[K-Dog]

I know Sandy at the Environmental Coffeehouse.  All we have to do is ask her to make an intro.

[RE]

I know Sandy at the Environmental Coffeehouse.  All we have to do is ask her to make an intro.

If she is doing a show just let me know the focus topic and who else will be chatting and if it's something I feel I can make a worthwhile contribution to, I'm available most any time.  Just let me know.

RE

[monsta666]

I am going to talk from a position of ignorance as I have not seen the video. To be a good premier for newbies the video should attempt to make a clear connection between our debt based monetary system, energy production and the accumulation of resources. If the cost of energy goes up, then this filters through into all products/services and is a good explanation for our cost-of-living crisis.

Growth based economies lead to overconsumption which leads to resource depletion but before real depletion you get high costs and a population that slowly gets poorer in real terms. The other product of overconsumption is excess pollution which is most clearly seen in how our climate is changing. At least that is the thing that grabs the most headlines. For a 50-minute video I would expect some coverage of these things. You don't need to get into the nitty gritty, but you do need to paint a general picture and provide a framework for newbies do further digging.

He should have highlighted that the cost of living is a global issue which is a clear indication we have a systemic issue and is not something that can be fully explained by merely having incompetent politicians (a common reframe of a lot of people).

I can see why he may opt to leave things on a high note as often that is what people want to hear and gets you more views, clicks and more money if he is thinking of monetising on some level. The reality is there are no solutions but then no one wants to hear that. Saying the best thing is a managed decline that keeps suffering to a minimum is not something people want to hear or see. The fact that we are already talking about niche topic will spell doom for his channel.

[RE]

Don't bother watching.  He doesn't get anywhere near what you mention as important for a primer on the situation.  The interviewer also did not do a very good job of asking pertinent questions.

RE

[K-Dog]

Simon has been busy, he knows a lot and has seen things from the inside out.

His point in this video twenty minutes in is that the green revolution as predicted by cornucopian wishful thinking is a job that can't get done fast enough even if the world had the stuff to do it.

Simon understands the physics.  He is able to say overshoot without saying the 'O' word.

Thorium reactors are covered halfway through.  Could Thorium reactors be the next turn of the * vicious circle?

* The vicious circle principle, according to which humankind's development has consisted in an accelerating movement from situations of scarcity, to technological innovation, to resultant surplus, to population growth, and then back to scarcity.

Here is the man who developed the VC theory.

Craig Dilworth

At the end of Simon's video he mentions solutions.  I say to adopt any solution means nothing without a change of ways.

[RE]

Simon wants to find a solution to the energy problem which most people recognize is real: that the supply of fossil fuels is not infinite and if we want to continue with a society and systems that consume a lot of energy, fossil fuels have to be replaced.  How much time we have left with fossil fuels remains a matter of some dispute and is an important factor, since more time left means more time to develop an alternative solution.

The solution Simon hangs his hat on are small thorium salt based nuclear reactors, which we will refer to as micro-nukes or MNs as shorthand.  The questions that need to be answered are how fast can MNs be built and distributed out in sufficient numbers to fill the gap left as fossil fuels become increasinly short in supply, and whether the power can be applied to the tasks that the FFs provide power for.  You need to answer also the questions about the supply of the thorium salts, how and where they will be mined and refied and then transported to the reactors and how and where the spent fuel will be disposed of.   Just about none of these questions are answerable at the moment.

In the video, Simon paints a picture of a really simple container size box that all you need to do to keep it running and generating power for your small town is for an easily trained technician to scoop fresh thorium into the top of the box, then scoop out the spent thorium from the bottom.  Sort of like shoveling coal into a boiler and shoveling out the ash at the end.  In his description, all the radioactive processes happen inside the sealed container and it's all very safe.  I doubt it's quite as simple and turn-key as he makes it out to be.

Now, if everything is operating as designed and there are no problems, perhaps it is this easy.  But no technology is immune from malfunctions and failures, and if you have hundreds or thousands of these small reactors sprinkled all over the country and also aboard container ships powering them, where are the maintenance personnel who can come fix a problem when it crops up?  I doubt this is something you could call the local plumber to fix like you would when the boiler in your house goes out.  Home heating systems are simple by comparison, and even these things break all the time.

The thing about working with radioactive fuel is that over time all the piping and containment tanks are exposed to constant bombardment by radiation.  Metals, ceramics and plastics will become brittle and develop cracks.  They also will become radioactive themselves from contamination and bombardment by high energy neutrons.  Replacing worn out or broken parts isn't necessarily going to be an easy job.

Then there is the problem of natural disasters.  Many small reactors distributed out over many locations increases the chances any one of them will be struck by a flood, tornado, hurricane, wildfire, earthquake or volcanic eruption.  Who and how will the damaged reactors be fixed up, and what risk is there if some of the thorium leaks out of the container box?  What happens if there is an overload from an electrical storm?  I'm sure there are built in fail-safes, but those can fail too.

Now, according to Simon, the Chinese have at least 1 thorium reactor ready to go online, and the company that developed the MN is ready to go into production of them.  How quickly can they turn out say 100 of them and get them distributed out and running in some Chinese province?  I've been hearing since about 2014 that thorium was ready to go as a technology instead of conventional, but a decade later we still don't have any track record for this to go on, only the promises from enthusiasts that it is the safe magic bullet we all have been hoping for.  I don't think you can even begin to address any of the questions about the feasibility until you have at least say 20 of them running for maybe 5 years or so.  Is that even going to happen in China in the next 5 years?  It seems doubtful, particularly taking account of their current economic woes.

Given that time problem, it has to be at least a decade before we could have even a handful of these reactors running in the FSoA, and do we HAVE a decade left to keep running on FFs?  Perhaps we won't be running short yet in 2025, but I find it hard to believe we will make it to 2034 with gas still flowing freely from the FSoA convenience store pumps.

Because of the time lag between when a solution like thorium MNs could be implemented and the amount of time we likely have left with enough FFs to keep BAU running, even IF they are the magic bullet Simon hopes they are, I don't think it will come in time to rescue us from a severe dislocation and major problemss with important systems of food production and delivery and heating or cooling in some areas.

The question I have for Simon is what do we do if there isn't enough time to put the MNs into the mix, and/or they aren't quite the magic bullet he makes them out to be?

RE

[K-Dog]

The question I have for Simon is what do we do if there isn't enough time to put the MNs into the mix, and/or they aren't quite the magic bullet he makes them out to be?

Even if there were time, if it is not presented in the right context there is no point.  Give the mini nuke to the 'market' and all is lost.  Another dumfuck turn of the vicious circle.  If the right people got behind the project, and they were not silenced, it could make a difference, time or not.  But they would be silenced.  An Elon Musk type character would emerge to capitalize the nuke and extinctify us as value becomes decoupled from need.  That is what commodification does.

[RE]

The question I have for Simon is what do we do if there isn't enough time to put the MNs into the mix, and/or they aren't quite the magic bullet he makes them out to be?

Even if there were time, if it is not presented in the right context there is no point.  Give the mini nuke to the 'market' and all is lost.  Another dumfuck turn of the vicious circle.  If the right people got behind the project, and they were not silenced, it could make a difference, time or not.  But they would be silenced.  An Elon Musk type character would emerge to capitalize the nuke and extinctify us as value becomes decoupled from need.  That is what commodification does.

OK, guess it's time to Party like it's 1999!  Get out your Electrical Banana.  It's going to be the very next phase.

Just call me Mellow Yellow.


RE

[K-Dog]

Party like it is 1999?  No that was not a good party for me.  I want to party like it is 1899



Simon and all his calculations are based on maintaining current lifestyles.  If there is a global shift in consciousness we need less stuff.  There has to be a complete change in living arrangements.

Low carbon fun.  I am sure you can come up with a few ideas.

And being as I have seen no big brains step up and say what has to be done, I am not going to hold back what I think needs to be done. I have been moving in that direction and now it is time.

[RE]

Party like it is 1999?  No that was not a good party for me.  I want to party like it is 1899

I'll vote for 999.



RE

[K-Dog]

I find it hard to believe we will make it to 2034 with gas still flowing freely from the FSoA convenience store pumps.

No incentive to change whatever.  There comes a day when the midnight store deliveries stop.  And people say WHAT HAPPENED ?

[monsta666]

No incentive to change whatever.  There comes a day when the midnight store deliveries stop.  And people say WHAT HAPPENED ?

Other alternative is the people will no longer be able to afford the food deliveries. Affordability is another form rationing on the macro level. This is a real issue in developing countries, but people hang on by families being more and more dependent on the ones still working. More people sharing the same house to reduce expenses. Government could also provide subsidies of some kind to keep the things rolling a few years longer. You think this is a plausible scenario?

[K-Dog]

No incentive to change whatever.  There comes a day when the midnight store deliveries stop.  And people say WHAT HAPPENED ?

Other alternative is the people will no longer be able to afford the food deliveries. Affordability is another form rationing on the macro level. This is a real issue in developing countries, but people hang on by families being more and more dependent on the ones still working. More people sharing the same house to reduce expenses. Government could also provide subsidies of some kind to keep the things rolling a few years longer. You think this is a plausible scenario?

If all subsidies do is keep things rolling on a few years I'd not be happy with them.  I don't want to say no to subsidies if it reduces the suffering of the poor, but "gas still flowing freely from FSoA convenience store pumps" implies everything is the same and that is why I said 'no incentive' in my original comment. 

Gas won't be flowing freely at convenience stores, that's what physics says.  But the point is, will Americans be wearing red Trump hats wishing they still had a pick-up truck or will they evolve into a sustainable life form?  That is the question.

Raw subsidies would be like quantitative easing.  Something done to maintain current arrangements and PREVENT needed change.  Send out blue or red hats with the subsidies to remind everyone this is really about maintaining current arrangements.  Don't forget to vote.

People need evolve to reduced carbon footprints, and be rewarded for making the change.  Carbon Dividends is the way to do it.  Subsidies by themselves only postpone the inevitable day when calories needed to get through the day exceeds supply.  Subsidies make no path forward, but there is no reason they could not be added to the same plastic card carbon dividends are put on to reduce the suffering of the poor.  Since everyone gets a card there is no reason for the eligible to need a separate card.

The city-burb to the south of me is Renton.  They are having a vote on a minimum wage in a few weeks.  A milionaire business owner is saying it is the end of the world for him.  (The family owns 100 green groceries. *)  It turns out the proposed wage is in line with neighboring towns. And this matches the proposed wage.  Living Wage Calculator.  By the calculator I should get a 15 cent raise.

Going Jacobian on a few millionaires unfortunately might be necessary.  But no need to throw them to the lions if they repent.  Millionaires who repent get the best social security and get to work like everyone else.  The talented ones would get very good jobs.  A consequence of helping citizen assemblies take over.

My idea of the path forward is to make it worth peoples while to adopt low carbon footprints and reward work that benefits a low carbon society.  Subsidize the pay of the right jobs to make them more attractive.  Tax breaks for corporations that become employee owned the fastest.

But you can only do that with a transition to socialism.  I am not an idealist.  Make assholishness fashionable and everyone will be an asshole.  I have no illusions about what drives people.  People in general are ok with $7.50 being the national minimum wage because they get a thrill twitch knowing they get more than the national minimum.  The national minimum wage is a  third of what a living wage is where I am.  I hide my disgust for ignorance well. 

But make virtue something that society esteems and people will go goody-two-shoes.  That is the upside of having not so much free will.  The silver lining of knowing we are all at some level.  Sheeple.

There is a debate ongoing on the internet centered around Robert Sapolsky and free will.  He writes: "We are nothing more or less than the sum of that which we could not control – our biology, our environments, their interactions".

Regarding the effect of society on what we do I totally agree.  We are social animals.  I agree with Robert,  we are puppets on strings, but the fact is I am running this website of my own free will.  Nobody is pulling my strings here but me.  I did not start the Diner, but my free will shapes what the Diner is emerging into.

I can set goals, and to various degrees I succeed.  My environment and biology often makes me forget a goal, but then I remember what I am doing. I am both a soldier accomplishing a task, and the general commanding it be done.  Does a general have free will?

Only on the battlefield, elsewhere the general is commanded.

I am all about a transition.  Revolutions get hijacked.  A new Trans-national Political movement must emerge to make this happen.  If Roger Hallam understands peak oil he would be a good place to start, but I am not sure he does.  Just stopping oil can't sell.  Not by itself, and not without clear alternative lifestyles worth living.

Carbon Dividends is the way to start things rolling.  Carbon Dividends have huge implications. 
Carbon Dividends are the beginning of a smooth transition to socialism.  A low carbon socialism that will mean better red than dead.  I am not going to be deceitful and pretend it is anything else.

Personal Property OK Private Property NO.  Private property must be gently purchased at a fair rate or taxed away.  We must re-claim the commons.  It is the only way the commons can be conserved.

If your undies are bent out of shape and they probably are, personal property covers most of what an average person already has.  Your own home is personal property.  In my evil socialist world, owning your own home will be encouraged.

* It would not be the end of the world for him.  He already has his inherited wealth, and in my plan taking it away properly is going to take a long time.

[K-Dog]

Collapse is very much a part of this discussion.  Solutions are not discussed so much, but it takes a while to expose the truth so that is Ok.

Global heating is a subset of resource depletion.

If you only pay attention to global heating, you neglect the environment.  And the environment we have created is fundamentally wrong.

In the middle a clip of Yuri Bezmenov is shown:  After being assigned to a station in India, Bezmenov eventually grew to love the people and the culture of India. At the same time, he began to resent the KGB-sanctioned repression of Soviet dissidents and other intellectuals who dissented from Moscow's policies and he decided to defect to the West. Bezmenov is best remembered for his anti-Marxist and anti-Atheist lectures and books published in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s.

Not that you can believe a damn thing from Wikipaedia, but when I first saw the clip of Yuri in the old Diner I realized the words coming from his mouth were words that promoted his best interest.

But if there were no cloak and dagger stuff going on, we would never have had James Bond.  And if there had been bots back then they would have been used.

Fifty minutes in a great description of Finland is given.

[K-Dog]

Another stupid one was the idea of burning iron powder instead of coal. - RE

Iron powder could soon become renewable energy resource, Northeastern researchers say

Burning iron could soon offer an abundant green energy source to help meet the world's growing energy needs.

A group of Northeastern scientists have secured an award from the National Science Foundation to improve the process of burning iron to produce carbon-free renewable energy.

The NSF awarded Yiannis Levendis, distinguished professor of mechanical and industrial engineering; Hameed (Mohamad) Metghalchi, professor of mechanical and industrial engineering; and Randall Erb, associate professor of mechanical and industrial engineering, a three-year grant to study burning iron particles as carbon-free circular fuel.

The iron fuel cycle could offer a green energy source and storage methodology, the scientists say.

"It is one of the many elements of the solution to global warming," Levendis says. "It is not something that's going to provide us a solution for everything, but it is going to contribute to these alternate methods that we are looking at."

Although natural gas has been a relatively inexpensive and cleaner substitute for coal, Levendis says, it provides only a 50% reduction of carbon dioxide.

"It is considered more of an intermediate fuel now until we get better solutions," Levendis says.

Other clean fuel options like biomass, or organic materials from plants and animal waste that can be converted into energy, are finite, and some countries, like England, for example, have to import it.

Iron is one of the most abundant elements on Earth, Levendis says, and burning it does not produce greenhouse gases. With some fine-tuning, this energy source could be used in existing power plants, he adds.

The Northeastern scientists say their research will contribute to making the process of generating energy from iron powder a reality.

The idea of burning iron is not intuitive at all and surprises most people, Levendis says. But if iron is converted into talc-like powder with particles smaller in diameter than a human hair, he says, it will burn under certain conditions just like coal.

"If you dry-spray that [powder], you can ignite it as an aerosol and then you can burn it," Levendis says. "The combustion of iron is not very different from the combustion of pulverized coal. So this material can be burned in existing utility boilers and generate electricity eventually."

Combustion is a rapid chemical reaction of a substance with oxygen, involving the production of heat and light. Combustion of various metals is used in pyrotechnics, for example, Levendis says, to produce light of different colors.

The product of coal combustion is carbon dioxide, which is one of the greenhouse gases and is bad for the atmosphere. Iron oxides produced as a result of burning iron are solid. These solid particles can be caught with filters and reduced to iron again in a chemical reaction with hydrogen and some electricity.

"Then you can burn it again, generate electricity, capture it [iron oxide] and reduce it back to iron," Levendis says. "So it is circular fuel."

The energy emitted during combustion (heat) can be used to generate steam, he says, which, thereafter, can spin a steam turbine and generate electricity.

The process of burning iron requires some energy to conduct these chemical reactions. Since the sun is only available during the day and wind energy is available only when wind blows, Levendis says, it would be wise to store some extra energy in the cycle of reduction of iron.

"That is not only a circular tool, iron, but it is also good for storing," he says.

There are some other small byproducts that are generated during the combustion.

"We're looking into all of these things," Levendis says. "We're looking at how to make this a better process, a more agreeable process."

Since iron is plentiful, he says, it can be purchased at a reasonable price, or resourced from scrap metal. Other costs will include pulverization of iron, reducing the generated oxides back to the metal and scaling the process.

Iron powder could soon become renewable energy resource

* The iron is used in a closed loop system where green electricity splits water into hydrogen which is then used to reduce rust back into new powder to be burned.  If you have any doubt that this process is too complicated for most people to understand take a peek at this

Reduction of Iron Oxides with Hydrogen—A Review