The thing is, even if Trumpolini declared "Victory" and sent home the grunts, the Straight won't be any safer.  The only way to  do that would be to put 100K boots on the ground and hold all the land along the coast.  It's almost certain as soon as ships start moving through, at least 1 will get hit.  If it's an LNG tanker, the explosion will be Hollywood spectacular.

With the Kuwaitis and Omanis now starting to shut in wells, the supply interuption will at least be months long.  So much for Trumps quicky done.  In 3 months, you'll have RREAL shortages in fertilizer right in time for growing season.

Leave it to Trump to speed up collapse by orders of magnitude.

RE

Quote from: RE on Mar 10, 2026, 09:30 AMLeave it to Trump to speed up collapse by orders of magnitude.
RE

Unless of course the usual happens. Many collapses are called...still waiting around for one to be chosen. <yawn>

Quote from: REDOOMSDAY 4 OIL!😁😁😁

RE

I remember the early 80's, and the bumper stickers on Texan's trucks, "Drive Faster, Freeze A Yankee".

"Doomsday For Oil Consumers" might be better...some drilling folks and oil and gas companies will be quite profitable I imagine. Things will get more expensive regardless of oil prices, as things are wont to do.

Remember the last time it was the Doomsday for oil? 1979is still my favorite. The modern peak oilers didn't have nuttin compared to that global peak oil.

Quote"I don't think they have any realistic endgame in their mind," he added. "I think they are aimless."

People thinking they are fulfilling a biblical prophesy are not big on endgames.  They don't need no stinkin endgame.

Hell would have frozen over before I could have ever voted for this racist moron who can't read.  I wish more of you could say the same.  Now if you ever helped him your inattention to detail will mean millions will die.  And that's on you.  Did you think that we live in Disneyland so the limits of the universe do not apply in your magic kingdom of America.  I think you do. 

The tragic thing is I know you will do it again.  You will vote for the same kind of fool.

And all the things that the big black book says are going to happen are not going to happen.  Not a single one of them.  Fairy tails written for other purposes thousands of years ago do not define reality.  That black book is no reason to let madmen rhyme, but sadly 30% think poetry translated through multiple languages be magically real.  Like it was the word of god or something.  And for that people must die.

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 10, 2026, 04:04 PMRemember the last time it was the Doomsday for oil? 1979is still my favorite. The modern peak oilers didn't have nuttin compared to that global peak oil.

It's the same collapse.  It just has ebbs and flows.  '79 was an earlier stage with half the world current population and a lot more cheap oil still remaining.  This round is likely to be a bit tougher.  We'll know in a few months I think.

RE

Quote from: RE on Mar 10, 2026, 05:54 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 10, 2026, 04:04 PMRemember the last time it was the Doomsday for oil? 1979is still my favorite. The modern peak oilers didn't have nuttin compared to that global peak oil.

It's the same collapse.  It just has ebbs and flows.

I am just going by the definition you provided earlier is all. These collapses are tricky things, especially with your good definition.

Quote from: RE'79 was an earlier stage with half the world current population and a lot more cheap oil still remaining.  This round is likely to be a bit tougher.  We'll know in a few months I think.

RE

By 1979 the President had gone on TV and announced that the world would run out of oil by the end of the 80's. The concept hadn't been discredited yet by the internet and hangers on without two neurons to rub together but an urge to collect clicks and likes and whatnot.

In hindsight it certainly seems like a silly collapse meme back then, but it was as real in the moment as the peakers who began playing eeny meeny miney mo with 1990 global peak.

I'm willing to give it a few months before your definition of collapse shows up. Eat, drink and be merry because in a few months....want to make a bet on it happening?

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 10, 2026, 06:31 PMI'm willing to give it a few months before your definition of collapse shows up. Eat, drink and be merry because in a few months....want to make a bet on it happening?

As I recall I posted an AI generated definition which seemed reasonable.  Here's another.

Societal collapse is rarely a single, sudden event; it is often described as a "death from a thousand cuts" involving the gradual erosion of a society's foundations
. Researchers in collapsology and history identify several recurring indicators that a society is losing its resilience and complexity.
1. Political and Institutional Decay
The breakdown of governance and public trust is a primary precursor to collapse:

    Elite Overproduction: A surplus of highly educated or wealthy individuals competing for a limited number of elite positions, leading to intense infighting and factionalism.
    Widespread Corruption: Institutionalized corruption and "extractive institutions" that prioritize the enrichment of a small elite over the needs of the general population.
    Loss of Institutional Faith: A significant decline in public trust in government, religious, and legal institutions.
    Increased Surveillance: Governments may respond to growing unrest by expanding police and surveillance powers to maintain control.

2. Economic Fragility
Economic indicators often signal a society's inability to maintain its own complexity:

    Hyper-Inequality: Extreme wealth gaps where the vast majority of resources are held by a tiny fraction of the population, often leading to social friction and revolution.
    Currency Devaluation and Inflation: Historical examples, such as Rome, saw governments devaluing currency to pay off unsustainable national debts, resulting in rampant inflation.
    Diminishing Returns (EROI): Joseph Tainter and other scholars highlight falling Energy Return on Investment—when the energy (or resources) required to maintain a society's complexity begins to outweigh the benefits.

3. Social and Cultural Fragmentation
The "social glue" that holds a civilization together begins to dissolve:

    Loss of Shared Values: The erosion or intense contesting of core cultural beliefs and ideologies that once provided unity.
    Extreme Polarization: A divided populace where political or social groups are no longer able to find middle ground, often characterized by "scapegoating" and internal strife.
    Decline in Innovation: A stagnation in intellectual and cultural pursuits, often accompanied by a "disinclination for abstract thinking".

4. Environmental and Demographic Stress
Physical limitations can act as "triggering mechanisms" for collapse:

    Resource Depletion: Overexploitation of vital resources (e.g., deforestation, soil exhaustion) beyond sustainable levels.
    Demographic "Busts": Sudden drops in population due to declining birth rates, disease outbreaks (pandemics), or mass migration.
    Inability to Manage Crises: A "critical slowing down" where the society recovers more and more slowly from external shocks like droughts or natural disasters.

5. Historical "Perfect Storms"
Experts like Eric Cline note that while single stressors (like a drought or an invasion) may not cause collapse, a "system collapse" often occurs when three or four such catastrophes happen in quick succession, creating a domino effect from which the society cannot recover.


If you use this definition, collapse is already here.  6 months from now it still will be, just with a range of new problems arising from this poorly thought out piece of geopolitical buffoonery.  I'm sure your ice maker will still work though.

RE

Quote from: RE on Mar 10, 2026, 11:38 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 10, 2026, 06:31 PMI'm willing to give it a few months before your definition of collapse shows up. Eat, drink and be merry because in a few months....want to make a bet on it happening?

As I recall I posted an AI generated definition which seemed reasonable.  Here's another.

Societal collapse is rarely a single, sudden event; it is often described as a "death from a thousand cuts" involving the gradual erosion of a society's foundations
. Researchers in collapsology and history identify several recurring indicators that a society is losing its resilience and complexity.
1. Political and Institutional Decay
The breakdown of governance and public trust is a primary precursor to collapse:

    Elite Overproduction: A surplus of highly educated or wealthy individuals competing for a limited number of elite positions, leading to intense infighting and factionalism.
    Widespread Corruption: Institutionalized corruption and "extractive institutions" that prioritize the enrichment of a small elite over the needs of the general population.
    Loss of Institutional Faith: A significant decline in public trust in government, religious, and legal institutions.
    Increased Surveillance: Governments may respond to growing unrest by expanding police and surveillance powers to maintain control.

2. Economic Fragility
Economic indicators often signal a society's inability to maintain its own complexity:

    Hyper-Inequality: Extreme wealth gaps where the vast majority of resources are held by a tiny fraction of the population, often leading to social friction and revolution.
    Currency Devaluation and Inflation: Historical examples, such as Rome, saw governments devaluing currency to pay off unsustainable national debts, resulting in rampant inflation.
    Diminishing Returns (EROI): Joseph Tainter and other scholars highlight falling Energy Return on Investment—when the energy (or resources) required to maintain a society's complexity begins to outweigh the benefits.

3. Social and Cultural Fragmentation
The "social glue" that holds a civilization together begins to dissolve:

    Loss of Shared Values: The erosion or intense contesting of core cultural beliefs and ideologies that once provided unity.
    Extreme Polarization: A divided populace where political or social groups are no longer able to find middle ground, often characterized by "scapegoating" and internal strife.
    Decline in Innovation: A stagnation in intellectual and cultural pursuits, often accompanied by a "disinclination for abstract thinking".

4. Environmental and Demographic Stress
Physical limitations can act as "triggering mechanisms" for collapse:

    Resource Depletion: Overexploitation of vital resources (e.g., deforestation, soil exhaustion) beyond sustainable levels.
    Demographic "Busts": Sudden drops in population due to declining birth rates, disease outbreaks (pandemics), or mass migration.
    Inability to Manage Crises: A "critical slowing down" where the society recovers more and more slowly from external shocks like droughts or natural disasters.

5. Historical "Perfect Storms"
Experts like Eric Cline note that while single stressors (like a drought or an invasion) may not cause collapse, a "system collapse" often occurs when three or four such catastrophes happen in quick succession, creating a domino effect from which the society cannot recover.


If you use this definition, collapse is already here.  6 months from now it still will be, just with a range of new problems arising from this poorly thought out piece of geopolitical buffoonery.  I'm sure your ice maker will still work though.

RE

What AI did you use? That is a great definition of what is happening...collapse. Did you coach the AI with how you phrased your question or rapport with the AI. That makes such a difference in the way it responds. If you did "coach" it, good job!!! )

Quote from: Knarf on Mar 11, 2026, 05:00 AMWhat AI did you use? That is a great definition of what is happening...collapse. Did you coach the AI with how you phrased your question or rapport with the AI. That makes such a difference in the way it responds. If you did "coach" it, good job!!! )

No coaching, I just dropped "civilization collapse definition" into Google's search box and clicked on their AI button. This is what it coughed up.

RE

Quote from: RE on Mar 11, 2026, 09:24 AM

Quote from: Knarf on Mar 11, 2026, 05:00 AMWhat AI did you use? That is a great definition of what is happening...collapse. Did you coach the AI with how you phrased your question or rapport with the AI. That makes such a difference in the way it responds. If you did "coach" it, good job!!! )

No coaching, I just dropped "civilization collapse definition" into Google's search box and clicked on their AI button. This is what it coughed up.

RE

It must have smelled Peter Turchin's crotch at some point.  Elite Overproduction is his thing.  It gave a very impressive response.  It always does on a well traveled road.

* And he is mentioned in # 2

Quote from: RE on Mar 10, 2026, 11:38 PMIf you use this definition, collapse is already here.  6 months from now it still will be, just with a range of new problems arising from this poorly thought out piece of geopolitical buffoonery.  I'm sure your ice maker will still work though.

RE

If you change the definitions of words to mean something else, of course they will fit any circumstances you like. Your first definition was better, and didn't have that "let me explain everything to you like a baby" that AI answers often have.

Too bad doomer folks of yesteryear didn't think more carefully about being less absolute in the moment, they wouldn't have left so many examples around proving that true believers really are that first.

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 11, 2026, 04:02 PMIf you change the definitions of words to mean something else, of course they will fit any circumstances you like. Your first definition was better, and didn't have that "let me explain everything to you like a baby" that AI answers often have.

I didn't change anything.  Blame the AI.

Here's the 1st one:

The collapse of civilization means a complex society rapidly loses its large-scale institutions, cultural identity, and social complexity, leading to decentralization, violence, scarcity, and a regression to simpler, smaller-scale ways of living, often due to factors like war, famine, environmental disaster, or economic failure. It's characterized by a breakdown in governance, trade, and infrastructure, potentially leaving behind remnants of the past and forcing survivors into new, simpler societal structures or absorption by stronger groups

More concise, lacks the detail of #2.  They don't conflict though.

RE

QuoteBut at the same time, I think you should go to enormous lengths to avoid going to war unless you absolutely have to. But Israel has the opposite view. It lives by the sword. And I think if you live by the sword, you turn yourself into a modern version of Sparta, the end result is not going to be happy.

🚌 🍿  And here we are watching it happen.  Riding in the back seat of the bus eating popcorn while Bibi Netanyahu drives the bus.

In my line of work I deal with lots of middle-east clients (not Iranians those are avoided like the plague). What I hear, and this is second hand information from the bankers, is that there are more rockets, drones hitting targets than the Western media would have you believe.

UAE is being hit pretty hard but the government has attempted to put a brave face and the party line is to say it is all under control. People of UAE seem to be adopting this line to avoid any trouble. Reading between the lines things aren't so rosy. In other places like Kuwait they are more openly apprehensive about the amount of damage being done.

Our hub in UAE is closed and I have heard that some staff member's home in UAE got attacked my a drone and another experienced a near miss. Doesn't sound all pleasant.

Saying that I do feel the US will likely stop given attacking given they have little appetite in driving oil prices through the roof. Once America stops I am sure they will rein Israel in. Trump has never given a clear reason for this attack so it will be easier for him to claim victory given his he never defined what his objective was.

monsta, good to see you.

The lack of news proves to anybody interested that there are more rockets and drones hitting targets than we are told.  Americans unfortunately in general are not yet interested.

Iran's strategy will to make it hard, and expensive on gulf states to maintain their alliances with America.  They will continue to hit Israel and the gulf states to make it impossible to do business.  As they should.

When Iran has engendered the regime change the world desperately needs, and people rise up against tyranny. Iran can stop with the missiles, but not before.  The reason is simple.  Israel can't be trusted and does not want peace.  America is bought and paid for by Israel, and unlike other presidents who had more brains. Trump took Bibi's bait.  As long as Trump is in power America cannot be trusted.  Not for a minute or an inch.

Iran needs to cause pain because pain is the only way to stop our tyrants.