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Global Birthrate Decline

Started by RE, Oct 18, 2023, 10:24 PM

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RE

I love the way these articles run down a long list of the reasons why Industriaized countries have falling birthrates, with some like Italy producing nearly half the number required for replacement level and a stable population size without immigration.  The implication being that it's a complex problem with many causes, and money alone can't solve it.  The reality is, money can solve it, just not the piddling amount being dished out in tax credits or in subsidzed child care for working mothers.

Every single country can trace its falling birthrate to the same point in history.  The 1960s & 1970s, when women were "Liberated" from their role as Housewife & Mother and "free" to go out into the working world with their husbands and pursue their career ambitions, albeit at a generally lower rate of pay and a glass ceiling to how far up the corporate ladder they could climb until fairly recently, where pay scales have come closer to parity but women still dominate the lower paid jobs and professions.

The fact is that despite TV shows featuring Super Moms who can do it all, run their own law practice, raise a big family, have a hot husband who love them and fucks them silly every night instead of his oldest daughter's best friend, run's marathons and has her own side action boyfriend, her son's best buddy who is Quarterback of the Varsity football team and also fucks her brains out in the back of the minivan she uses to drop the younger siblings off at little league and dance practice is complete fantasy.  Her beautiful suburban McMansion is always spotless, even if she doesn't employ undocumented Nicaraguan maids and a Mexican gardener.  The family sits down to breakfast and dinner together, and her eggs are cooked to perfection just the way each of them likes, and she gets her dinner recipes from Gordon Ramsey videos she watches on her cell phone while eating lunch she prepared foor each kid and hubby before going to bed and getting her brain fucked out again.  Women who can't pull this bullshit off are substandard failures to God and Country, not producing enough cheap labor to buy Teslas with loans they can' afford.

The fact is, statistically speaking, raising a large family with more than 2 kids is incompatible with both parents working, and besides not getting pregnant often enough, is in large part responsible for the divorce rate, which also began climbing to over 50% in the aftermath of 1960s and the social revolution of Women's Liberation.  Women weren';'t liberated at all, they were enslaved along with men in the service of capitalism, and the only way to earn enough money to afford the McMansion and Carz and Hawaii vacations they aspired to was to both work.  They learnd quickly they had neither time or energy to raise more than 1 child, much less 2 or more.  When the bill for college came around 18 years later, the only way to afford it was to take out a second mortgage on the McMansion, or else consign their son or daughter to a decade or more paying off their education before even being able to think about marriage, let alone kids.

Since the 1970s, we've gone through 3 more generations of this, each time getting worse than the generation before.   This is not complicated, and money can solve it.  Just the money needs to be at minimum equal to a full time job, and that just pays for her time.  To afford all the stuff each kid needs, like braces and piano lesson and the travel soccer team to live the Amerikan Dream, the job needs to pay o Doctor's salary too.   t's an economic impossibility, there aren't enough high paying jobs out there for that to happen for any more than the top 1% of wage earners in the country.

This reality can't be admitted though, so we get this non stop stream of bullshit articles telling us how complicated the problem is, and it's really nobody's fault that SS will be bankrupt by 2035.  The latest generation is resigned to this, and they really don't care if they learn to read or add and subtract.  It's a waste of time, they'll be working the same min wage jobs no matter how hrd they study.  They'll never get to retire, they'll have to work until they drop dead.  Except for the 1% of course.  At least until SHTF Day arrives.  then everybody will be in a world of shit.

https://fortune.com/europe/2024/03/11/italian-women-eschewing-motherhood-italy-birth-rate-plunges-europes-lowest/

Italian women are eschewing motherhood as Italy's birth rate plunges to one of Europe's lowest

RE

RE

#31
So now the CCP is trying to encourage Chinese women to return to being barefoot and pregnant, and letting men go work on the Foxconn production line assembling Apple I-phones and computers to feed the family.  Which might work IF there were enough of those jobs for the population of unemployed Chine men, IF those jobs paid enough that a single salary could support more than just themselves, much less a wife and a 1 bedroom apartment stuffed with a brood of rug rats sleeping in the living room, and IF there were enough Chinese women to marry those Chinese men, which there aren't because after decades of selective abortions to eliminate unwanted girl babies in favor of boy babies there are 36M more men than women running around the polluted countryside.  Since none of those conditional statements is true, it's not gong to work.  So, they also want to limit abortions and limit vasectomies to further improve the statistical probability of sex between men & women will result in a live birth 9 months later, which also won't work because they're not interested much in having sex these days.  Fucking isn't nearly as much fun as playing games on the phone and watching porn for a fulfilling sex life.

The only ting so far not on the table seems to be making impregnation obligatory for all girls graduating HS, and return visits to the impregnation clinic obligatory after each birth until the female Chinese Communist Party Member has fulfilled her duty to pop 4 buns out of the oven minimum before being retired as a worker baby factory.  For the CCP with its history of trying to legislate birthrate with the 1 child policy, this isn't that far fetched, but it is slightly harder to make pregnancy obligatory than it is to limit reproduction.  Besides which, even if it was successful, the question of where the money would come from to raise all these new babies into worker bees remains a mystery.

The demographic problem of where they are going to find enough Chinese CNAs and PCAs to take care of all the aging Chinese factory workers whose eyesight has become too poor to do the assembly on the I phones is going t hit here long before the population is cut in half by the end of the century, unless of course old people start dieing off a lot quicker, which seems likely.

Of course, this is not just China's problem, just about every industrialized country has this problem now, so it's just a matter of time before the lack of young workers to support elderly homo saps reaches critical mass.  I don't think it will take until December 31st, 2099 for this to occur.

https://www.newsweek.com/how-china-tackling-population-crisis-1879563

How China Is Tackling a Population Crisis

RE

K-Dog

#32
The country's aging workforce and its "uber-low fertility level" are of particular concern for the future of the country and its financial sustainability, Greenhalgh said, as they might contribute to a potential labor shortage.

One thing all capitalists agree on is the need for a reserve army of labor.  Positive benefits of a smaller population will not be discussed in mainstream media.  Brainwashing on this issued is complete, and all good state puppies will bark down anyone who suggests that there are limits to growth.

Useless eaters can't support their lifestyles of exploitation if limits are paid attention to.

Overpopulation means there is a lot of cake to pass around.  Until there is not.  Concern about the loss of (profit) because an empowered work force is demanding their share of cake makes people like Susan Greenhalgh at the top of the food chain at Harvard say, You want me to jump?


How high do you want me to jump?

All they can envision in their PHD stupidity is endless growth.  Resolving system contradictions leading to prosperity for all is NOT ON THEIR AGENDA. 

Perfection for these hopeless capitalists is in a pie in the sky future which ignores the suffering of the world now.  They are deluded utopians who say there always must be poor people.  It is a feature of their system.  If you do not have poor people, rich people can't be rich is their unconscious mantra. 

A mantra they will never admit to.  Even to themselves.

RE

Nippon was once called the Land of the Rising Sun.  Not anymore.  The Japanese are in the process of committing ethnic Seppuku as they die off at the rate of almost 100 Samurai/hour.

For years the Japanese, possibly the most xenophobic culture on earth, refused any foreign workers.  Now the only thing keeping the country barely functional is immigration.  Who wants to immigrate to a country though who think everyone else on earth is beneath them in cities like Tokyo where the Micro-aoartment has been considered decennt living conditions for young workers since the 1980s?  You wonder why the birthrate is in the basement?  Who's going to bring home a girl to an apartment like this, or worse, what girl would agree to go?  :o



At least the dead ones don't have to pay off their national debt.

https://www.ft.com/content/21b8a049-c752-4450-84de-5052c8632d7c

Japan's native population declines at record rate as births plunge

RE

RE

The Greeks are getting it from both ends, and I'm not talking about sex in this case.  Apparently besides having fewer new Greeks (either resulting from less sex or choosing the wrong hole), they also have an increasing death rate from "healthy" young people due to Heart failure and cancer.  Exactly how they are considered "healthy" with these medical problems I can't say?

The IMF is very worried since this means falling tax revenue will make the remaining Greeks unable to pay their debts, and Elon Musk is concerned he won't have any riders hailing his Robotaxis around the Acropolis.  Bars & Restaurants around the world are concerned because they wonder who will pick the olives for the Martinis and salad dressing?

As we are well aware by now, this is a pan-European problem, along with Japan, China and just about everywhere besides sub-Saharan Africa.  Also at this point like climate change it's basically irreversible, so other than moaning about it, nobody really has any effective solution for the problem.  Besides that though, nobody addresses how the obvious problems that come along with the depopullation are going to be handled?  What will they do when the pension funds all go insolvent?  What will they do when there aren't enough HS graduates to draft as cannon fodder?

The clock is ticking.

https://www.wionews.com/world/greece-prepares-for-population-collapse-amid-rising-deaths-potentially-1st-country-to-face-such-crisis-711619

Greece prepares for 'population collapse' amid rising deaths, potentially 1st country to face such crisis

RE

RE

Ad I am sure Diners are aware although typical J6P is not, projections of this sort made by UN statisticians and demographers are loaded with assumptions that BAU will continue over the next 25 & 75 years.  They assume current rates of decline will continue along in a smooth curve that can be modeled as a mathematical function.  they don't account for "black swan" events like Global Thermonuclear War, global famine or a global pandemic that actually kills a significant number of the people it infects, unlike COVID or flu pandemics with relatively low mortality rates.

They also assume that we'll continue to supply enough energy to the population to maintain these rates through the entire timespan, which is unlikely.  All of which makes any projection that goes more than 10 years ahead is practically worthless.  Maybe the 2050 projections will be in the ballpark without a black swan landing in the next 25 years, but the likelihood we make it to 2100 under 2024 BAU conditions is vanishingly small.

Still, the charts are nice to look at as a "best case" scenario.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-13309391/Mesmerising-charts-worlds-populated-countries-time-Britain-slipped-rankings-20.html

Mesmerising charts show world's most and least populated countries over time - and how Britain has slipped down the rankings and out of the top 20

RE

K-Dog

#36
This from MSN:

Immigration advocates see work permits as Biden's best option

QuotePresident Biden's left flank is pushing for expanded work permits for immigrants living in the country illegally, not just as a humanitarian imperative, but as a political boon ahead of November.

A second class citizen is a humanitarian imperative?  According to Microsoft it is.  And Microsoft should know.  They import thousands of workers and displace Americans in the process.

I should know.  I was in their system.  I worked next to the techies Microsoft flew in.  We had the same kind of badge.  Microsoft has been doing this for decades.  They have imperialism down.  Microsoft has game.

From the article, not much to it.  The article could be in the Idiocracy movie.

QuoteRecent polling shows that two-thirds of voters in swing states support expanding work permits for undocumented immigrants, including long-term workers, farmworkers, Dreamers without DACA and spouses of U.S. citizens,

Did you see the hat trick.  I put it in bold.  What is the truth.  I need my decoder ring.  If I don't decode this, I might want to sign on and go with the flow.  Would I be peaceful and smile?

A minority of Americans are not in favor of second class citizen workers, but if we can include that group in a larger group of long-term workers, farmworkers, Dreamers without DACA and spouses of U.S. citizens which we mostly agree on should be citizens then we can spin our * liberal propaganda the way we wish.

I work with a DACA kid.  He has been here since he was four years old.  His sister married an American and finally got permanent residency after being married for 8 years.  My friend is from Indiana, not Mexico.  The parents still work in a factory somewhere in the Midwest.  They should all be American citizens.

Microsoft drew the circle large enough to get the result they want.  A circle drawn so large that 'humanitarian profit' makes sense.  Propaganda a company that has practiced industrial imperialism using guest workers for decades knows how to write.



* I qualify 'liberal' when I use it.  Liberals are dyed in the wool capitalists who moved humanity a great leap forward when they got rid of hereditary rule.  Unfortunately their ideas have not progressed much since the late 1790's when they chopped the head off aristocracy.  And now billionaires are a new aristocracy.  The negation of the negation.  Elements of the past.  As ideas did not progress, the ideas they replaced now consume those with arrested development as the imperfections of liberalism become apparent.  Desperation makes a horrible past seem romantic the imitation animal.

RE

Asians are leading the depopulation race by a substantial margin.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/east-asias-coming-population-collapse

East Asia's Coming Population Collapse

RE

RE

"Since 2008 until today we have lost around 200,000 newborns," she said. "Two-thirds of them are due to the fact that potential parents are missing. That's because of the decline in births that dates back to 30 years ago."

In 2023 alone the government allocated around 1 billion euros for measures aimed at helping women cope with motherhood and work.

But Ardiano Bordingnon, president of the National Forum of Families, believes this is not enough, and that an EU intervention is required.


Exactly how are they supposed to "intervene"?  Pass a law that EU women have to get pregnant or pay a fine?  What?

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/05/10/italys-falling-birth-rate-is-a-crisis-thats-only-getting-worse

Italy's falling birth rate is a crisis that's only getting worse

RE

RE

The demographic breakdown I would like to know with this poll is not between men vs women's or old vs young opinions, but on rich people versus poor people.  Just based on the stories in the newz, my impression is this "problem" bothers Rich people a whole lot more than it does Poor people.  Basicall they're worried about where all the wage slaves will come from, or consumers or who will pay for their pensions.  The vast majority of people who actually have or do not have kids simply choose one or the other based on their own personal situation.  People aren't going to have kids because the society needs kids.  Its not their responsibility to make sure the grand scheme of civilization continues growing.

Despite the fact this situation is all the MSM writes about population these days, there are still a few people who realize the planet is overpppulated with homo sap meat packages.  Also that among all the possible options for population reduction, having fewer children born is the best we can do on a moral level.  The only other option is for people to die faster.  Socially if old people died younger that would be better, but generally it's considered immoral to have people die younger.  Withholding expensive medical care that keeps meat packages ticking is definitely considere imoral, along with keeping sick infants alive.  Extending the human lifespan and reducing child mortality have long been considered morally good and worthwhile goals.  The fact is, both are proximal reasons we are so far into overshoot now.


After that though, the choices get even more morally problematic, because they involve intentionally killing people.  Wars do that one, so does starving people by making food unaffordable.  No morally upright person is in favor of more war or starving people.

Of course, we have barely scratched the surface so far and this will just be getting worse by the year.  So you're gonna keep hearing about it, even though you're sick of it already.

https://www.newsweek.com/us-birth-rate-decline-opinion-poll-1900297

Americans Shrug Over Falling Birthrate

RE

RE

Given all the stories over the last few years regarding the tsunami of immigrants flowing into the EU, I'm a little surprised it's not enough to even keep up with the drop in local births.  It's definitely going to wreak havoc on their social welfare and retirement programs.

Good charts and overview in this article.

https://www.ft.com/content/71a515d9-e473-48b6-a6a0-bf839d1bb41e

Has Europe already reached its demographic tipping point?

RE

K-Dog

#41
A planet in overshoot rushing into a future of doom, and we have articles like this:

Italy's falling birth rate is a crisis that's only getting worse.

This is criminal ignorance.  A part of me wants very bad things to happen to people who promote this bullshit. 

Does that make me evil?  No actually it does the opposite.  It shows a thirst for justice.  Criminal ignorance is not without consequence.

RE

The ignorance is the result of conditioning.  People have been conditioned to expect perpetual growth for so long, they can't grasp this is nature's way of correcting the problem.  As corrective measures go, it's somewhat better than pandemics, famine and war, but all people see is that it threatens their retirement plans.  lol.

RE

K-Dog

A temporary problem anyhoo.  Fascist states know what to do.

Give it a little time.  And make sure condom vending machines are stocked with an 'approved' brand.

As in blessed by the Pope, holie.


K-Dog

#44
Quote from: RE on May 24, 2024, 12:39 PMThe ignorance is the result of conditioning.  People have been conditioned to expect perpetual growth for so long, they can't grasp this is nature's way of correcting the problem.  As corrective measures go, it's somewhat better than pandemics, famine and war, but all people see is that it threatens their retirement plans.  lol.

RE

Nature's way of correcting the problem.  But people are out of touch with nature.



Cities put nature in museums.  COVID showed how good museums are at preserving things.  They close down when the fat goes, and the land gets lean. 

Now out of touch with nature, the herd has lost its way.  Fundamental knowledge about how the world works is lost.