Quote from: RE on Dec 12, 2024, 09:40 AMOf course, you observe I know how smart I am and I observe you get huffy about it. 

I have no objection to your intelligience.Stupid people are far more likely to be uncertain in their thoughts and actions, and therefore more random in their responses to stimuli. Less predictable.  I revel in your certainty because of your intelligience. I've been working with people at least as smart as you since I graduated college and ran into my first Harvard grad oil company owner. And his CalTech cousin. And his Harvard law roommate. And the BCG folks who came up with the money to buy bankrupt oil companies which were then handed off to me to manage. 

Quote from: RE... I'm not sure how Sun Tzu's strategy is particularly helpful here.
RE

Indeed. Which is the entire point. 

Quote from: TDoS on Dec 12, 2024, 03:24 PMIndeed. Which is the entire point. 

No, the entire point is that we are being fed a bunch of bullshit in the dissemination of this Reuters poll.  Your predictable response to that is to distract from the point by making this about your strategic application of ancient Chinese war strategy to a personal war where I represent the enemy.

The distraction doesn't illuminate the topic, so there's no reason to further pursue the discussion.  However, you did manage to make it through this one without violating any rules seriously enough to warrant cooler time, which is some progress.  You may eventually make some kind of worthwhile contribution to a discussion.  Keep up the good work!   

RE

Quote from: RE on Dec 12, 2024, 07:25 PMNo, the entire point is that we are being fed a bunch of bullshit in the dissemination of this Reuters poll.
RE

Please provide your proof for that statement.

Other than you believe it to be true of course.

Oh good grief.  It's $15 more than your own analysis, the analysis from BoA and the analysis from the EIA of a glut in supply that will extend for a decade.  Then there is the current dogshit state of the Chinese economy and the economic basket cases of France and Germany.
                                                                                                                                                                   
That's enough evidence to convince me it's crap.

RE

Some folks from the old days are still around.  Gail Tverberg is still producing her actuarial charts and basically repeating old newz here, that we're on the per capita energy downslope and 2025 will see recession and an oil glut.

Her last chart seems to predict Nuke energy will take over and produce everything necessary when the FFs run out.  This does not seem likely.



RE

QuoteThere is no question that, in stark contrast to the climate-focused Biden administration, the people Trump is surrounding himself with will carry out the fossil fuel industry's wish list to juice oil production and demand for its products. They are poised to roll back regulations that favor electric vehicles and fuel-efficient hybrids and approve Gulf Coast projects to liquefy and ship natural gas abroad.

The 43 million is inaccurate but that is Ok.  I am not going to take the time and modify the card.  I am only expressing my feelings.  As I wonder about how the cosmos will deal with those who kill our future and ensure our demise.

Quote from: RE on Jan 06, 2025, 11:10 PMHer last chart seems to predict Nuke energy will take over and produce everything necessary when the FFs run out.  This does not seem likely.

RE

That isn't Gail's chart. It is Hubbert's chart. Are us old farts so challenged nowadays that we forget the work of great scientists and assign it to retired actuaries who predicted global peak oil in 2008 and were so embarassed by their oily ignorance they had to create another website to hide from the laughter that ensued as to the exact level of "oil knowledge" that actuaries have?

Come on folks! We might be geriatric but we aren't REQUIRED to let our brains atrophy as well!

Gail didn't create oilprice.com, she's not even on staff there.  They just pick up her articles occassionally.  She still runs her blog Our Finite World.

RE

Not gonna be fracking much oil @ $57/bbl.

Oil prices falling into zone that discourages production growth

https://www.axios.com/2025/04/08/oil-prices-production-growth

RE

Quote from: RE on Apr 08, 2025, 07:12 PMNot gonna be fracking much oil @ $57/bbl.

Oil prices falling into zone that discourages production xpensive stuf

https://www.axios.com/2025/04/08/oil-prices-production-growth

RE

Growth was easing up anyway, even at $70. Some signs of decreasing productivity at the geological level are showing up already, anyone with data and looking at it has known it for almost a year now. All good things must come to an end, cycles of development run their course until the next technology/geology/economic combination shows up to go after the more expensive stuff. Even that stuff was edging into the limelight when oil was in the $100+ range pre-2015....but then the resulting price drop from the US developing more normal oil...again...happened. So we'll have to wait for the price to go back up to let the shales run their course, and THEN all the other more expensive oils might get a chance.

This growing disconnect is fueling serious concerns that widespread oil futures complacency could be risking global supply chains and credit markets and potentially setting up the next major supply shock.  Goldman Sachs recently warned of a disconnect in the oil markets, offering potential scenarios of what the rest of 2026 could look like, not just for the crude market, but refined products, such as jet fuel and petrochemicals. The potential paths the rest of 2026 might take range from a mere economic hiccup to catastrophe.

So which is it gonna be, sportsfans?  HICCUP or CATASTROPHY?

In my grand tradition as a confirmed Doomer, I'm betting on Catastrophe. 😬

Sooner or later the  physical shortages are gonna catch up to the rosy picture painted by Trumpolini.  Meanwhile, his buddies will continue to rake in the moolah in market manipulation of the NACHO trade.

Meanwhile, futures markets rise and fall based on a different host of speculative factors, including President Trump's often contradictory late-night posts on Truth Social, which seem purely for market manipulation, rather than anything approaching an accurate assessment of the situation.

Trumpworld insiders are making hundreds of millions on every announcement, with a $1.7 billion short on oil placed one hour before Wednesday's bombshell report in Axios, after which crude plunged 7%.

RE

You will note at the end of this article from the Smartest Guys in the Room at the IEA that they STILL assume a deal to end the war will be reached and the Black Gold will once again flow freely into the tanks of Happy Motorists around the world.  EXCEPT EVERYBODY KNOWS already that even IF some kind of deal is reached to end the war that the flow will never go back to the pre-War levels due to insurance issues at the very least.  No sign whatsoever that the war will be over anytime soon, so WTF base your assumptions on this fantasy?

By the Nov elections the true state of the oil market will be patently obvious.  Trumpsky will be lucky if he only gets Impeached.

RE

Oil and shipping markets remain on edge as Hormuz disruptions increasingly look structural rather than temporary, with insurers, shipowners, and traders losing confidence in U.S. security guarantees. The world is entering a fragmented new trade order where maritime access and energy flows are becoming tied to geopolitical alignment instead of open global markets.

It's about time someone in the MSM said out loud what EVERYBODY KNOWS, which is that oil shipping is NEVER going back to the status quo antebellum.  Hormuz is just the tip of the iceberg, there are numerous places on shipping routes where  tankers can be threatened with Piracy or interdiction.  China certainly will not accept the FSoA blockading Iranian Oil from heading to Chinese ports over the long term.  On the other side, as long as Iran can sell its Oil to China, Trumpolini's blockade doesn't fulfill the intended purpose of starving Iran of funds.  Who gets the oil produced anywhere but inside their own borders is now subject to the political vicissitudes of who is aligned with who.  The possibility of wars escalating past the Proxy War level has increased by orders of magnitude.  Xi made that clear in his statement about the Taiwan situation.

It's hard to figure how the new reality will be priced in to the cost of shipping insurance and then further to the price of oil.  A single market price for delivery is no longer possible, since each route has a different level of risk associated, and each transaction depends on who the buyer & seller are & where the vessel is flagged.  Needless to say, that makes for a very confusing market situation, and even without overt hostilities in play energy movement  around the globe will be seriously impacted.

It's a whole different world now, and there is no going back.

RE

Silence is the best plan.

The end is nigh. All China and Iran have to do  is wait while America's fuel cost induces total collapse.  Trump does not care, and it does not matter anyway because he is well into a second childhood.  Trump is an ineffective dead wait.  He started this shit and his incompetence will now cause America to collapse from his own blowback.

QuoteWe are screwed through the rest of the year.

In the Irish potato famine ships loaded with grain sailed from Irish ports.  Now history will repeat as oil exports will be more profitable than keeping what Joe Six Pack pays at the pump under six bucks.  People who own are going to make out big.  And AI means you will no longer have a personal computer soon.  It will all be subscription to data-centers behind your keyboard and screen.  And it is happening because people are too stupid to give a shit.  The AI bubble is the total failure of NI Natural Intelligence.  The Rentier economy is the end game.  Rent-seeking and exploitation by companies is Joe's future.  If Joe does not plug into the system he/she will have no life.







And you don't have to travel to a Greek cave and sniff fumes to see this future.

Quote from: K-Dog on May 17, 2026, 07:01 PMAnd AI means you will no longer have a personal computer soon.  It will all be subscription to data-centers behind your keyboard and screen.

The only thing most people use a computer for nowadays is as a glorified TV and Phone anyhow.  That's why all they have is a Smart Phone and tablet and don't bother with a laptop.  Laptops are only used by people with White Collar jobs and students who are training for those jobs.  As long as they can view & send video, take & share pictures, chat & send emoticons and use it as a calculator to do basic math to total their spending while shopping, that is all they need.

Thing is of course, what good is having a laptop today in Cuba or Iran or Ukraine or most of Africa?  How often is the power on to charge it up and use it?  How many years away are we from most of Eastern Europe, SE Asia and S & C America being in the same condition?  Of course it's still pretty far away in the Belly of the Beast here in the FSoA, W. Europe, China and Russia, but the conflicts and collapse of trade will get to these places in due time also.  The sand is running down in the hourglass as we speak.

I also wonder how long they'll manage to keep the high tech war going?  Hell, a few weeks of just bombing parts of Iran and they were running short of Ammo.  How long would the munitions factories keep running in a war with China, even without Nukes?  How long would the Aircraft Carrier Groups stay floating?  How long would the electrical grid stay intact?  Where will the AI data centers get their juice from?

Personally, I have an Air Gapped Win 10 computer I keep around for when the net goes down and I just need a machine to write on and stay entertained doing 3D design or playing old games on CD-ROM.  However, I only am likely to live for another decade or so, and  the electricity up here hopefully will last that long.

RE