[RE]

DW.COM • 2026-04-02

Iran war: How long can Tehran's asymmetric strategy hold?

US President Donald Trump has signaled he wants a quick end to the war in Iran, even as US military assets amass around the Persian Gulf, where Tehran is still choking off a substantial chunk of the world's energy supply by blocking the Strait of Hormuz.  In an address on Wednesday evening, Trump said "regime change has occurred" in Iran, and that the US is "on track to fulfill all its objectives very soon."  "Never in the history of warfare has an enemy suffered such clear and devastating large-scale losses in a matter of weeks," Trump said.

How long?  That's EZ.  Indefinitely.

Hegseth just fired the top General, undoubtedly because he informed him of this fairly obvious statate of affairs.

While the Iranian regime can survive even while their infrastructure gets bombed back to the stone age and anyone who has a problem with that there will be given a first class ticket to join his ancestors, Trumpolini and the rest of the industrialized nations can only last until the Bond Vigilantes reprice USTs to the value of the toilet paper they're printed on.  At a certain point in this mess, our friends at the PBoC will exercise the Nuclear Option, and I'm not talking about the kind loaded onto ICBMs.  The FSoA has $30T in debt that has to be rolled over, and they're not gonna find a whole lotta buyers while the oil is penned up in the Gulf of Oman.  Considering relations with the Eurotrash, Da Fed isn't gonna be able to use the Belgians to buy their own debt either, and mortgages and corporate paper interest rates spike as a result.  PK & M E-E know this, but they would spook the market if they said it.  I am under no such constraint. 😀

"Whether Trump walks away or escalates by putting US troops on the ground, there is no clear path towards to removing Tehran's ability to exert leverage over supplies.  A quick victorious war and a quick regime change in Tehran do not look plausible.

"If the bar for the Iranian regime is sustaining some low-level threat to the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, it can likely do this for the foreseeable future," said Campbell."

Indeed.  What does look plausible is a credit lockup that makes 2008 look like the days of wine & roses.

RE