electrification is showing to be a problem.

The edge of the table is the Seneca cliff, where everything goes to shit.  By some cherry-picked measures food cost is up over 200% in three years.  The cliff approaches.

If all you do is look at Hubbert's Peak and debate if and when peak oil happens you really do not understand the situation.  Reality does not match the pretty textbook graph, but the takeaway is there is an actual peak.  And regardless how convoluted the peak is, there is a peak followed by a decline in production.  Where life as we know it falls apart.

By concentrating on the shape of the peak you deny the table has an edge.

* Drill baby drill is showing reduced 'oil' cost on the graph.  Enjoy that while it lasts.  Like a person with a credit card out of control, our nation will reckon with consequences from this short term fix.

Quote from: K-Dog on Sep 17, 2025, 11:54 AMAmerica depends on cheap transportation, and electric vehicles are not cheap.

My brand new 2025 EV cost 58% of your heat pump. Neither was cheap....but when new vehicles cost less than HEAT PUMPS by that much? Folks don't get to pretend they are unaffordable. Of course, high net worth individuals such as you and I have different perspectives of what is "not cheap" ...or not....compared to those lacking our financial advantage.

Quote from: K-DogIf America's car fleet goes fully electric we need 30% more electricity.  Can we do that and have A.I..  I do not think so.  Drill baby drill won't do it, and even if it could; oh yeah, there is that climate thing.  Increased electrification is showing to be a problem.

Just throw all of this, and oversumption of everything else by gluttonous Americans into one big pile and I agree with you.

Good thing Americans haven't forgotten to build nukes I guess, and SOMEONE sooner or later is going to get the fusion thing going.

Do you know that Catton listed things humans were able to do, to change their fortunes in the past in his book "Overshoot"? In that book, relatively early he has a chart, listing the things humans have done along the way to be more than clever monkeys.

I've got a digital copy, I recommend folks who don't have one get one, and check it out. And then we can discuss what will stop humans from adding another evolution of technological change to that list. Or maybe even two?

Quote from: K-DogIf all you do is look at Hubbert's Peak and debate if and when peak oil happens you really do not understand the situation.

I am a technical expert first, so of course being able to solve peak oil was step one. If only to insert that modeling effort into those of others. So that together we both will then understand the situation, it is called collaboration among scientists with common interests and different specialties. We are better together than alone.

So of course I pay attention to the situation, not just my part of it, but theirs as well.

Do you have any idea how much money the Sloan Foundation dishes out to these kinds of multi-disiplianry efforts to answer qustions? A bunch. Ever seen resilience.org talk about the size of their project with them? And if not, why do you think not?

Quote from: K-DogReality does not match the pretty textbook graph, but the takeaway is there is an actual peak.

Yes. Indeed. So does everyone else who can check the EIA International Energy statistics for global oil production and discover....lookee there! 2018 global peak oil.

Any thoughts on why it has gone so unnoticed for so long? If indeed it is more important than some of the others in the past?