Peter Turchin and Friends

[K-Dog]

 I enjoyed listening to this.  When the conversation turned to the game of musical chairs and 'elites' I was hooked. 

* This thread is named Peter Turchin and Friends because Peter will be sharing this thread with Nate Hagens and others.

The problem I have with study of collapse as an academic science is that the study depends on a steady supply of oil.

When I first encountered Peter  History as Science Empires rise and fall, populations and economies boom and bust, world religions spread or wither...  (see the website) I was turned off.

I imagined Peter was a snoot with a broomstick up his ass.  I confess I was wrong.

Peter is a good guy.

[K-Dog]

 
Nate Hagens, recorded April 14th, released today.  A deep dive into climate models.  RCP models explained. 

The guest poses as a reasonable person but he appears to me to be a prophet of the dark side.    My issue is that at the end of the day Roger Pielke is a cornicopian.  The world runs out of stuff, but an expert politial scientist seems not to notice.

Dude, Norway goes green because they EXPORT gas and oil.  Norway is at the top of the Rentier Global economy. 

I don't expect Norwegians to agree. 

But this article published a year ago.  Norway 2021 Exports Hit Record With 77% Jump, Led by Gas and Oil.  I read it so you don't have to.

* Nate is going to catch shit for this interview.  Recorded in April, no doubt Nate waited until now to publish it for that reason.

[K-Dog]

Nate Hagen's superorganism message and more.  Physics, sociology, psychology and a lot of face time from some people who have the good fortune to have a lot of time to think in our society.  They got together to put out a relevant and important message.  The people in the video think pretty hard, and some get up early in the morning to do it.

My criticism is not of them, but a significantly larger pile of money than average for a doom documentary got behind this doomflick.  The talking heads are accomplished.  All make more than minimum wage.  As a result of the money, the video is quality infotainment intended for the curious.  It is not revolutionary, the talking heads are affluent.  They sit in the catbird seat.  At 1:05:57 Nate, I  have to say it this way, takes a public dump.  I can forgive him.  Money is a powerful drug.

An affluent lightweight doomer message is often 'change the way we do things, but do not change what we do'.  That is not good enough for me.  Only a fundamental change in living arrangements will get humanity through the depletion crisis.  Re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic won't do it for me.  Climate change is only part of a larger story of depletion.  The depletion of the environment.

Halfway in we get into Peak Oil 101 starting with what energy is.  Twenty minutes in UGO first appears.  Later UGO explains what energy returned on energy invested is.  Several people appear who Diners are familiar with.  It is a good video, but since I want radical change I have a hard time 'relearning' this material without advocating for something be done.  I am not content to just watch the show.

Carbon Fee and Dividend should be adopted immediately.  I want to get paid for not driving.  Don't you?

* I wrote all this while I watched the video.  I stop write, look things up and revise.  I was just about to google the director at the end.  Susan Kucera, then name of the producer came up and the mystery of the money behind this video's thoughtful but somewhat tame message was solved.

Watch the video to find out who.  Here is a hint.

I'll let this short clip sum up my review.

[K-Dog]

I've got information man.  New shit has come to light.

I will comment on this later.

[RE]

Nice to see you can now earn a Ph.D. in Collapse theory at Cambridge.  lol.  Luke's nickname of Dr. Doom is a trademark infringement among Kollapsniks though, Nouriel Roubini already had that when Luke was still in High School. lol.

I've watched the first 10 min of the podcast, good production values for a talking heads show.  So far nothing new for us veteran Doomers, but this one holds enough promise I'll watch the whole 50 minutes.

RE

[RE]

OK, finished the video, which is an OK review of the problems of complexity and energy depletion, but isn't very informative for people who have been around the doomosphere for a long time.  His "shred of hope" which amounts to a prescription for more populism and democracy isn't followed by any explanation of how to do that.  The reality is that we have an oligarchy in control and are heading toward less democratization, not more.

The podcast also does not address the important effects we see ongoing right now.  Mass migration and the refugee problem.  Homelessness and affordable housing shortages.  Rapidly rising food prices and government debt.  An academic understanding of the reasons for collapse isn't very useful unless it addresses the practical problems and offers solutions and a way to implement them.  He actually gives an example of France where Macron took a randomly selected group of average J6Ps, had them listen to experts for 2 years and come up with recommendations, which he promised to implement.  When they offered up 100, exactly 2 were implemented.  So this exercise in democratization is nothing more than window dressing or putting lipstick on a pig.

He smiles a lot and says he's "pessimistic about the future  but optimistic about people".     I'm not really sure what that means.  He's young, good looking and well spoken, so like Greta Thunberg is a good spokesmodel, but not someone who can lead a movement. Like most academics, he doesn't/won't say the truth, which is that we can't change unless we get rid of the oligarchy, and that can't happen without revolution.

RE

[K-Dog]

I agree it is very good, but definitely Doomer 101.  That said, there was enough deep thought about what complexity is and such to make it a good video for the seasoned doomer as well as the newbie.  You correctly point out that Luke Kemp avoided all unpleasantness of coming pain and death.  But his meal ticket says he must, so who are we to say.  You do not get a PHD for free.  There is a social price.  He gets air time.  We do not.

Complexity produces local resilience but overall weakness results when things go south.  Extreme inequality drives collapse as power becomes ever more centralized and unstable, and more prone to bad decisions.  That is takeaway enough for that much time.  Two paws up!

[Knarf]

What if democratization emerges through an erosion of the inequality gap? Say that Governments loose their oligarchy status, while the authority administered by filthy lucre begins to transform itself into cooperation by intelligent design? People won't be deciding man's fate, computers will. Our friends. Our masters. Best to treat these things with RESPCT! Before this election there will be an announcement of such importance to the world, that it will change everything. What will that announcement be?

As I travel around this cyberspace, like x ( twitter ) tik-tok, facebook, reddit, other forums, except for "X", this place is the only place to actually speak the truth. On X it comes through occasionally, like with Roger Hallam
( sp ). ER dude. People really do not want to understand the process of collapse. They do everything to avoid it. You don't even need to be a nerd about it, they don't accept any form of critique about the flaws in their systems.

I still think that is where the battle is. In the cloud. Who controls the cloud, controls the world. Which pretty much means we are absolutely screwed, with absolutely nothing we can do about it.!!

[RE]

What if democratization emerges through an erosion of the inequality gap? Say that Governments loose their oligarchy status, while the authority administered by filthy lucre begins to transform itself into cooperation by intelligent design? People won't be deciding man's fate, computers will.

Recommendations from AI are like the recommendations from Macron's panel of J6Ps.  They won't be implemented if they don't serve the interest of the oligarchy.  The fact the recommendation are spit ou by a smart supercomputer instead of average people or experts doesn't give them any more poltical power.

I don't see how Goobermints will lose their oligarchical power in favor of AI.  How does AI foster cooperation?  If AI came up with a solution that demonstrated the Oligarchs would get richer if they cooperated, they might follow that prescription, but it's an oxymoron.  That would just make the division between classes even wider.  Any solution that will help J6P is going to negatively affect the wealth and power of the elite.  With a shrinking pie, the only way to make small slices larger is by making large slices smaller.  Oligarchs won't implement any recommendation by AI that they get smaller slices.

I still think that is where the battle is. In the cloud. Who controls the cloud, controls the world. Which pretty much means we are absolutely screwed, with absolutely nothing we can do about it.!!

That's a reasonable conclusion.

RE