80% reduction in power @ 1035 ft, complete shutdown at 950 ft, Deadpool @ 895 ft.  Besides the power problems, CA agriculture is gonna get hit hard.

RE

Quote from: RE on Aug 07, 2026, 01:34 AMTo Frogs in a pot of water, the temperature is always normal unless one keeps track.  Otherwise they're cooked.
RE

An interesting analogy used often with peak oil. You know, all the ones since 1990 that allegedly boiled those frogs.

Oops.

Quote from: K-Dog on Aug 07, 2026, 02:56 PMPrices, for homes in Henderson NV are down 2.6% over the past year.  But since that won't kill anybody directly, and the domestic violence increase shall be buried in noise, TDOS won't be able to call it a collapse.

Analytics are analytics. Prices of homes around the country in 2008 went down? Double digits? 20%? Wasn't buried in the noise, WAS the story and....yup...population didn't decrease either, so it wasn't collapse.

TOD called peak oil in 2008 to coincide with it. A double collapse! Peak oil and cratering home prices!

But the world population powered right through it.

Quote from: RE on Aug 07, 2026, 02:58 PM

WATERDESK.ORG • 2026-08-07

Hoover Dam approaches a hydropower cliff

“We’re going to go to 1,035,” Tom Buschatzke, director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources, said at a meeting in mid-May. “There’s no question that’s going to happen.”

RE

THIS ONE HAS POTENTIAL!!!! Not real collapse mind you, but POTENTIAL FOR PEOPLE TO NOTICE!!!  And I don't mean like they noticed peak oil, some mainstream commentary here and there, but REAL issues related to REAL problems. THIS is a great consequence of human action, overconsumption, climate change, idiots in charge, waiting to the last minute when it is too late, will have direct and unavoidable consequences that wind bag dementia addled geriatric Presidents can't lie their way out of.

I await dead pool with the kind of excitement doomers awaited peak oil doom. The difference being I'm betting on a far more sure thing.

Quote from: TDoS on Aug 07, 2026, 04:53 PMTHIS ONE HAS POTENTIAL!!!! Not real collapse mind you, but POTENTIAL FOR PEOPLE TO NOTICE!!!

You think people in Bucharest don't notice their Nuke plant go offline?  Like unless it's in Amerika, it's not a problem?  Collapse is a global phenomenon, and Vienna, Madrid, San Juan etc all count too.  The fact Amerikans don't "sit up & take notice" doesn't make it any less real.

RE

Quote from: RE on Aug 07, 2026, 05:08 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Aug 07, 2026, 04:53 PMTHIS ONE HAS POTENTIAL!!!! Not real collapse mind you, but POTENTIAL FOR PEOPLE TO NOTICE!!!

You think people in Bucharest don't notice their Nuke plant go offline?  Like unless it's in Amerika, it's not a problem?  Collapse is a global phenomenon, and Vienna, Madrid, San Juan etc all count too.  The fact Amerikans don't "sit up & take notice" doesn't make it any less real.

RE

Quote from: RE on Aug 07, 2026, 05:08 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Aug 07, 2026, 04:53 PMTHIS ONE HAS POTENTIAL!!!! Not real collapse mind you, but POTENTIAL FOR PEOPLE TO NOTICE!!!

You think people in Bucharest don't notice their Nuke plant go offline?

Of course they'll notice it. I think AZ,CA,NV will notice lack of water AND power more.

Quote from: RELike unless it's in Amerika, it's not a problem?

Nonsense. We are talking about DOOM stuff, not "problems". Doomers aren't named "ProblemPimpers", but "Doomers". Hence the interesting definitions of Doom including population decline. You were on ROE as I was, are you seriously telling me you don't have a history there expanding "problems" into Doom because there was no real Doom around involving the population decrease? Certainly it was being claimed, prior to the entire gang getting discredited between then and now.

Quote from: RECollapse is a global phenomenon, and Vienna, Madrid, San Juan etc all count too.

Indeed. ALL countries count. And remind me, how much have these "problems" reduced world population?

Quote from: REThe fact Amerikans don't "sit up & take notice" doesn't make it any less real.
RE

Well, we can talk about collapse when those population figures show it then. Otherwise, faux collapse aka "problems" are more described as some form of local inconvenience. Might people die because of it? Yes. Just like they do when a volcano goes off nearby. A flood, a damn breaks, an airplane crashes, all problems.

None of them are collapse until it meets an actual definition, which we have previously discussed. I am sorry you can't see a collapse of civilization right now, something you've been claiming for a long time, but don't blame me. Find an objective observer to claim that market declines, power plant outages (MAYBE), malaise in the markets, years of lower oil production between various peak oils along the way, you find THAT person to change the official definition of collapse to "oh yes and humans can collapse while happpily continuing to breed ever higher numbers" and we'll discuss the quality of their idea.

We've been over the population question before.  Most of the large population industrialized countries are in decline already. Besides that, it's a lagging indicator.  We won't see a full census of what is going on now until after 2030 when the UN compiles numbers.  We can revisit this in 2031 or so.

RE

Quote from: RE on Aug 08, 2026, 03:11 PMWe've been over the population question before.  Most of the large population industrialized countries are in decline the already.

Collapse CAN be a local event. Like Katrina. But that isn't the one Doomers get all worked up over. When you were in full doomer mode with websites and followers and fundage down in South Carolina, is what you were selling was some folks in Eastern Europe having to put up solar panels or NG fired generation to replace electricity from a nuke plant? Because water for coolant was low? No....that wasn't what you were interested in.

The reason you reach for small potatoes is because there aren't any big potato items going on. Or none on a current fuse anyway. Climate change is to slow on your timeframe to be of interest. Peak oils have come and gone a few times without anyone noticing. The US, for all its idiot political crap is still feeding people, oligarches, illegals, retiree's, and those completely dependent on the state. Now THAT one is a criteria I think might be, or should be, most of personal concern. I have the same concern but in a different way. If care of the elderly goes south and contributes to a falling population, I've got to figure out how to care for my mother. Fortunately that is possible for me, but probably not for everyone.

Quote from: REBesides that, it's a lagging indicator.  We won't see a full census of what is going on now until after 2030 when the UN compiles numbers.  We can revisit this in 2031 or so.
RE

Now, lagging indicator is a good angle. Population decrease is always happening, as is population replacement. But for the balance of births to deaths to go net negative would be visible as it happens. So....do we have any indication of people dying at unprecedented, but not yet numerically significant enough to count, events?

Nuke plants MAYBE shutting down certainly ain't it. Russia's war might be s start? Russia seems to be losing quite a few folks. The usual poor countries in Africa perhaps? Anything new there on  a scale that outweighs new births do you think?

I previously responded listing all the countries with declining populations.  You can search for it.

RE

Poor Brown Amerikans.

RE

Quote from: RE on Aug 08, 2026, 07:58 PMI previously responded listing all the countries with declining populations.  You can search for it.
RE

Sure I can search for it. But I'm not a piecemeal collapse-o-not, I am a BIG TIME COLLAPSER!!!!! You know, like peak oilers were, like you used to be before you voiced this recent "little countries decreasing in population is collapse" angle. The oilers went to full on DOOM, which was picked up by those with similar ideas but using a different mechanism (global cooling in 1970 for example).

A country with a decreasing birthrate can EASILY create the illusion of a population decrease without any doom anywhere. EASY. Which is why country level can't be the metric.

This is Japan's population. Feel free to point out how TERRIBLE this measure of collapse has bothered them otherwise. Bodies piling up in the street? How many are starving each year? Etc etc. Apparently collapse started for them around 2010.....any evidence of anything other than a decreasing population? Bodies piling up in the streets from starvation, ALMOST lack of electricity like your nuke example?

Quote from: REPoor Brown Amerikans.
RE

If, and looking like "when" Boulder dam has both a power and water issue, is it your opinion that it will effect only the non brown Americans? In Puerto Rico, surrounded by an ocean, water isn't the actual issue at all. The money for desalinization plants might be, but that is a money problem, not a water problem. Boulder Dam however, that could be directly a water problem and can discriminate on wealth rather than skin color.

Quote from: TDoS on Aug 09, 2026, 02:39 PMA country with a decreasing birthrate can EASILY create the illusion of a population decrease without any doom anywhere.

The empty homes are not an illusion.




RE