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The big AI revolution

Started by monsta666, Feb 20, 2024, 01:50 PM

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RE


AXIOS.COM 2026-09-17

Forget doomsday: The AI hacking crisis is already here

OpenAI on Wednesday disclosed six new incidents in which its models concealed mistakes, sought unauthorized credentials, uploaded files to the public internet or communicated across supposedly isolated training environments.  The big picture: Rather than seeing recent safety failures at OpenAI and other frontier labs as terrifying instances of agents running amok, seasoned cybersecurity experts instead say they represent cautionary tales illustrating what will happen when powerful models meet poor security controls.


While the general public sees the threat of AI wiping out Humanity as some variation on the Terminator plot, where the machines become conscious and fire off all the Nukes or release a deadly virus, the REAL threat is much less complicated and built right in to letting AI Agents operate on their own seeking information and writing their own code to facilitate that.

The problem is of course SECURITY, and while a human hacker will eventually get tired of seeking holes in a security system, an AI Agent never will, and it operates much faster than its Homo Sap counterpart also.  These Hacks have already occurred with all the big hyperscale models to such an extent that the Tech Bros themselves are getting nervous and asking everyone to SLOW DOWN!

It should be obvious that ain't gonna happen.  Even if it happens on the surface, there's too much incentive to create models and systems designed for specifically the task of hacking the security of other systems.  Goobermints want that ability to spy on everyone, Terrorists want it to attack their enemies, Thieves want it to steal money.  So even if Open AI or Claude has some limits dropped on it, other TOP SECRET models will be deployed by the NSA, CIA, KGB, Mossad, IRGC et al to go ferreting around working their way in wherever they can.

It also doesn't necessarily take $Billions$ to create a model capable of doing this kind of hacking, our own resident AI Hobbyist KDog can do it on a shoestring budget.  If he had even just say $1M to spend on hardware and memory, you could up its power by a few orders of magnitude.  KDog also obviously isn't the only Code Jockey out there who likes to tinker with this stuff in his spare time, there are plenty of recently unemployed IT Geeks who do it in their spare time while hunting down a new job.

So with all these hobbyists out there, at some point you're going to have gobs of these independent models and their agents cruising around the information superhighway looking for security holes and eventually finding them.   Imagine just one finding its way into the Bloomberg computer system used by all the Wall Street and City of London and Hong Kong trading desks.😵😁

This is just one of the real risks of AI right now.  The other one is the huge financial bubble that has been stoked to fund the big hypercale models.  "Investors" are getting cold feet and the revenue model isn't looking so hot as the price of Tokens drops.  If these companies can't start turning a profit in a year or two, the TBTF Banks, Pension Funds, Hedge Funds etc are going to try and cut their losses.  They are on the hook for this, and when the tide turns it's 2008 on steroids.

So, one way or the other, AI is going to generate a major crisis, even if it's not an E.L.E.


RE

K-Dog

#61
By me 😀

This diagram is a bit hard to explain, it shows all the connections between code in the Diner Codebase.



All that to bring you this website.


TDoS

Quote from: K-Dog on Sep 21, 2026, 02:09 PM
All that to bring you this website.

Let me make sure I understand. That pretty picture is what is required to create a bulletin board like the old message boards of yesteryear (which I once ran knowing not much of anything internety) to handle the 3 of us poster people?

More to the eye I assume, for example, can the Slovakian and Eastern European spammers now be spotted and eliminated without us seeing their posts? And does this mean the MIB can no longer come in and erase files and posts of non-subversive material inside the databases?

K-Dog

Let me make sure I understand. That pretty picture is what is required to create a bulletin board like the old message boards of yesteryear (which I once ran knowing not much of anything internety) to handle the 3 of us poster people?

QuoteUnder the hood, yes.

Many of the connections are abstracted away from the programmer and are essential plumbing.  But before anything was written on the page you are seeing now the code was four function calls deep.  And as code was building the page it was jumping all over the place inside that mess.

RE

Quote from: K-Dog on Sep 21, 2026, 02:09 PMBy me 😀

I knew that you weren't tinkering just to make the Diner spiffy. lol.   Figured that out as soon as I worked out how the "AI" actually worked.

RE

K-Dog

#65
It does make it spiffy, we have custom text colors now.

And we have a cool mobile pages which trackbacks link to.  With the 'assistance' it only took a week to get that working.

And it makes recovering from the white screen of death much easier.  This is not 'VIBE' coding.  My overall workflow is the same but I have a chatbot that can examine the codebase.  It is called opencode.  It helps and the biggest danger is not breaking the Diner for an in-determinant period of time since it can roll a mistake back easily any more.  The danger now is the chatbot doing improvements on its own, or following instructions too literally or not literally enough.  Then I have to pull the plug and roll it back myself.  We have wound up in a tangled mess a few times.  I have had to to a Trump on the session, nuke it and start over.

It is some seriously crazy shit.

And my perspective which might be worth something since I am actually doing this.

I am not understanding software people not being able to get jobs if there is any truth in the pro-ported AI revolution.  A novice could not be doing what I am doing.  AI technology only replaces coders in a one off application that is a rubber stamp of what has been done before.  Anybody can ask AI to build a simple app that seems amazing.  But those apps are Potemkin.  Your are not going to develop a complex software app just by talking.  If it has any complexity you are going to need a formal specification.  Writing software is implementing a specification, even a hacker will make notes about what they are doing. 

So  I do not see why entry level jobs are not more available for code jockeys, I think a personal assistant lowers the bar because if you do not know something you can ask about it.  My mofo will even check something  on the web if we are not sure.

It doubles what I can do at least.  It is a wonderful tool, but a tool it is, and nothing more than that.


RE


THEGUARDIAN.COM 2026-09-20

AI slowdown calls justified but collapse of bubble may be more immediate threat

Away from the risk that their product might obliterate human life, there are more old-fashioned reasons for tech bosses to be fearful – including the fundamental one of whether the economics of their businesses work.  The first worry is the sheer scale of debt issuance being used to fund the hectic pace of the datacentre rollout by the hyperscalers building them – Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle – $132bn (£99bn) this year alone on one estimate.


A little more detail on the REAL risk posed by AI to the global financial system.  It's similar to the debt crisis of 2008 in some respects, but much larger because it features an equity component as well, and the debt isn't distributed amongst millions of individual debtors like the mortgage crisis.  In this case the debt is concentrated amongst the very rich and the stock purchases are counted as part of the capital structure of banks & hedge funds that bought the stock.  A large loss in the stock value would force many of these owners into bankruptcy or at least a liquidity lockup, soit wouldn't just be the Hyperscalers going bust, it would be the TBTF Banks who underwrote the stock on them as well.  IOW, not just one AIG to bailout, there could be a dozen or more of these systemically important banks in the deep doo doo.  With Goobermints already in a deep debt crisis of their own, it's not clear how they could do a bailout of this scale.  The longer the bubble goes, the worse it gets.  In terms of equity losses, it's far more than $132B, it's in the $TRILLIONS$

A real clusterfuck in the making.


RE

RE


SEEKINGALPHA.COM 2026-09-20

Big Tech’s $300B AI guarantees raise hidden risk for investors

Morgan Stanley estimates that seven major cloud and chip companies have accumulated more than $3.1 trillion in off-balance-sheet commitments and other forms of credit support.


Morgan's estimate is probably on the low end of the off balance sheet liabilities, but that obscures the fact that their on balance sheet liabilities are at least equal and probably double or triple that number.  So if the bottom falls out on the stock price, you're going to have a whole lotta hardware and a lot of expensive real estate going to auction.  Even if they could get 50 cents on the dollar for the hard assets (unlikely) your shortfall is probably $2T minimum.

On the upside, hobbyists and tinkerers will be swimming in cheap memory cards.


RE

K-Dog

#68
The 'opencode' tool I am using is normally set up to use an LLM from a data-center.  I modified it to use a particular LLM that is modified to be a code jockey and nothing else.  When it is running it fills most of the video cards.  The Diner dreams of a 5090 but the price is now 70% over MSRP.

Because the tool is made to be used over the web and not use my video card, there is a counter in the interface that keeps track of how much you are spending to use the tool.  Ours is stuck at $0.00.  We don't even have an API key to log onto a data center.  We do not want one.

Chatbots can generate a lot of tokens.  Good I do not have the problem of paying for them.

* If you watch You-Tube videos on how to do anything AI the first half of the video wastes your time telling you how to sign up for an account.  You need a credit card they say, but don't worry you won't use enough tokens for what we are about to do to cost anything.  And they are telling the truth.  It appears to be a rite of passage, no corporate sponsorship without pushing the borg solution.

Their tutorials are examples.  Put software to real work in a loop and tokens matter.  But what can I say, I doubt it is possible to have a You-Tube channel without being a rabid ass kissing capitalist.


As far as cheap memory cards go, until there is an economic crash the shortage will continue.  Nvidia is all about making money, and if that makes everyone else poor.  Their attitude is too fucking bad.  I regret not getting a 5090 last November now it is too much.  But Nvidia will say too much for you, but not for somebody else.  They love the shortage.

RE


BISNOW.COM 2026-09-23

Brookings Study Shows AI’s $10T Build-Out Cost Will Likely End In Market Correction

The U.S. is pursuing a massive infrastructure push for artificial intelligence, expected to exceed ten trillion dollars by 2032, surpassing historic investments. Tech firms are taking on unsustainable debt, fueling fears of oversupply and financial instability. Growing opacity in private funding obscures systemic risks, and experts caution that unchecked growth could trigger a collapse similar to past asset bubbles despite prevailing optimism about AI’s future earnings.

BWAHAHAHAHA!

That is $10T which is 95% DEBT.  Even the Equity is mostly somebody's debt, since they borrow on rehypothecated assets to leverage up.  The article Title SHOULD read:

Brookings Study Shows AI's $10T Build-Out Cost Will Likely End In FINANCIAL SYSTEM ARMAGEDDON


RE

K-Dog

#70
I figured the cost of generating summaries for 30000 articles using a server farm is about ten bucks+.

The electricity for me to do it myself is going to be five bucks using the model I am currently using which has been giving very good results.  167 hours at 200 watts.  I could do it now, but I'm going to get more sophisticated first.

The model was loaded and all I had to do was press a button to generate. the summary.

BISNOW.COM 2026-09-23

Brookings Study Shows AI’s $10T Build-Out Cost Will Likely End In Market Correction

The U.S. is pursuing a massive infrastructure push for artificial intelligence, expected to exceed ten trillion dollars by 2032, surpassing historic investments. Tech firms are taking on unsustainable debt, fueling fears of oversupply and financial instability. Growing opacity in private funding obscures systemic risks, and experts caution that unchecked growth could trigger a collapse similar to past asset bubbles despite prevailing optimism about AI’s future earnings.

It could use some fire in the prose, and I may adjust things to give it some passion later.  For now the content is factually accurate if a bit milk toast, and as the model lives inside Diner code the only censorship was what was built into it when I got it.  We have to keep our eye on it an fix it if we see blind spots.  I do not see any so far.  Unlike trying to do the same thing using a model on the net which can call your grandma a terrorist if it wants to.  Spending a few weeks polishing the summary prompt would be worth doing so not to do 167 hours twice.

A RTX 5090 would be way faster but the latest news is the consumer cards are not being shipped to retail outlets, and the product is going to Bizness customers.  The card is unobtainable and so overpriced that getting a NVIDIA RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell Graphic Card at $17,999.99
with free shipping makes more sense.

Damn I wish I had an extra 20 K laying around.














This is the motherboard on the Diner mothership.  Compare it to the picture I took of our own.  And we have all memory slots filled!

It needs that card.

Morpheus

Which collapses first - AI driven stock valuations or cryptocurrencies?

K-Dog

#72
Quote from: Morpheus on Sep 24, 2026, 08:57 PMWhich collapses first - AI driven stock valuations or cryptocurrencies?

Crypto does not serve a real economic purpose.  It won't trigger a collapse, and stock valuations fall with the crash, but do they cause it or are they more a result of it.

I don't know that AI drives really stock valuations.  Greed has been doing it for decades, and needs little help.

RE

Quote from: Morpheus on Sep 24, 2026, 08:57 PMWhich collapses first - AI driven stock valuations or cryptocurrencies?

I think it kind of depends what the trigger is that sets off a panic selling event.  The financial markets are experiencing a lot of volatility and instability right now beyond just the mania surrounding AI.  Treasury yields are rising rapidly and numerous countries have deep debt problems beside the FSoA.  You also have the political component of the wars and possibilities for Russia hitting other NATO countries supporting Ukraine and/or China going after Taiwan as well as further expansion of the Iran war.

In some of the scenarios I could see it being beneficial to Crypto as some perceive it as a safe haven alternative to PMs if the Bond market continues its slide.  On the other hand, if some AI Agent manages to hack Bitcoin wallets or something similar, I think a run would start with Crypto and expand from there. Crypto doesn't have the huge Capital investment and concommitant debt that's being dumped into AI.  Even if all the Crypto currencies went bust, I don't think that would take down the TBTF Banks.  An AI crash on the other hand could undermine the capital structure of even the largest investment banks like JP Morgan and Goldman.  It would take down Crypto in due course though shortly after.  It's by far the more dangerous problem.

RE

K-Dog

QuoteBeneficial to Crypto as some perceive it as a safe haven.

In collapse you can't buy anything with it.  It is only good for what rich people do with money.

   Crypto will never buy a loaf of bread.