Nobody cares about how much is left.  All people care about is how much it costs.  'Sustainability' it is a long word which is easy to spell right, but in America it is a foreign concept.

Listening to this guy I realized that people reify the oil market.  Inside the box, we can't think outside of it.  The presenter makes 'the oil market' into a thing which we have a responsibility to take care of.  Like the oil market was a living thing.  Like it was a pet rock with feelings to worry about.  As if the life of a useless eater was a god-given right.  That god only cares about our current generation and not what comes later.

Quote from: K-Dog on Feb 11, 2025, 05:03 AMNobody cares about how much is left.  All people care about is how much it costs. 

It has always been a travesty that 10 seconds after Hubbert's bell shaped curves came out, experts weren't converting them to resource cost curves. Certainly the EIA, the only group of the early 21st century who's global peak oil estimate hasn't been dispatched by more oil yet, knows about the need for knowing how much it costs.

And then an entire generation of folks began just spewing out bell shaped curves without even asking about the thing, as K-Dog says, that people really care about.
 

THEHONESTSORCERER.MEDIUM.COM • 2024-08-05

Has Peak Oil Become Self-Evident Yet?

Only electrification can save us — or maybe not.


Much of the big gains during the past forty or so years came from revisions.  Adding numbers to proven reserves on paper only — ostensibly reflecting changes in drilling technology, moving previously uneconomic to exploit resources into the reserves category.

Based on recent analysis of U.S. production data, a near-term peak for American fracked (tight) oil is imminent, likely occurring within the next two years.

Does that put things in perspective?



DW.COM • 2025-12-27

Peak oil: Why the world can't break its fossil fuel habit

Climate change shifted the oil production debate from scarcity to demand. If countries do not deliver on ambitious green pledges, one expert predicts that production may peak within two years, forcing a chaotic decline.

QuoteAfter 15 intense years, we are arriving at the end of the fracking road," Turiel said. "We can keep up the mirage for an additional year or two, but afterwards the fall is going to be incredibly fast.

According to the EIA IES stats last I looked global peak oil hit in 2018. So Hubbert and his mid-90's estimate wasn't off by more than a couple of decades. But who cares? Solutions are here, local gasoline is < $2.00/gal.

EVs blowing out the door with huge discounts, a fraction of the fuel costs and near zero maintenance? I say let those devoted to liquid fuels just keep paying through the nose for liquid fuels as punishment.

13k miles on mine and....I've rotated the tires twice (both freebies), and am averaging approximately 1.3 cents/mile for electrons.  Peak oil? Well...might need to change the tranny gear lube in another 50,000 miles....couple quarts. If global peak oil currently at the 8 year mark isn't delivering much in the way of results, well, then I doubt prices for the gear oil will be very high even a couple years from now.

The price of oil is near the bottom of collapse issues at the moment.  Half the world is too busy being bombed back to the stone age to burn it.  Great conservation technique.  Leaves plenty for Happy Motoring in the other half.

RE

Quote from: RE on Jan 05, 2026, 04:52 PMThe price of oil is near the bottom of collapse issues at the moment.

Well....CRAP! Oil was a good one, rather than the slower and longer term climate change and whatnot. No wonder even 8 years after it happened no one seems to care. An attention span thing maybe!

Quote from: REHalf the world is too busy being bombed back to the stone age to burn it.  Great conservation technique.  Leaves plenty for Happy Motoring in the other half.

RE

Ah, consumption is still headed up, whomever is getting bombed must have been stone age in the first place.

Quote from: TDoS on Jan 05, 2026, 05:07 PMAh, consumption is still headed up, whomever is getting bombed must have been stone age in the first place.

No, their consumption now gets replaced fueling the planes necessary to bomb them.

RE

Quote from: RE on Jan 05, 2026, 05:20 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Jan 05, 2026, 05:07 PMAh, consumption is still headed up, whomever is getting bombed must have been stone age in the first place.

No, their consumption now gets replaced fueling the planes necessary to bomb them.

RE

So then it certainly isn't a great conservation technique, is it, as it drives consumption up rather than down.

True.

RE