Quote from: TDoS on Feb 07, 2024, 04:19 PM

Quote from: RE on Feb 06, 2024, 05:49 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Feb 06, 2024, 02:55 PMThank you for validating the near impregnable quality of the Groundhog day idea. I thought it would be difficult to refute as well, based on the facts of peak oil history, it seemed a good analogy.

It's an analogy, yes, but that is not what you said.  You said it was the same.  An analogy is when 2 things have similarities, but they are not the same thing.  You wanted to use the same news story over again.  Not correct. If you learn the proper use of the English language, we won't have a problem. 
RE

So you are saying that you will happily argue the semantics because you can't refute the analogy I used? Ummm...ok. You win.

There's no reason to refute the analogy, because it's irrelevant.  It's ancient history. What is important is the current situation, not the situation as it existed 20 years ago.  So far, the Global Peak Energy Consumption (including Peak Oil) figure reached in 2018 has not been exceeded.  Until and unless that figure is surpassed, that marks the date for when Peak Oil was reached.    Most of the analysis I have read since indicates it will not be surpassed, so Peak Oil is history now, not a projected future date.

We can return to arguing about Peak Oil if/when this figure is surpassed.  As of data available today, we have the date for Peak Oil established already. 2018.



RE

Quote from: RE on Feb 07, 2024, 06:06 PMThere's no reason to refute the analogy, because it's irrelevant.  It's ancient history. What is important is the current situation, not the situation as it existed 20 years ago.

I see. Well, while I am unaware of the number of times the Groundhog Day effect can continue, I am forced to admit that even in the movie of the same name, it did in fact one day stop being the Groundhog day.

Quote from: REMost of the analysis I have read since indicates it will not be surpassed, so Peak Oil is history now, not a projected future date.

Could be. Although it seems to me there was far more robust analysis written on the first 4 occurred or claimed peak oils this century. #5 and even moreso unpredicted #6 seemed to sneak in the door unnoticed, unpredicted and both quite unremarkable. 

Quote from: REWe can return to arguing about Peak Oil if/when this figure is surpassed.

Of course. Just as I said, the Groundhog Day and Peak Oil, hand in hand, marching through time, discrediting legions of gurus all along the way. The King is Dead! Long Live the King! 

The good news for now is that we can bask safe in the knowledge that 6 years after it occurred, gasoline is running perhaps $2.40/gal in my neighborhood, and is available by the tanker truck load...should someone want to buy that amount.

Quote from: REAs of data available today, we have the date for Peak Oil established already. 2018.

Absolutely. <yawn>

Quote from: TDoS on Feb 09, 2024, 03:32 PMAbsolutely.

Your capitulation has been duly noted and filed. 

RE

Quote from: RE on Feb 09, 2024, 05:29 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Feb 09, 2024, 03:32 PMAbsolutely.

Your capitulation has been duly noted and filed. 
RE

Good. Also note my capitulation on ALL peak oils this century. Hence the need to number my capitulations same as the peaks themselves.

Such is the connection between peak oil and the Groundhog Day.

Now that we've etablished the validity of the Groundhog Day effect within the many peak oils, do you have any estimate on the question asked previously? When do you think the Groundhog Day effect will finally end? Yes yes..I know.... 6 Groundhog Days might be the answwer....but then again.....that's what was said all the other times as well.

Groundhog day ends when there are no people to experience days or we finally learn from our mistakes.  Groundhog day is every day, just like in the movie.  No two days were ever the same in the movie, each day Bill Murray changed something and learned from it, until by the end he finally learned enough so Andie McDowell would fall in love with him, and that broke the calendar date loop.  I have no idea how many iterations it will take for Homo Sap to learn or if we will ever learn.  Just have to see how it plays out.

RE

Quote from: RE on Feb 10, 2024, 03:38 PMGroundhog day ends when there are no people to experience days or we finally learn from our mistakes.  Groundhog day is every day, just like in the movie.  No two days were ever the same in the movie, each day Bill Murray changed something and learned from it, until by the end he finally learned enough so Andie McDowell would fall in love with him, and that broke the calendar date loop.  I have no idea how many iterations it will take for Homo Sap to learn or if we will ever learn.  Just have to see how it plays out.

RE

We only ever had funding for one season of the show.  Our days have run out.  We're getting cancelled.

We're #1!  We're #1  We're #1!



Smashing new records every month!  Amerika, the Land of Good & Plenty!


What a country!



https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/25/usa-oil-gas-production-world-record-level-energy-security/

The triumphant USA is now producing more oil and gas than any nation ever has

Quote from: RE on Mar 27, 2024, 07:49 PMWe're #1!  We're #1  We're #1!
Smashing new records every month!  Amerika, the Land of Good & Plenty!

PLEASE!! AND IMPOSSIBLE!!

As we all know, Hubbert was right, an unmatched geologic genius, and posters on this site have vouched this to be good and true. We have been informed by those with knowledge on this topic that the EIA are a bunch of oil industry cast offs and sympathizers, probably cooking the books while looking for additional funding to continue their errant propaganda.

Nothing to see here, no need to hype the propaganda of the optimists flooding the world, you are encouraging them! I say we just move along, resist the urge to trumpet their ignorance from the rooftops (or in small web forums of 3 or 4 people who know these truths!), refuse to let the simple addition of data and resulting sum get in the way of warning the world about peak oil and the cataclysms to follow!  And if they dare to mention that global peak happened 6 years ago, we dispute that to the end, using Hubbert's outstanding analysis showing it happened in the mid-90's!

Since this sad attempt at sarcasm was fully expected and predictable, I'll permit it as your response to the OP in the interest of  fairness and allowing you to continue turning yourself into a silly caricature of an internet troll.  Further expansion on the theme will not be necessary, your opinion has been duly noted and filed.



RE

M King Hubbert was spot on and oil depleted exactly as he predicted.

It is a troll move to compare CONVENTIONAL Hubbert OIL that came out of the ground if you stuck a drinking straw in the right place to HARD ROCK OIL which is an entirely different resource.

Conventional oil depleted in the 70's exactly as Hubbert predicted.

The new fossil fuel resource currently funding the FSOA will follow the same pattern.  The math is no different.  And sooner, rather than later.  Considering the dunce caps in charge of foreign policy.

Quote from: K-Dog on Mar 28, 2024, 01:15 PMM King Hubbert was spot on and oil depleted exactly as he predicted.

Copy that. In the spirit of BlackWhite, problem solved for the US oil production problem! Feel free to refer anyone to it in its proper form.

Quote from: K-DogIt is a troll move to compare CONVENTIONAL Hubbert OIL that came out of the ground if you stuck a drinking straw in the right place to HARD ROCK OIL which is an entirely different resource. Conventional oil depleted in the 70's exactly as Hubbert predicted.

DAMN straight. Fig 21 in Hubbert's seminal work appropriated notated....unfortunately Hubbert never says conventional in the entire paper, so a slight add in seemed best to not make stuff up he didn't say directly. If a troll can't figure out how to put the correct words in a genius geologist's mouth, we can certainly do it for them on the charts that matter!


Need guidance from the Blackwhite committee though....how do we solve the "spot on" problem with his world estimate in Figure 2? We're short about 50 mmbbl/d in 2024....what do you think about a slight mod like this to hand out, should anyone find the original and not understand that the scale was just off by a little?

Has all of the endless argument over Hubbert just been about 25 years on a projected curve of oil discoveries?  Given Industrial Civilization is about 275 years in the making, we're talking <10% off on the timeline, which while it's very significant if you only have maybe 20 years left in your personal timeline for staying above ground, it's pretty insignificant as far as other people who have a life expectancy with 50+ years still left on it.

Besides that, the precise timeline of how much oil is left to be discovered and possibly extracted, refined and burned is only one factor among many that impinge on the timeline of civilization collapse.  Population size and growth, age demographics, migration patterns, water resource availability, infrastructure breakdown, economics and debt, wealth distribution, geopolitical balance of power and climate change each provide their own individual problems and timelines, and then on top of that you have interactions between factors that further complicate the situation.

For that reason, the Doomstead Diner has never been a referendum on predictions made by M. King Hubbert or Peak Oil.  When a oil story relevant pops up in the newz, I'll post it, but this was just one story among many on other topics like the Moscow bombing, Ukraine, Trumpovetsky, EVs, Cuban Food rationing and my personal favorite in the area of Social Collapse, idiots who think you can be whatever you want to be, so if you were born with a penis but want to hang out with girls, all you need to do is check the box labeled Female on your application for a job as security guard at the Lolita Memorial Reform School for Wayward Sluts and POOF, you qualify!  Compared to this insanity, the dispute over 25 years and what constitutes as conventional oil is missing the forest because you keep staring at the same tree for the last 20 years or so that Peak oil started regularly popping up on Google searches. There are many more interesting trees growing out in the Collapse Forest which are much more interesting to discuss than an old fire that has long since burned out, except in the mind of obsessed one trick ponies who just can't let go of a dead horse they have been beating for so long the bloody pulp is like a toddler's favorite bwanky he  doesn't want to give up, because despite the fact its tattered and torn and stinks of sour milk, puke, piss and shit, it's a warm cuddly old friend he just can't let go of.

Find a new blanket and buy a new horse.  Grow a little.  There's more to Collapse than just Hubbert and Peak Oil.



RE

It is a troll move to compare CONVENTIONAL Hubbert OIL that came out of the ground if you stuck a drinking straw in the right place to HARD ROCK OIL which is an entirely different resource.

And I too will no more beat this dead horse.

Well, maybe we can finally be finished with Peak Oil prediction arguments since the Big Kahuna organization of the IEA has dropped on their prediction that demand will peak before 2030. 

"Many large organisations think Peak Oil Demand will happen this decade or the 2030s. This includes the International Energy Agency (IEA), which has predicted demand for oil will peak before 2030."

It will be a relief to finally finish the 15 year beating of that dead horse. 

Peak Oil Production on the other hand appears to have passed its all-time global peak back in Nov of 2018.

Obviously your production can exceed demand, in which case the excess could be put into storage, but demand can't exceed production by very much or for very long, because you'll run out of the oil in storage.  Any demand greater than what you can produce has to be DESTROYED.

So, what the IEA is telling us with their prediction is that inside the next 6 years there will be enough Demand Destruction for Oil that further increases in production will be unnecessary.  Thus by this logic New Zealand should not waste taxpayer money to incentivize further oil production.

The question is of course, how do you continue to have economic GROWTH if the demand for oil is being destroyed?  The article answers this question by telling us that renewables and electrification will be replacing the oil as the demand destruction moves forward.

The government's decisions go against projections by many sources, including the International Energy Agency, that demand for oil will decline soon as we electrify the global transport fleet. Consequently, investment in oil exploration is projected to decline too.

Are we really electrifying the transportation fleet fast enough that it will destroy enough demand so that the wheels can keep rolling as the oil stops pumping?  While also producing enough electricity to supply all those AI powered Data Centers the Billionaires want to build?  By 2030?

Since this seems unlikely, how else can we destroy the demand for oil before 2030 as the EIA predicts?  Answer, we stop driving and turn off enough lights so the demand goes away!  IOW, what the EIA is predicting is a global recession before 2030.  Because that's really the only way the oil demand will disappear that fast.

So who and where gets to stop driving and dim the bulbs to achieve this is the problem, and if Kiwis don't want to be one of the lucky countries that sees gas shortages and blackouts because they can't import enough FFs they would be well advised to try and keep pumping their own supply locally.  Unfortunately they have the same problem we have here with Cook Inlet NG, the wells aren't producing enough anymore.  Like us also though, it will take a while to get new wells producing even if they start looking now.

Any countries which are not Net Exporters of FFs are going to be the lucky ones who lead the 600 of the Light Brigade into lights off in the Valley of Death, because the importers are all going to be competing for the diminishing supply first.  This is going to make situations in many 3rd world countries go from already really bad to much, much worse.  That means more refugees and more conflicts.  The long awaited consequences of Peak Oil.

https://theconversation.com/global-demand-for-oil-could-peak-soon-nzs-plan-to-revive-offshore-exploration-doesnt-add-up-232154

Global demand for oil could peak soon – NZ's plan to revive offshore exploration doesn't add up

RE

Quote from: RE on Jun 13, 2024, 06:15 AMWell, maybe we can finally be finished with Peak Oil prediction arguments since the Big Kahuna organization of the IEA has dropped on their prediction that demand will peak before 2030. 
RE

I find the IEA and their oil prognostications fascinating. In 2010 they predicted global peak oil 4 years earlier in 2006. Did it after the fact just to be sure. Now it is peak demand, which means supply can outrun demand by 2030? And until then both will continue to grow, even past Peak Oil #6 this century in 2018? Okay I guess. I imagine Fatih Birol is still in charge, and is responsible for both claims. How...flexible....economists can be.