Global Birthrate Decline

[RE]

A relatively ridiculous projection obviously using the current birth, death and immigration rates as remaining constant for the rest of the century, which almost certainly is not the case.  At some point in that timeline there will be a global food shortage, and the poorest countries which are food importers will take the biggest hit.  So don't bet on Pakistan and Nigeria continuing a steady population increase.

The FSoA also depends on immigration to keep the population increasing.  However, the places the people immigrate from won't produce so many useless eaters, and immigration restrictions will likely continue to tighten.

At best, I'd say this chart can give you an estimate of global population for the next 10-20 years.  After that it's worthlesss.



https://www.visualcapitalist.com/peak-population-for-the-largest-countries-in-the-world/

RE                                                   

[monsta666]

The decline of the Chinese population is quite striking with the projection showing a 800-900m drop between its 2021 1.4b peak and the 2100 population. Just makes you wonder what the population drop will look like if you add the doom factor to this. Many advanced economies have a growing elderly population many of which are dependent on modern medicine to keep alive. You would think, if things go south they would die in mass. Many countries are already struggling to keep their medical services afloat today just think what the situation would be like in a poorer energy constrained world 50 years from now.

The thing I do wonder about is that many places obesity is the most common form of malnutrition. A reduction in food supply, even a fairly large one may not lead to a significant number of deaths through starvation in a lot of places. The obvious exceptions would be the countries that are already experiencing food insecurity so vulnerable areas such as the Indian sub-continent, the middle east and sub Sahara Africa will suffer a lack of affordable food to feeds its populace. Ironically most of those regions are marked in this graph as having the largest population increases. 

Other things to consider is how the birth rates will change in the future. There has been a strong correlation between women's education levels and the number of babies she has. As people become less educated it stands to reason women could have more babies. This would be further exacerbated if infant mortality increases and modern contraception becomes less prevalent. Also with the way the right are pushing for more traditional family structures women maybe reduced to following their historic roles i.e. becoming housewives and bearing children.

I think what is also something worth considering is which demographic, young or old, rich or poor, men or women will gain the most once the dust of doom settles. The closest comparison I can think of is the Black Death and in that scenario the normal peasant benefited with increased living standards as the elites had less labour they could exploit. Now I am not sure how women's rights will feature in all this but my feeling is there will be a regression to the historic norm. As for the oldies, there will simply be less of them in the new world so there will be a shift in power were the younger (relatively speaking) will be the ones taking on the roles of powers. My guess is heads of states will be people (men) around their 40s.

Granted everything in the last paragraph is highly speculative and I openly admit I could be dead wrong. But sometimes it is fun to stick the neck out in front of the guillotine. Worst that could happen is you are wrong and look like a plonker.

[jupiviv]

Dunno if anyone remembers me, posted for a while last year. Wanted to comment on this:

At some point in that timeline there will be a global food shortage, and the poorest countries which are food importers will take the biggest hit.

Those poorest countries are poor because they are exploited by the rich countries. That's kinda why the latter are rich in the first place. They can't feed themselves because they aren't allowed to. Tropical lands are inherently more productive than temperate (where the rich countries are) because they can produce all year instead of only in summer/autumn. They can also produce a lot of things we can not. We do produce more grain per hectare, but only because we subsidize our extremely inefficient agriculture at their expense. And that includes vastly higher fossil fuel inputs produced by - or domestic production thereof indirectly enabled by other things produced by - guess hoo.

It's not just food of course. Minerals, hydrocarbons, finished goods and the forcibly expropriated surplus labor needed to produce all of the above. Like, I know there's this notion that the third world people will "sadly" die off and "we" will wall ourselves off in our impenetrable climate fortress but uhhh nope. This is a global system undergoing a global crisis leading up to a global collapse. Doesn't mean everything will collapse simultaneously. Still... we shouldn't expect ourselves to be in a position where we watch and talk about those poor browns dying "over there" and then move on with our mostly intact lives. More likely is... by that stage there will be no "we" as pertains to the current geopolitical order and whatever "we" actually exists shall be powerless to use and abuse and fiddle with the lives of those folks over there as we do now. If they decide to come here and "we" want to stop them, good luck.


https://arxiujosepserradell.cat/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/A-Theory-of-Imperialism-Utsa-Patnaik-Prabhat-Patnaik-z-lib.org_.pdf

[K-Dog]

I know there's this notion that the third world people will "sadly" die off and "we" will wall ourselves off in our impenetrable climate fortress but uhhh nope.

Yes, privilege has spawned many an ugly delusion.  And thank you for the link.

[Goldernen Oxernen]

Dunno if anyone remembers me, posted for a while last year. Wanted to comment on this:

At some point in that timeline there will be a global food shortage, and the poorest countries which are food importers will take the biggest hit.

Those poorest countries are poor because they are exploited by the rich countries. That's kinda why the latter are rich in the first place. They can't feed themselves because they aren't allowed to. Tropical lands are inherently more productive than temperate (where the rich countries are) because they can produce all year instead of only in summer/autumn. They can also produce a lot of things we can not. We do produce more grain per hectare, but only because we subsidize our extremely inefficient agriculture at their expense. And that includes vastly higher fossil fuel inputs produced by - or domestic production thereof indirectly enabled by other things produced by - guess hoo.

It's not just food of course. Minerals, hydrocarbons, finished goods and the forcibly expropriated surplus labor needed to produce all of the above. Like, I know there's this notion that the third world people will "sadly" die off and "we" will wall ourselves off in our impenetrable climate fortress but uhhh nope. This is a global system undergoing a global crisis leading up to a global collapse. Doesn't mean everything will collapse simultaneously. Still... we shouldn't expect ourselves to be in a position where we watch and talk about those poor browns dying "over there" and then move on with our mostly intact lives. More likely is... by that stage there will be no "we" as pertains to the current geopolitical order and whatever "we" actually exists shall be powerless to use and abuse and fiddle with the lives of those folks over there as we do now. If they decide to come here and "we" want to stop them, good luck.


https://arxiujosepserradell.cat/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/A-Theory-of-Imperialism-Utsa-Patnaik-Prabhat-Patnaik-z-lib.org_.pdf

I have no faith in anything as % of GDP. Any time a politician wants to double or triple spending, they express it as % of gdp and it sounds palatable.

Best analogy here would be weaponry and production of munitions. We were told in 2022 that Russia has a piddling GDP compared to the EU, so stood no chance in Ukraine. Yesterday I had an emergency. I went to the city and with mild indigestion, found the toilet at the gas station in the middle of getting painted. Filipino painter was going to allow me but I declined, not wanting to stink it out for him. The tax deductible budget hotel and workers hostel I used to stay at was around the corner and I know the carpark pass code to get in.

I saw 2 big coach busses parked outside and the dining room was full of skinny young Europeans speaking a foreign language.  They obviously replaced the pacific islanders that normally take all the shared room accommodation as absolute minimum wage farm labour. Thats how faith in GDP as a reliable prediction works in my opinion.

[K-Dog]

G.D.P rises and the declining rate of profit impovrishes at a proportional rate.  Those who benifit from current arrangements must stick it to the working class to maintain lifestyle.  At last profit begins to fall like middleclass wages have while profit rose.  People attatching identity to lifestyle is the root of much misery.  The leisure class will kill to maintain privlege, and their liesure begins to be threatened.

[jupiviv]

I know there's this notion that the third world people will "sadly" die off and "we" will wall ourselves off in our impenetrable climate fortress but uhhh nope.

Yes, privilege has spawned many an ugly delusion.  And thank you for the link.

No problem. Those stats are from 2011 though so it'd be interesting to calculate imports/production for recent years. FAO data is public so all ya need is free time and a few brain cells.

[jupiviv]

For those interested I put in the relevant query for the US at faostat. It was actually very easy. The internet's not all bad! These are just the raw data for production and imports in successive rows. I would guess it elides stuff like re-exports but I think it drives the point home - maybe we should be thinking about who actually feeds us before waxing poetic about how we shall feed Africa/India/China. That's even more ridiculous if northern europeans say it considering they don't have a subtropical landmass.

FOASTAT

[RE]

You have to also consider the cause of the famine.  A corn or soy bean blight would hit the FSoA harder, than a rice blight China and India.

RE