[K-Dog]

I understand that you have been a collapse enthusiast from way back. After waiting for it probably all of this century, your only response is really only "just wait". We have been.

And collapse should adhere to your personal schedule why?

Collapse is inherent in the material conditions of our civilization.  The physics of these conditions determines how, and how fast collapse will play out.  It is certainly not subject to our whims.

[RE]

I understand that you have been a collapse enthusiast from way back. After waiting for it probably all of this century, your only response is really only "just wait".

Bear Stearns collapsed in March 2008, so not all of the new millenium. 17 years 10 months.

I'm not saying "just wait".  I am saying it's "in progress".  Picking up speed now also.

RE

[RE]

Garrison Gibson, a Liberian man, was arrested after agents used a battering ram to bust into his home last weekend. A federal judge ordered ICE to release Gibson on Thursday, which it did, only to arrest him again on Friday. He was then released again.

"I'm just scared to go outside. I'm scared of them," said Daisy Martinez, whose husband Tomas Martinez Gregorio was arrested on New Year's Eve in the suburb of Brooklyn Park. The couple had been pulled over by agents while driving their six-year-old son to the hospital for a tonsillectomy. While her son was in the backseat, multiple agents pinned her to the car and took Tomas. "It's almost as if he was kidnapped," she said.

Now Martinez said she's unsure every day what to tell her son – who has started to see a therapist to help him cope in the aftermath of what he's witnessed. "He does tell me that he doesn't want to go to school," Martinez said. "He doesn't want me to be taken away too."

How often does this have to occur before you can say democracy and civil rights are collapsing?  How many armed masked men roaming the streets disappearing brown people does it take?

At lunchtime, one of the only restaurants open on East Lake was an American diner. At least four Mexican restaurants in that block had been shut, indefinitely.

Approximately 80% of immigrant-run businesses in Minneapolis and St Paul had been closed this week amid the ICE crackdown, and sales at these businesses had plummeted since late December.

One has to wonder how hotels and restaurants in MPLS can continue to function.  Maids,  Dishwashers, Janitors etc in the hospitality biz are just about all immigrants.  What's the effect on the GDP & tax revenue?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/17/minneapolis-twin-cities-ice-dispatch

'Make no mistake, this is an occupation': ICE's deadly presence casts long shadow over Minneapolis

RE

[RE]

File this under the smartphone video is mightier than the tear gas and rubber bullet?😒

Somehow I have a feeling that UToob videos will not dissuade Il Duce Trumpolini from terrorizing every Demodope controlled sanctuary big shity.  More likely it has the opposite effect of his doubling down on the tactics, sending EVEN MOAR masked thugs and authorizing EVEN GREATER amounts of gratuitous violence.  Which as this article explicitly states may end up instigating the CIVIL WAR he obviously wants.  Face it: the Trumpenator racism is so virulent that merely deporting brown people won't satisfy him.  He won't be happy until there are mountains of brown meat packages being stuffed into body bags.👿

One can only hope enough Repugnant CONgress Critters will join with the Demodopes to get Impeachment rolling before the elections.  Probability of things staying peaceful long enough for them to even be held grows slimmer by the day.

https://www.theverge.com/policy/863632/minnesota-walz-trump-sousveillance-ice

Trump's War on America

RE

[K-Dog]

Yes, the ample warnings to protesters 'you haven't learned' means that more ICE cretins will soon be getting their bag limit.

We have gone from standing on the border being probable cause to search and seize to the country even having a border being probable cause to search and seize.  Logic creep.

And using the same nonlinear Venn diagram, presidential immunity has been extended downstream to the president's thugs.

Why?  BECAUSE WE HAVE NEVER HAD A SUPREME COURT WITHOUT RACISTS, THAT'S WHY.


The motto for the current supreme court should be 'give an idiot a horse and fools will ride'.  This is a legal principle that normal and balanced people are very aware of.  But, as white people can do no wrong, our Supreme Court is fine with fools doing what they do.

Our Supreme Court uses more sophisticated logic.

Trump is B.  A is Kristi Noem and all her thugs.  Since A is owned by B all the properties of B must extend to A.

If you can understand this logic, and have deep roots in the system, you too might be a top dog someday.

[TDoS]

I went somewhere I was not supposed to go and learned things that 'Operational Security' did not want revealed.  As I was not subject to any security agreement the only way to silence me was to fuck with my head.

So was this the Burning Platform / Kuntsler story you have mentioned in the past?

[TDoS]

I understand that you have been a collapse enthusiast from way back. After waiting for it probably all of this century, your only response is really only "just wait". We have been.

And collapse should adhere to your personal schedule why?

I have no requirement at all for a collapse schedule. I only note that incessant claims of it happening, in the past, present or future, are a characteristic of the doomer genre. And religions in general. An interesting correllation itself. I note that collapse is a powerful background driver across nearly all doomer type topics. I only even paid it any attention when I identified it as such a common driver within my area of expertise. Across decades of pushing into the "why" people fell for peak oil, turns out it was an easy answer. It was easily configured to feed a collapse scenario. Much more effective in a modern, interconnected and "educated" world than just pitching The Book of Revelations to the rubes. Koresh and Jim Jones and Heavens Gaters were all doomers, and made such an excellent pitch that people sacrificed themselves to their ideas. 

I have no schedule for "collapse" (quotes to designate RE's accepted definition) at all. I am happy to acknowledge that it has happened before (just ask the dinosaurs) and is required to happen again (the Sun is getting lighter by 40 million tons a second). Within these completely reasonable concepts (throw in a decent GRB to if you'd like) there  are these biological organisms living in a thin layer of organic material on the 3rd rock from our particular G-type yellow dwarf star who will be goners one way or another. Humans just seem to have a fascination with the how, why and when, going back millenium. I mark this up to nothing more than a recognition of mortality, both at the individual and species level.

Arguing over collapse is like two fleas arguing about if they can hold their breath longer than the human can stay when they dive into a pond and swim underwater. Just fleas....along for the ride.....

Collapse is inherent in the material conditions of our civilization.  The physics of these conditions determines how, and how fast collapse will play out.  It is certainly not subject to our whims.

Not just our civilization. And of course the physics. Peak oil will follow physics as well, the enthusiasts just never understood what, if anything, bell shaped curves had to do with it.

[TDoS]

Bear Stearns collapsed in March 2008, so not all of the new millenium. 17 years 10 months.

Oh please. Such a 21st century perspective. Try The Panic of 1907 instead. And yet the 20th century ended up becoming The American Century....the exact opposite of your attempt to use some small economic event as proof of anything. 

You are intelligent, the idea that you use Bear Stearns means even are reaching to try and find much in the way of examples for the horrors of the "current" ongoing "collapse"...your definition...not mine.

I'm not saying "just wait".  I am saying it's "in progress".  Picking up speed now also.
RE

Yes, you have said it is in progress. But if Bear Stearns is your starting gun, I picked a better one for the idea, and here we are....119 years later after my better example. Apparently even larger bad economic events don't cause collapse and you want to pretend a little local one will? Or worse yet....IS? Come on.

[K-Dog]

NEWSER.COM • 2026-01-18

Army Battalions Ordered to Prepare for Minneapolis

Soldiers are on standby after Trump's threat to invoke Insurrection Act.

[K-Dog]

TORONTOSUN.COM • 2026-01-18

CBS airs '60 Minutes' episode on Trump deportations it pulled last month

CBS News aired an episode of 60 Minutes on Sunday night about the Trump administration's deportation of Venezuelan migrants to a notorious El Salvador prison that it had pulled abruptly last month.

<-- Our Copy

[K-Dog]

and an article

ANDRAWATKINS.SUBSTACK.COM • 2026-01-13

The Only Way to Stop the Regime Is to Stop It

Everyone who's saying people only care because he murdered a white woman or everyone started talking about kidnapping and disappearing people when it came for the whites are right. The engine of the United States runs on racism, hated of women, and fraud. It has never been Land of the Free for millions of human beings.

If the average American had two brain cells to rub together, and came together.  The economic boycott described in the second part could work.

[K-Dog]

NYTIMES.COM • 2026-01-18

In Minneapolis, a Pattern of Misconduct Toward Protesters

A protester detained, her bra removed, her wedding ring cut off.  And some of her clothes never returned.

NEWSNATIONNOW.COM • 2026-01-18

Minneapolis area hotels shut down, citing 'safety and well-being'

Hotels are closing in the Minneapolis-St. Paul region because of safety concerns as tensions escalate between federal immigration authorities and anti-ICE protesters.

[RE]

But if Bear Stearns is your starting gun, I picked a better one for the idea, and here we are....119 years later after my better example. Apparently even larger bad economic events don't cause collapse and you want to pretend a little local one will? Or worse yet....IS? Come on.

I don't peg BS as the starting point for collapse, merely as the starting point for when I began to pay attention to it and chronicle the progress.

Yes, you have said it is in progress. But if Bear Stearns is your starting gun, I picked a better one for the idea, and here we are....119 years later after my better example. Apparently even larger bad economic events don't cause collapse and you want to pretend a little local one will? Or worse yet....IS? Come on.

You are confusing cause and effect.  Bear Stearn isn't causing the collapse of industrial civilization, it's one of the effects.  A fairly small one in the grand scheme of things, but significant enough to get me curious enough to start paying attention to what was ongoing.

RE

[TDoS]

I don't peg BS as the starting point for collapse, merely as the starting point for when I began to pay attention to it and chronicle the progress.

Okay, fair enough. So, how long HAS your definition of collape, that according to you is well along even if opaque to...everyone else....been chugging along?

Yes, you have said it is in progress. But if Bear Stearns is your starting gun, I picked a better one for the idea, and here we are....119 years later after my better example. Apparently even larger bad economic events don't cause collapse and you want to pretend a little local one will? Or worse yet....IS? Come on.

You are confusing cause and effect. 

Not really. You can't even THINK about what I do without having that one locked down.

Bear Stearn isn't causing the collapse of industrial civilization, it's one of the effects. 
A fairly small one in the grand scheme of things, but significant enough to get me curious enough to start paying attention to what was ongoing.
RE

Fair enough to catch someone's attention. But you aren't stupid...what is wrong the Panic of 1907, which was far worse than BS. How about the the 13 economic recessions since WWII? The Great Recession (2008) and the The Greatest Recessions Since The Great Depression (Covid)?

It isn't as though you can be characterized as someone who wouldn't do the most basic look-see and realize BS was....nothing in the overall economic picture. Just another gambler in mortgage finance getting their comeuppance for being stupid.

[RE]

It's hardly opaque to "everyone else", given the vast amount of material that has been written about it from Tainter to Diamond to Heinberg to Carson...among many others.  Hell you even have to include some of our favorite bloggers like Kunstler, Orlov and Mr. Wizard, JMG. lol.

As to when it actually began, that's not a bad question but difficult to put a single date on because there are so many different components.  Also it has to wait until someone notices it, which comes after it's actually underway.  Looking at  environmental collapse for instance, Rachel Carson noticed it underway in the 60's, but it certainly began before that.  It only really becomes visible in retrospect, and there has to be some time interval to see develop.

Since oil is such a big part of the energy aspect, you could peg the beginning to when the 2nd derivative of new discoveries turned negative.  That would put it in the mid 1960s.



Another way to look at it would be the 2nd derivative of global population.  That peaked in 1962.



Just like a car that breaks down doesn't immediately stop or roll backwards, it begins to slow down first (in most situations), same is true for civilization collapse.  Picking out the moment it began slowing can be tough as it's almost imperceptible.  As it progresses it becomes more obvious.  Now with industrial civilization it has become quite apparent, and has been so since the early 2000s for any who is not so blind they will not see.

RE