Quote from: RE on Mar 30, 2026, 11:42 AM

OILPRICE.COM • 2026-03-30

Is Trump About To Fall Into Iran’s Trap?

Iran is trying to lure the U.S. into a ground war, knowing prolonged involvement could force Washington into a more favorable deal for Tehran. The Houthis’ escalation is meant to trigger U.S. military intervention by endangering global oil flows. Dual chokepoint disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb could cripple up to ~45% of global oil supply, potentially sending prices toward $150–$200+ and pressuring the global economy.

About to?  Well, first he still does have to actually get the Jarheads through the straight before they can even make the attempt to take the island.  Meanwhile, there are hundreds of tankers loaded with Oil floating around in the Gulf.  All the Iranians need to do is sink a couple, then set the oil slick on fire.  This I suspect is what they mean by setting the troops on fire.

RE

I do not agree with his analysis.  Iran does not want to lose Iranians just to get Americans.  As strategy keeping an enemy out of your borders is a good idea.  Iran has defensive weapons to keep the invasion from happening.  Missiles and drones.  They will use them before they kill their young men.  Iran cares about life more than whoever wrote this article does.  The author has a western warbucks attitude.

Taking out the desalination plants would be effective.  The US would be sidelined by supplying water for millions of people.  That would end the invasion plan.  Our psychopaths in charge will not want to do it, but it is their ass if they do not.

Quote from: K-Dog on Mar 30, 2026, 11:47 AMTaking out the desalination plants would be effective.  The US would be sidelined by supplying water for millions of people.  That would end the invasion plan.  Our psychopaths in charge will not want to do it, but it is their ass if they do not.[/color]

Targeting desalinization plants is a war crime, besides which if they hit the Iranian ones, the Iranians will hit the Saudi, Omani, Kuwaiti & UAE ones.  No oil at all would flow since all the oil workers would be dying of thirst after about a week.

RE

It would not be a war crime if Iran were ready to meet basic thirst requirements.  Iran takes out the desalination plants and then informs the Americans they have to leave immediately as their presence prevents Iran from meeting the basic thirst requirements of the Gulf states. 

Which Iran then shows the world they are ready to do.  Then the US has to counter by supplying water for millions itself, and that sidelines the invasion.  Trucking water for thirst would only be a few million gallons a day.  It would be a logistical nightmare for the US.  But not so much for Iran. 

Taking out a desalination plant would not be a war crime if you stand ready to provide water for basic needs.

If all the desal plants are bombed, where do they get the water from?  Fly it in from Russia?  Millions of bottles of water?  Daily? I don't think so.  Not a good plan.

RE

Quote from: RE on Mar 30, 2026, 02:57 PMIf all the desal plants are bombed, where do they get the water from?  Fly it in from Russia?  Millions of bottles of water?  Daily? I don't think so.  Not a good plan.

RE

I don't agree,  It can be trucked in from someplace up north, and I think the Iranians agreed with me about two hours ago.

"bowser" is Australian English for a fuel pump at a gas station (what Americans usually call a gas pump).


<--  You know, this place.  Back in the day being in the southern hemisphere might have bought some time.  As things are now, down under is among the first places to say :

RE

I edit the descriptions if they are long.  A visual appeal thing.  More description can be added in the Diner to keep length shorter.  The idea is to follow the Trackack and read the article for discussion and info.  Which at least you and I are doing.

Good article, Krugman has had a large presence on YouTube in the last few weeks.  I think Krugman feels the same way I do about Trump, but as a public figure he has to keep his feeling more on the downlow.

He chose an interesting video to pair with his article.  Krugman wants to scream to the winds about how much Trump has fucked America.  Trump's next bad move will bake $200 oil in the cake.




Demand destruction and economic fragmentation are the most likely outcomes. That is the core flaw in the structural bull market thesis. In a world constrained by debt, weak growth, and systemic instability, it is unrealistic to assume that capital cycle dynamics from decades past will repeat.

So in summary, after we get high gas prices they will come back down, but nobody will have a job.

Quote from: K-Dog on Mar 31, 2026, 01:36 PM

ARTBERMAN.COM • 2026-03-27

A System Failure is Not an Oil Bull Market

This is not simply higher prices. It is disruption of oil, gas, fertilizers, and critical trade flows. It may produce a short-term bull market in energy, but that strength will persist only until the economic system begins to weaken.

Art has always been good for a laugh. I get all his posts in my inbox, and his use of AI has been a bit...over the top as of late. Anyone who has read his work pre-AI can spot it pretty easily. The guy is as bland boring as any presenter I"ve ever seen, and that is without the factual errors he makes, and gets called out for in public (national conventions no less).

I suppose those unaware of his past work won't know any better, but you two have at least been around the block once. And have met quite a few of those since disgraced in the value of their opinion by actual results. Does quality not matter?

Demand destruction and economic fragmentation are the most likely outcomes.  That is the correct framework.

Can the global economy can survive the spike without triggering a cascade of defaults, policy errors, and de-globalization that permanently then lowers the oil price ceiling for years to come.  A market where people could buy oil products if they had money.  Which they do not as it has been all vacuumed to the top.

Your criticism of Berman is accusation without substance.  You have found no fault with his argument.  It appears your dislike of him seems personal.  Are you jealous?  You have not refuted the structural bull market critique, you only offers a reason to ignore the person making it.  But you do it without any bonafides of your own.  Making your criticism worthless.

Engage with the actual argument.  That a wartime spike in a debt-saturated economy will destroy demand before supply can respond.  Or admit you have nothing to add.

This upcoming likelihood was mentioned by Paul Krugman, but I think ME-E is a little more clear and specific regarding the probability of Demand Destruction becoming the greater problem arising from the current restricted supply.  Your average J6P along with dimwit Pols like El Trumpo focuses more on the inflation they see right now, but once DD kicks in you get the spiral of bankruptcies, rising UE & bank failures as loans & mortgages get defaulted on.  This doesn't happen immediately, it takes a few months as businesses fall behind on their coupon payments until they are forced to default and make it public.  Paul addressses it from the academic side, but M E-E has to deal with this blowback in lotsa real money, so you should pay attention.  I'd give it to mid summer before it really begins to bite, a little sooner in Europe, a bit later here.  Hard to say how deep the spiral goes down yet, but every day that goes by makes it exponentially more difficult to recover from.

RE

The rockets falling in the Middle East are sending shockwaves straight to your dinner plate. When the U.S.-led military intervention in Iran escalated, most expected an energy crisis. They watched the oil markets and the gasoline pumps. And indeed prices have soared, with the Brent barrel hovering at around $105 and U.S. gas prices topping $4 for the first time since 2022.

But the real casualty of this war may be far more insidious, and it starts in the soil.

Our modern food system is based on a foundation of natural gas, and now that foundation is cracking. It's becoming clearer as the war drags on that the world is bound to face a historic global fertiliser shortage. With the Strait of Hormuz restricted by the Iranian military, shipments of critical agricultural chemicals have effectively stopped.

The result is a cascading failure across the global supply chain. This bottleneck is pushing food prices toward record highs not seen since the 1970s energy crisis, threatening millions of people with severe food insecurity...

Follow the link for more.

How many people will Trumpolini starve?  He might out kill Hitler, Stalin, Mao & Pol Pot put together!

RE

QuoteHow many people will Trumpolini starve?  He might out kill Hitler, Stalin, Mao & Pol Pot put together!

It comes down to if the narcissistic trapped animal will use a nuke.  But perhaps I should type 'when' instead of 'if' Trump uses a nuke.  At this point I'd bet on it.  After all, the motherfucker wants to go down in history as a big big man, and the heartless cretin will smoke people in a heartbeat.  He has shown that already.

Given the choice of knowing that a lot of Americans are about to die Trump will nuke.  He won't be doing it to save American lives, don't misunderstand.  Trump will do it to prevent the blowback from mass casualties and he thinks using a nuke will save his ass.

Exactly how far is it from Iran can't have nukes to I'm using my nuke.  Somebody get me a map.

We are now living in the time of a trapped animal, unfortunately this animal in not powerless in a bunker as his enemies close in.  He is a demented fool who will play god.



Everything you need to know.  Watch this Downfall clip, and you will be up to date on the war.  More will happen, but this brings you up to date.

Quote from: K-Dog on Today at 10:52 AMEverything you need to know.  Watch this Downfall clip, and you will be up to date on the war.  More will happen, but this brings you up to date.

I love the Hitler parodies.  Bruno Ganz did the greatest Hitler impersonation EVAH! 😁  He was a better Hitler than Hitler.  lol.

RE

My suggestion to the employees, use your sick leave.  Call in.

This is tit for tat because Trump just hit Iran hard, and Iran gave fair warning that they would retaliate against US companies.