QuoteIt definitely would inspire the Chinese to take over Taiwan and the South China Sea if we had the military bogged down Vz

For sure that, the whole world would smell America's overextended weakness and take advantage of it.  But as far as thinking that far ahead goes, the people who are actually doing the deciding can't look that far ahead.  That would involve neural circuits they never use.  They only look at what is good for themselves.

Would it distract from the Epstein files?  No, but somebody might think so.

* At this point I'm even wondering if I am in the Epstein files, and I have never even been to the Virgin Islands or on a private plane.

Quote from: K-Dog on Dec 13, 2025, 08:08 PM

QuoteHey! I've said that same thing more than once, but about peak oilers.

Nuance is important yes.  Classical peak oilers, unlike myself, consider all oil to be the same.

Well, good to hear that peak oilers going back to JP Lesley in 1886 had it wrong for a specific reason that only us "in the know" are familiar with.

Quote from: K-DogVenezuela's  extra-heavy Orinoco Belt crude oil is difficult, costly, and energy-intensive to extract and refine into American gas station go juice.  If American oil companies get control of it the would be the only ones who could refine it.  Perhaps you could inform the Diner about this.

Do you think only you and I know this because we read the wiki on it, and all those classical peakers couldn't be bothered to read this secret knowledge?

You've just described Canadian tar sands as well (except their development is more difficult) and yet they produce millions of barrels a day of the stuff. I guess all these challenges really don't matter much to the right people/company. Hence my inclusion of XOM in the mix. If Canucks can do it with more difficult old, XOM can do it piece of cake in Venezuela.

Quote from: K-DogTrump is a bit trapped animal right now.  That throws some chance into what would certainly be a sure thing, American greed being what it is. 

Well, out of curiousity, if we assume you and I and RE aren't naturally greedy, and many other Americans, where do you think "America" in the collective gets it from? Just the political system, or the actors within the political system?

Quote from: RE on Dec 14, 2025, 12:16 AMControlling Venezuela would be a bit more problematic than simply dropping down a few Special Ops teams to guard the Oil extraction and transport systems.

QuoteOh, I was being a bit facetious on the effort involved in holding the land, focusing instead of keeping the military penned up where they usually are while denigrating their overall capabilities.

The mountainous areas are generally in the North, the Orinoco Basin is more savanas and grasslands, with occasional flooding and marshes thrown in.

Quote from: K-REGiven the terrain and vegetation, you're looking at a guerrilla style war similar to Vietnam.

With the inclusion of one item you didn't mention.....a people willing to go all the way to the mat with the US and basically wear them down not militarily, but psychologically. What might the political will of the Veneuelan people be like? One thing we know for sure....they voted for someone else.....that someone else won....AND THE CITIZENS DIDN'T HAVE THE CAJONES TO KICK HIS ASS OUT THEMSELVES. That gives at least some hint as to their political will, let alone betting their lives against American military hardware protecting XOM in this scenario.

Quote from: REGetting public support for putting minimum say 10K boots on the ground to hold the Oil facilities and safely produce and ship it out would be very expensive in dollars and lives.  The oil is expensive to extract even without that.

Expensive compared to the Lucas discovery well of Spindletop Field, sure. But the Orinoco is SHALLOW, and unlike other oils of its gravity, it has a lower than expected viscosity. In other words, for a heavy/extra heavy crude, it flows easier than others. Combine that with shallow and this isn't much different than straight up Canadian SAGD processes. Kids stuff. Costs more, yes. Canadian makes it work to the tune of millions of barrels a day, so technical challenge isn't much of a consideration at all.

Finding dilutants might be an issue because of lack of local availability, but XOM can solve that as well...plenty of it available in the US's surplus of light sweet to change one fluid to something that matches a required assay for a refinery.

Quote from: REI also suspect thee Chinese and/or Ruskies would supply the guerillas from Colombia, Peru or Chile.  It definitely would inspire the Chinese to take over Taiwan and the South China Sea if we had the military bogged down Vz.

That would be an interesting scenario after XOM goes to town. Let them have the South China Sea, the amount of oil resources controlled by the US and Canada would dwarf the rest of the world combined. OPEC+ would have the easy oil....but not near as much.

Quote from: REGotta think a few steps ahead here.
RE

Indeed. I wonder what the Orange One can engineer to justify a 500 mile deep incursion into Canada, like 101st Airborne capture of Fort McMurray, and some tank divisions striking straight north out of Montana.

Canada would be way easier than VZ from a military POV, much harder from a political POV.  It's a member of the Brit Commonwealth along with Oz, which wouldn't sit well with them, plus it's full of WHITE people.  Harder to sell that they  are dangerous criminal gangsters threatening Amerika. lol.

I don't really see the point of either of these adventures, at least right now.  I mean, FUCK!  Oil is selling down at $57/bbl today!  Just about everybody who is fracking or pumping deep water oil is doing it at a loss at those prices.  You wanna bring MOAR supply online?  WTF? 

RE

Quote from: RE on Dec 14, 2025, 01:55 PMI don't really see the point of either of these adventures, at least right now.  I mean, FUCK!  Oil is selling down at $57/bbl today!  Just about everybody who is fracking or pumping deep water oil is doing it at a loss at those prices.  You wanna bring MOAR supply online?  WTF? 
RE

Global peak oil happened in 2018. The time to get ready is NOW, even if the consequences of this event haven't played out as the hobbyists have hoped! Even the US might have peaked earlier this year! I mean...when will the consequences begin?

Market prices are just a head fake....the market trying to hide the TRUE state of oil production and reserves and resources. Us peakers know....like a shark just under the water....soon....it will reveal itself and eat the Orca along with Roy Schneider, Richard Dreyfussa and Robert Shaw.

I don't think there is quite that much of a rush.  As I recall, the IEA predicted a glut of oil for the next decade.  There's also the problem of what people can afford to pay.  As we have seen before, when Oil gets up over ~$80/bbl, the economy breaks.  So it's constrained within a very tight range.  Given the high debt load curently carried by all sectors of the economy (gov, corp & consumer), it's hard to see where the money would come from to support higher prices.  IMHO,  until the economic probleems are resolved, there's little chance of having supply side issues, unless of course we have a global escalation of warfare.  In that case, the Oil production facilities would be prime targets, making the oil even more expensive to extract and ship.  It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to drill new wells if they're likely to be targets for sabotage.

Then again, nothing abut the industry makes a whole lotta sense.

RE

Quote from: RE on Dec 14, 2025, 11:54 PMI don't think there is quite that much of a rush.  As I recall, the IEA predicted a glut of oil for the next decade.

And global peak oil in 2006. Sorry, but Fatih has never had anyone's confidence in knowing dick about O&G anything, plus he's an economist to begin with. "If you build it they will come!" is common among that gang. When I bump into demand side arguments I label it "The Field Of Dreams" economic theory.

Quote from: REThen again, nothing abut the industry makes a whole lotta sense.
RE

The industry makes perfect sense on the upstream side at the very least and can be described from top to bottom. The instant the social science of herd-think gets involved within the supply/demand/price envelope ....that's when it all goes sideways.

Quote from: TDoS on Dec 15, 2025, 01:28 PMThe industry makes perfect sense on the upstream side at the very least and can be described from top to bottom. The instant the social science of herd-think gets involved within the supply/demand/price envelope ....that's when it all goes sideways.

Maybe,  but I still don't think using the military in either Vz or the GWN at this point to acquire oil is a very good idea.  Overall too destabilizing and a lousy risk/reward ratio.

RE