I never said it's an exclusive club.  Capitalism isn't the ONLY system that rewards Violence & Evil.  Its precursor Feudalism was much the same, as were the early Ag based Empires.  Monarchies had both violent and beneficent rulers over the centuries.  Going back to neolithic living, they tended to be peaceful except in existential circumstances when it was a  matter of survival.  Broadly speaking, as the size of the social organization shrinks, it becomes more cooperative.  On an evolutionary level, we're most similar to Bonobos, sharing 98% the same DNA.  As Great Apes go, very peaceful and friendly species.

I could go into more of the anthropology that impacts on behavior, how trade, Ag, property ownership and money changed behavior over the millenia, but it's too long and involved a topic to do a decent treatment of for me these days.  Suffice it to say that when organized in groups around the size of Dunbar's Number within around 2 orders of magnitude, human nature rewards cooperative behavior more and it predominates.  Larger than that, greedy and self serving behavior is rewarded better.  Once we have a sufficient population crash, we can look forward to the Inner Bonobo in Homo sap to reemerge.🥰




RE

The latest expansion of the War pretty much guarantees high fuel prices through the election, which should translate to Chump losing both houses of CONgress.  I don't think even the promise of $5000 if you go out and Vote Repugnant will hold the majority, although  if he adds a few more dirty tricks to influence the election ya never know.

Far as the actual shipping situation goes, all they need to do to really bollocks it up is to hit the Suez Canal and nearly all ME oil will be bottled up nicely.  With no end in sight to the Ukie War either, it could be a very cold winter in Europe.

The less Oil that flows out, the closer the wars edge to going to Tactical Nukes.  I've been reading more articles seriously discussing their use, particularly for the goal of "Breaking Up" Russia  The chaos that would ensue from that plan would be enormous.  It might neuter them as a military threat, but the economic results would be catastrophic.  Even less Oil would move, at much higher prices.

Overall, the situation is spinning up out of control.

RE

Quote from: REOverall, the situation is spinning up out of control.

RE

What! Please!! This is a collapse blog....things are always spinning out of control..and if they aren't obvious...we find some and claim it anyway! It is the entire purpose of these types of blogs! Pointing out to innocents who so easily succumb to claims of....DOOM!  To the common man this is the usual nonsense geopolitical crap expected when idiots are in charge and their idiocy plays out in the field of global geopolitc events, said effects being correlated with the idiots stature in the politico sphere. 

It is counter-intuitive that if in fact we are already collapsing (as defined previously) that this half baked self inflicted idiots Persian Gulf nonsense from Our Dear Leader and its consequences matter in the least! 360,000 children are born each day. Therefore a claimed collapse has to have more than 360,000 people a day expiring, for a decrease in population. The 10's or even 100's dying a week during the Orange Ones adventures in the Middle East is INVISIBLE compared to the 360,000 people a day required to have humanity beginning collapse. It isn't even a rounding error!

Now, with the nuke theory..maybe..MAYBE...you can contribute more than the 10's or 100's. But if a nuke only does Hiroshima or Nagasake damage (call it 180,000 for 2 nukes, so we'll round up to 100,000 per nuke used) then we need  3+ of those a day to create just the bare minimmum to match what ALREADY has to be happening to create a collapse. So then you have ongoing collapse, MINIMUM of 360,000/day, keep adding 360,000 infants a day, then add in 300,000 more for dropping 3 nukes on population centers every day, assume we don't run out of nukes, or population centers, 8.3 billion people, it would be like.....and it would take.... 75 YEARS TO ERASE HUMANS ENTIRELY!

Even THAT implausible scenario of induced collapse takes WAY too long....unless of course you are in one of those population centers in the first 10-20 years.

But at least collapse would be undeniable by anyone. As opposed to just currently hopes and dreams.

Quote from: TDoS on Sep 11, 2026, 01:54 PMTherefore a claimed collapse has to have more than 360,000 people a day expiring, for a decrease in population. The 10's or even 100's dying a week during the Orange Ones adventures in the Middle East is INVISIBLE compared to the 360,000 people a day required to have humanity beginning collapse. It isn't even a rounding error!

Your math viewed in a mirror seems technically correct, but it is as morally hollow as an empty box.  A society doesn't need mass extinction to collapse when nobody who matters cares enough to stop it.  Imagine you are hanging 100 feet in the air from a tree branch and it breaks.  Technically you are alive for 2.49 seconds.

On this website you are dead as soon as the branch breaks.  Get used to it.

The fall begins when the branch breaks, not when you hit the ground. Collapse is not dead bodies per day.  Collapse is the silence after the first broken promise.  It is denial and ignored warnings, it is when the last person who can make a change stops believing change is possible, that person certifies collapse.

You wait for bodies to pile up before acknowledging collapse.  With that attitude I don't think it is possible for you to catch a train on time, any day in the week.

Quote from: TDoS on Sep 11, 2026, 01:54 PMthis is the usual nonsense geopolitical crap expected when idiots are in charge and their idiocy plays out in the field of global geopolitc events, said effects being correlated with the idiots stature in the politico sphere.

The fact that idiots are in charge itself is an indicator of collapse. 😀

RE

QuoteThe fact that idiots are in charge itself is an indicator of collapse.

I had that exact thought yesterday, about 10:30 in the morning.  With idiots in charge, it can't happen any other way.  With idiots in charge, there is no way out.

But who is the bigger idiot?  The idiot with the power, or the idiots who let him have the power.

Quote from: K-Dog on Sep 11, 2026, 02:27 PMYour math viewed in a mirror seems technically correct, but it is as morally hollow as an empty box.

Oh, now THIS is interesting.

Would you please elaborate for us your perspective on the morality of....MATH. 

We can start with the basics. Is 2+2=4, while technically correct, morally hollow? And if so...why? And if so, how do we tell why? Is 4-2=2 equally morally hollow because all the numbers, 2 two's and 1 four, involved regardless of order? Or is 4-2=2 NOT morally hollow because the sequence of the order matters?

Quote from: K-DogA society doesn't need mass extinction to collapse when nobody who matters cares enough to stop it.  Imagine you are hanging 100 feet in the air from a tree branch and it breaks.  Technically you are alive for 2.49 seconds.

Okay, technically you are alive for 2.49 seconds (I'll grant you the math skills to understand the linear acceleration involved to get the right answer on time (t) until impact across a given distance.

I am UNCLEAR as to the relationship between this example and morality however. Strikes me that morality isn't involved in either the branch breaking, nor the force of gravity accelerating someone to their doom. Yes....they are alive for a short period of time, technically, but as we all know, Divine Intervention has happened before...Jesus did come back from a worse fate you know.

Quote from: K-DogOn this website you are dead as soon as the branch breaks.  Get used to it.

I have no illusions about mortality. Morality however is entirely a different ball of wax.

Quote from: K-DogYou wait for bodies to pile up before acknowledging collapse.

Come on K-Dog, I didn't put out the definition of what a real collapse is, a disinterested 3rd party did. Just because someone HOPES for a thing to happen, doesn't mean it is, or will. Happens every NFL season. Every team NFL team has fans that claim they will win the Super Bowl. Some fans are correct. All the others wrong, that year. Apocalyticism exists because there is an idea that has come down through the ages.

I am only waiting for the definition to be met. It isn't HARD, technically more people have to pass away in a given year than are born. Low level "collapse", could be erased in another year or two. Easy-peasy, no morality involved. I am not a bad person for knowing what the BEGINNING of collapse is...I am just following the rules. Like those in math. No emotion, no pleasure or unhappiness in the math, no morality at all in math. It just...IS.

Apocalypticism is a REAL thing, and collapses have happened before, and are relatively rare. 

Quote from: K-DogWith that attitude I don't think it is possible for you to catch a train on time, any day in the week.

Attitude...please. It is math, logic and the dispassion of a professional scientist. I know when the train arrives, and am standing there waiting. I ride the Metro in DC quite effectively on any day of the week. Did it just last week.

Quote from: K-Dog on Sep 11, 2026, 02:46 PMBut who is the bigger idiot?  The idiot with the power, or the idiots who let him have the power.[/color]

Even more than let him, they GAVE him the power.

The answer to this question probably does have something to do with Human Nature.  You could ask the same thing about the idiot Germans who put Hitler in power.

Most Homo Saps are followers.  When times are tough they look to leaders who seem sure of themselves and who tell them things they want to hear.  Any critical thinking skills they might have go out the window even when they are bombarded with bald faced lies, as long as the lies are comforting.  Even when it becomes apparent they were wrong, rather than admit error they'll double down on the lies and false promises.

Collapse presents intractable problems for which there are no easy answers.  When the idiot leader steps  forward and presents his easy answer with complete conviction, the idiots eat it up.  Unfortunately for Homo Saps, as a group we're not much smarter than our close cousins the Bonobos.  Another truth about Human Nature is YOU CAN'T FIX STUPID.



RE

Quote from: RE on Sep 11, 2026, 02:30 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Sep 11, 2026, 01:54 PMthis is the usual nonsense geopolitical crap expected when idiots are in charge and their idiocy plays out in the field of global geopolitc events, said effects being correlated with the idiots stature in the politico sphere.

The fact that idiots are in charge itself is an indicator of collapse. 😀

RE

Not according to the common definitions. Idiots in charge is common across many countries and cultures....and if their population wasn't decreasing, it was just run of the mill idiots in charge. There is no requirement of correlation.

Of course, anyone can claim collapse and pretend it is true. Look how that turned out for peak oilers.

Quote from: TDoS on Sep 11, 2026, 06:58 PMOf course, anyone can claim collapse and pretend it is true. Look how that turned out for peak oilers.

Turned out pretty well.  They weren't wrong, just a bit early.  Timelines are tricky when making Predictions, particularly about the future. 😁

RE

Quote from: RE on Sep 11, 2026, 06:56 PMThe answer to this question probably does have something to do with Human Nature.  You could ask the same thing about the idiot Germans who put Hitler in power.

Most Homo Saps are followers.  When times are tough they look to leaders who seem sure of themselves and who tell them things they want to hear.  Any critical thinking skills they might have go out the window even when they are bombarded with bald faced lies, as long as the lies are comforting.  Even when it becomes apparent they were wrong, rather than admit error they'll double down on the lies and false promises.

Bald faced lies like peak oil? Global cooling? I agree about the followers. But the lies are not required to be comforting. Apocalypticism isn't about "comfort", it is about folks believing the opposite. For little reasons, religious reasons, or no reasons at all. Other than someone told them we were entering the next Ice Age. Or peak oil was going to kill us all. In the last century. The lies AREN'T comforting, so we can't claim that comforting is particularly valuable. For some strange reason actually....what is the psychology of those seeking out Doom and then believing...while waiting...and waiting...and waiting some more.

Been doing it for a millenia. Probably not as common as those buying into hopium, but hopium does seem easier to fall for.

Quote from: RE on Sep 11, 2026, 07:03 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Sep 11, 2026, 06:58 PMOf course, anyone can claim collapse and pretend it is true. Look how that turned out for peak oilers.

Turned out pretty well.  They weren't wrong, just a bit early.

Just like collapse. The Sun is getting lighter every second, collapse is a given.

As far as peak oil, sure, a little early. The "how late are we" currently standing around 140 years since the first professional claimed it in 1886. But you are quite correct, peak oil is a given. Always was, Hubbert did the math, there is no question of it validity. I got banned for pointing it out in the same paragraph where I told folks they didn't know dick about why geology wasn't allowing their particular wet dream to happen in any particular decade.

Quote from: RETimelines are tricky when making Predictions, particularly about the future. 😁
RE

Apocalyptians have been proving this true for a millenia.

Chief orange idiot has us totally fucked.  Prices on everything are about to soar.




This 9-11 anniversary appears to be another nexus of long term implications.



And the price of diesel is already high.

Nice move by the Towel Heads!  The FSoA shot its Ballistic Wad in the attacks on Iran and have nothing left to take on the Houthis!  It's going to make it close to impossible for the Saudis to export more than a trickle of Oil with both straights blocked and theE-W pipeline shut down.  Which means they'll have to start shutting down wells when storage runs out.

The economy will be bonkers by November.

RE

They shut down the pipeline for safety reasons.  Which on the FM radio you might hear between heating and cooling commercials.  And I do understand.  When there are holes in the pipeline and the pumps are burned up, keeping the pipeline open would be unsafe.  Safety reasons, shut the puppy down.