In an address on Wednesday evening, Trump said "regime change has occurred" in Iran, and that the US is "on track to fulfill all its objectives very soon."  "Never in the history of warfare has an enemy suffered such clear and devastating large-scale losses in a matter of weeks," Trump said.

How long?  That's EZ.  Indefinitely.

Hegseth just fired the top General, undoubtedly because he informed him of this fairly obvious statate of affairs.

While the Iranian regime can survive even while their infrastructure gets bombed back to the stone age and anyone who has a problem with that there will be given a first class ticket to join his ancestors, Trumpolini and the rest of the industrialized nations can only last until the Bond Vigilantes reprice USTs to the value of the toilet paper they're printed on.  At a certain point in this mess, our friends at the PBoC will exercise the Nuclear Option, and I'm not talking about the kind loaded onto ICBMs.  The FSoA has $30T in debt that has to be rolled over, and they're not gonna find a whole lotta buyers while the oil is penned up in the Gulf of Oman.  Considering relations with the Eurotrash, Da Fed isn't gonna be able to use the Belgians to buy their own debt either, and mortgages and corporate paper interest rates spike as a result.  PK & M E-E know this, but they would spook the market if they said it.  I am under no such constraint. 😀

"Whether Trump walks away or escalates by putting US troops on the ground, there is no clear path towards to removing Tehran's ability to exert leverage over supplies.  A quick victorious war and a quick regime change in Tehran do not look plausible.

"If the bar for the Iranian regime is sustaining some low-level threat to the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, it can likely do this for the foreseeable future," said Campbell."

Indeed.  What does look plausible is a credit lockup that makes 2008 look like the days of wine & roses.

RE

A brief review of American naval history shows how this shift came about, and casts doubt on whether Washington is ready for the future of naval war.


One of the main problems with military strategists is they often build their armies based on their experience in the last war.  This leads to building systems easily defeated or circumvented by new technologies or strategies.  The Maginot Line is the classic example, built based on the experience of WWI, it was vulnerable to the "Blitzkrieg" strategy pursued by the Nazis in WWII.

The same is now true for the Carrier Group, the very expensive flagship of FSoA Naval Power which has been used to dominate the world militarily since WWII.  Those days are over, which some military strategists realize, but dimwits like Trumpolini and most Repugnant War Hawks don't yet grasp.

I have explained many times in the past why the Normandy style invasion of WWII could never be pulled off today by either the FSoA, China or Russia, the 3 biggest military powers.  Ships at sea are simply too slow moving and vulnerable to much cheaper ballistic & cruise missiles and unmanned drones.  A ship full of grunts heading for some beach is much more likely to have Davey Jones Locker as its final destination than a beachhead.

This is a big playing field leveler for poorer, less technologically advanced countries, and the effectiveness of war to achieve political or economic control over other countries has become vastly diminished.  Perhaps this reality will be grasped in the aftermath of this war.

As it stands, we look to be moving into a period of economic siege warfare, where the side that can last longest under deprivations of war is most likely to win.  Winning here is a relative term though, since both sides are economically damaged by the war.  It's not even a Zero Sum Game, it's negative for everyone.  It will be a very expensive lesson for those who advocate for war to solve political and economic conflict.

RE

A reward will be given to the person who captures the American pilot alive, Iranian state television announced.  According to the statement, the police department of the Kohgiluyeh region has promised a reward to those who assist in capturing the pilot or pilots of a US fighter jet shot down in Iranian airspace.