This AI stuff is wild. I tried looking people up, like Art "There is No Significant Oil In US Shale" and it did a reasonable job of being...polite. Lacked detail though, particular when he hosed things up. So I looked up myself and that was interesting as well, it found more by just making a small change, but it reasonably quantified and described published works, area of expertise, and contributions to science and whatnot. More than I expected it to know. I've used it for some coding recently, and that was less effective, but still I learned from some of what it laid out.

Not sure I'll take its word for collapse though, considering how differently it has been characterized by the true beleivers.

It knew that David White at the USGS was predicting peak oils as far back as 1919. That isn't a well known one, but it knew. I'll have to poke around on deep research issues and see if it knows that, then ask it to explain why so many folks got it wrong spanning a century and see if it figures out the trick in the question.

It has already made a mistake on hydraulic fracturing, claiming Hubbert didn't know about it in 1956, which he certainly did. It didn't seem to know the timing of when horizontal drilling began either, assigning to a post 1970 time frame as to why Hubbert was wrong.

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 11, 2026, 07:29 PMNot sure I'll take its word for collapse though, considering how differently it has been characterized by the true beleivers.
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That's your prerogative.  The rest of us here find it reasonable though, so for the purposes of Diner discussion, that's what we'll use.  Better than ice making in any event.

RE

Quote from: RE on Mar 11, 2026, 08:14 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 11, 2026, 07:29 PMNot sure I'll take its word for collapse though, considering how differently it has been characterized by the true beleivers.
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That's your prerogative.  The rest of us here find it reasonable though, so for the purposes of Diner discussion, that's what we'll use.  Better than ice making in any event.

RE

Ice making is quite simple and requires no voluminous verbiage that is the equivalent of "all these things might happen and things could be puttering along with no real consequence".

Most doomers down through the decades always attached cool side effects, all the way back through Ehrlich at the least. Even you speculated on actual consequences beyond what AI provided more than 15 years ago on peakoil.com.

WHy? Because the atraction of doom isn't in socialital simplifcation and other bland discriptions. Without MZBs AI collapse just becomes....Jimmy Carter's malaise.

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 12, 2026, 04:36 AMIce making is quite simple and requires no voluminous verbiage that is the equivalent of "all these things might happen and things could be puttering along with no real consequence".

I'd hardly call mass deportations and ICE Gestapo murdering citizens no real consequences.  Bombing Tehran back to the Stone Age is definitely consequential to the Iranians.  Oil tankers bottled up in the Persian Gulf has serious consequences for Chinese factories producing Iphones.

Far as outcomes go, it depends where you live how far along things are.  They are definitely further along in Havana and Caracas than NYC and LA of course.  Be a little patient.  It'll get here in due time.

RE

Quote from: RE on Mar 12, 2026, 09:54 AMI'd hardly call mass deportations and ICE Gestapo murdering citizens no real consequences.

I didn't say ridiculous politic theater isn't a real consequence. I would say it isn't collapse. How many students died at Kent State? Because of idiot law enforcement activities doesn't a collapse make.

Quote from: REBombing Tehran back to the Stone Age is definitely consequential to the Iranians.  Oil tankers bottled up in the Persian Gulf has serious consequences for Chinese factories producing Iphones.

I agree it is consequential. Like idiot mortgage lenders in 2008, except without bombs. Consequential isn't collapse.

Quote from: REFar as outcomes go, it depends where you live how far along things are.

I agree. If you happen to live in Gaza, you are pretty collapsed. If you lived in Wehrmacht Germany, you were collapsed. All the times Troy was destroyed, probably aexcellent collapse.

All local events, which certainly isn't "societal collapse" as in not just local events. You mentioned an event sometime in past, where geneticists had determined that the human species had been down to like 25,000 breeding pairs or something in the past? THAT I can go for as collapse. Local examples are just local examples, which have always been with us, somewhere in the world.

Quote from: REIt'll get here in due time.
RE

Indeed. The Sun is getting lighter by 40 million tons every second. We are absolutety doomed. But as I have said before, and appears to be far more accurate than all the other doom claims to date, you, and me and K-Dog, our personal dooms are far more likely to arrive before any species level collapse. So for us this is all just jawboning, unless someone is hiding some cool personal collapse story, no food to eat, no health care, our German cars need shipped somewhere to get fixed, no electricity for my EV, whatever.

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 21, 2026, 12:13 PMDo you keep a running score to track your prognostication capabilities?

66.6% success rate.

RE

Quote from: RE on Mar 21, 2026, 02:13 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 21, 2026, 12:13 PMDo you keep a running score to track your prognostication capabilities?

66.6% success rate.

RE

On which topics? Peak oil, collapse, getting rich monetizing your websites and most recently the 3D printing stuff?

All topics.

RE

Quote from: K-Dog on Mar 23, 2026, 06:01 PMTDoS - You have one warning.  I don't want to hear another peep out of you about peak oil for 1 week.

A challenge!!!

Quote from: K-DogThis thread is about an actual ongoing energy crisis, and is not about your whining never ending rant about peak oil definitions.  Which is really just a veiled way of pissing on the Diner.  You could at least find an appropriate topic to post in instead of venting your sociopathic affinity for the dark side here.

I accept the challenge!!

Higher costs aren't an ongoing energy crisis, certainly not for you, me or RE. For poor people, every change in prices is a crisis, inflation causing them to suffer "always" crisis. You and I, spending 20K on heat pumps, us having some nice 4 wheeled hardware (mine doesn't even run on liquid fuels) are doing fine. And our taxes pay for RE to do what he does, I doubt they will feed him smaller portions of peas and carrots because fuel costs are going up.

Approproate topic to post on...okay...how about the varied types of Apocalyptians, those who suffer from a near religious belief in it regardless of facts, logic, science etc etc, and the reasons why?

Quote from: author=RE on Mar 23, 2026, 06:31 PMNor are facts always factual.

ha-ha <yawn>

AI SAY:A fact is something that is known to be true—an event, condition, or piece of information that can be proven through evidence, observation, or reliable verification.

I'll stick with the FACTS of a "fact" in this matter.

Your word games aren't near as clever as they used to be. You doing all right? I would love to come visit, but the wife is getting a little antsy about me wandering too far, I got sick twice last year that stuck around and were new experiences. Another trip to Prudhoe with a stop off in Anchorage would be great but I don't think she'd let me.

QuoteHigher costs aren't an ongoing energy crisis, certainly not for you, me or RE. For poor people, every change in prices is a crisis,

I am not exactly what your point is.  Fact is Americans do not have enough on average to provide long term security for themselves.  Living in a tent at 80 is not where I want to be.  How much does the average American need to make sure that does not happen.  Whatever the number is most Americans don't have it.  Working part time makes that less likely.  It significantly plugs up the drain and tops off the tank.

The average retirement balance for a 65-year-old is roughly $609,000 in America, but the median is only $200,000.  A small percentage of Americans have millions, but the majority of Americans are far from having it made in the shade.  And health care can break an average American at any time.

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 24, 2026, 05:01 PMI doubt they will feed him smaller portions of peas and carrots because fuel costs are going up.

WRONG!  Our portion sizes have shrunk by about 25% and we are getting lower quality meats and more meals with no meat at all.  Food inflation has been hitting tthe food budget heere quite hard.

RE

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 24, 2026, 05:07 PMAI SAY:A fact is something that is known to be true—an event, condition, or piece of information that can be proven through evidence, observation, or reliable verification.

Tell that to Faux Newz,  MAGA, Climate Change Deniers, Trumpsky and everyone else who claims they have the facts.  With AI and Deep Fakes facts can be quite hard to ascertain.   Seeing is not always believing.

RE

Quote from: K-Dog on Mar 24, 2026, 05:22 PM

QuoteHigher costs aren't an ongoing energy crisis, certainly not for you, me or RE. For poor people, every change in prices is a crisis,

I am not exactly what your point is.

That an energy crisis, as related to energy costs, are different for those in the situation you, me and RE are in, versus perhaps J6P, or the poor, to whom a $400 unexpected expense, or suddenly their fuel bill doubling, is a crisis.

Quote from: K-DogFact is Americans do not have enough on average to provide long term security for themselves.

Could be a fact, sounds reasonable, but first you would need to define what "provide long term security for themselves" might mean. If it means, everyone with a solid job deep into life, saving along the way, and enough to cover medical expenses and mortgage/rent/food a car and utilities and whatnot until death, well....that would be nice. Social Security was supposed to help provide these circumstances. I'm betting that many Americans might not be able to provide all of these items until death, let alone pass along a few bucks to the kids.

Quote from: K-DogLiving in a tent at 80 is not where I want to be. 

Same here. Good thing you aren't living in a tent then. You planned well. Not all do.

Quote from: K-DogThe average retirement balance for a 65-year-old is roughly $609,000 in America, but the median is only $200,000.

I understand skewed distributions very well, and I have no answer for why some people do better, or worse. If it were a matter of simple brain power, RE would have monetized his first website and be dining with Brazos as a consultant as to how to take over the rest of the world right now. It isn't all about brains, sometimes it is, combined with other skills and talent, and sometimes just luck. Timing. I bought some gold back in the early 80's, dumbest investment ever but I was young and stupid and had a car to trade and it looked like the world was ending. Stagflation was a bitch, get gold! Began investing in 401k's back when they became legal. Always contributed. The wife will enjoy any lifestyle she likes when I croak and it has nothing to do with the PMs. 

Quote from: K-DogA small percentage of Americans have millions, but the majority of Americans are far from having it made in the shade.  And health care can break an average American at any time.

Health care can be a bitch. I can carry mine into retirement I beleive, but damned if I know for sure. Medicaid is taking good care of my mom when she is ill.

I'll stick with the Hunter Thompson approach if at all possible.

Quote from: RE on Mar 24, 2026, 05:43 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Mar 24, 2026, 05:01 PMI doubt they will feed him smaller portions of peas and carrots because fuel costs are going up.

WRONG!  Our portion sizes have shrunk by about 25% and we are getting lower quality meats and more meals with no meat at all.  Food inflation has been hitting tthe food budget heere quite hard.

RE

Interesting. Well, you have my condolences. But remind me, along the course of your life, how much did you think about the long term, the kind of investing K-Dog and I have done, the availability of 401k's while teaching and during your working years, was any of that a concern to a primarily single person throughout their life? I know it wasn't a big deal to me when I was single, it was all motorcycles and fun, but then I got older.

Did you buy into doom so hard you didn't prepare at all for non-doom, other than whatever minimum requirements were deducted from your pay during working for the man years? And on a cost basis, was that to your advantage? In other words, you didn't pay in much, and the kind of care you are getting is far beyond what you paid in? Which makes your decision extremely financially advantageous towards cash when you could use and enjoy it in the past, versus now where you really can't because of circumstances.