Fossil fuels are entering a geological and financial "Red Queen" race.  More capital to extract less net energy from ever lower quality rock.  A crash is inevitable.

I'll throw some chum in the water.

What about Mother Russia?  How come the FSoA and China get to divide up the world without the Ruskies getting a piece?  Doesn't Vlad deserve a little respect here?  Is he the Rodney Dangerfield of the New World Order?


RE

Quote from: K-Dog on Today at 01:57 AM

AGEOFTRANSFORMATION.ORG • 2026-02-20

When the boom hits the wall: A commercial reality check on fossil expansion

Gemini said  The 2025 UN Production Gap Report highlights a sharp disconnect between industry optimism and physical reality. While official projections suggest growth through 2050, actual data points to a looming structural decline.

Fossil fuels are entering a geological and financial "Red Queen" race.  More capital to extract less net energy from ever lower quality rock.  A crash is inevitable.

Do you think the UN knows they are recycling a claim from a discredited peak oil website of yore?

Quote from: K-Dog on Today at 01:00 PMI'll throw some chum in the water.

Indeed. World renowned energy expert. One of his incredibly long lasting quotes was claiming there wasn't much oil in US shales in 2011. In front of the Forrestal building...where the EIA is housed. In retaliation, Adam Siemenski (EIA Administrator) announced a few months later that US oil production growth had just recorded the highest level of growth in the countries history.

World renowned expert indeed.

I googled up his business address once, Labyrinth geosciences or some such. It was a house, I assume his, and Google labeled it a Mary Kay Cosmetics business. It struck me as a perfectly fitting sign of the importance of his consulting company compared to what was probably the wife's business.

Paying attention to where a consultant lived in 2011 is an interesting pastime, but it doesn't change the 2026 balance sheet. The UN report isn't 'recycling' an old Oil Drum blog post.  The report is looking at current EROEI (Energy Return on Investment) and the massive capital required just to maintain flat production in aging basins.





You can mock the messenger, but can you address the 'Red Queen' math? If we are spending more to get less, how does that support growth, and dreams of happy bunnies hopping in green meadows on a sunny day.