Quote from: RE on Today at 09:24 AM

Quote from: Knarf on Today at 05:00 AMWhat AI did you use? That is a great definition of what is happening...collapse. Did you coach the AI with how you phrased your question or rapport with the AI. That makes such a difference in the way it responds. If you did "coach" it, good job!!! )

No coaching, I just dropped "civilization collapse definition" into Google's search box and clicked on their AI button. This is what it coughed up.

RE

It must have smelled Peter Turchin's crotch at some point.  Elite Overproduction is his thing.  It gave a very impressive response.  It always does on a well traveled road.

* And he is mentioned in # 2

Quote from: RE on Mar 10, 2026, 11:38 PMIf you use this definition, collapse is already here.  6 months from now it still will be, just with a range of new problems arising from this poorly thought out piece of geopolitical buffoonery.  I'm sure your ice maker will still work though.

RE

If you change the definitions of words to mean something else, of course they will fit any circumstances you like. Your first definition was better, and didn't have that "let me explain everything to you like a baby" that AI answers often have.

Too bad doomer folks of yesteryear didn't think more carefully about being less absolute in the moment, they wouldn't have left so many examples around proving that true believers really are that first.

Quote from: TDoS on Today at 04:02 PMIf you change the definitions of words to mean something else, of course they will fit any circumstances you like. Your first definition was better, and didn't have that "let me explain everything to you like a baby" that AI answers often have.

I didn't change anything.  Blame the AI.

Here's the 1st one:

The collapse of civilization means a complex society rapidly loses its large-scale institutions, cultural identity, and social complexity, leading to decentralization, violence, scarcity, and a regression to simpler, smaller-scale ways of living, often due to factors like war, famine, environmental disaster, or economic failure. It's characterized by a breakdown in governance, trade, and infrastructure, potentially leaving behind remnants of the past and forcing survivors into new, simpler societal structures or absorption by stronger groups

More concise, lacks the detail of #2.  They don't conflict though.

RE

QuoteBut at the same time, I think you should go to enormous lengths to avoid going to war unless you absolutely have to. But Israel has the opposite view. It lives by the sword. And I think if you live by the sword, you turn yourself into a modern version of Sparta, the end result is not going to be happy.

🚌 🍿  And here we are watching it happen.  Riding in the back seat of the bus eating popcorn while Bibi Netanyahu drives the bus.

This AI stuff is wild. I tried looking people up, like Art "There is No Significant Oil In US Shale" and it did a reasonable job of being...polite. Lacked detail though, particular when he hosed things up. So I looked up myself and that was interesting as well, it found more by just making a small change, but it reasonably quantified and described published works, area of expertise, and contributions to science and whatnot. More than I expected it to know. I've used it for some coding recently, and that was less effective, but still I learned from some of what it laid out.

Not sure I'll take its word for collapse though, considering how differently it has been characterized by the true beleivers.

It knew that David White at the USGS was predicting peak oils as far back as 1919. That isn't a well known one, but it knew. I'll have to poke around on deep research issues and see if it knows that, then ask it to explain why so many folks got it wrong spanning a century and see if it figures out the trick in the question.

It has already made a mistake on hydraulic fracturing, claiming Hubbert didn't know about it in 1956, which he certainly did. It didn't seem to know the timing of when horizontal drilling began either, assigning to a post 1970 time frame as to why Hubbert was wrong.

Quote from: TDoS on Today at 07:29 PMNot sure I'll take its word for collapse though, considering how differently it has been characterized by the true beleivers.
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That's your prerogative.  The rest of us here find it reasonable though, so for the purposes of Diner discussion, that's what we'll use.  Better than ice making in any event.

RE