[monsta666]

A better question is whether China will be able to rule all of SE Asia, plus Australia.  Competitors for running the show in that region would be Oz, Japan and South Korea, because it's unlikely China itself will hold together as a single political unit.  Like the FSoA, I can see China breaking up into regional fiefdoms.

The biggest variable will be the speed of dieoff and who suffers an agricultural failure first.  If China sees a failure of their rice crop first, that will create havoc there and war of course.  Impossible to know what will emerge from such a war.

RE

In terms of food vulnerability, I believe the region under the most threat are the countries within the South Asia subcontinent. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh those kinda countries are already on the edge with food availability and their farmers are struggling to make ends meet.

If you consider that the adverse effects of climate change will likely be more pronounced in this area of the world then this marks South Asia as a potential red zone already. However, it does not stop there as you also need to think of the impending energy/cost of living crisis. Add climate change to an energy crisis and then you can see how things have the real potential to get really bad really quickly. If things kick off in Asia, then this region will face the problems first. Also worth mentioning that South Asia houses close to two billion people so you're going to have a lot of displaced people fleeing to the surrounding countries.

[K-Dog]

Like the FSoA, I can see China breaking up into regional fiefdoms.

Breaking along political lines in the FSOA is next to impossible.  All communications are controlled and this prevents the growth of any new movements.  What is happening here right now makes that case.  If something like a Trump takes over, that does NOT count as a revolution.  All that would be is a change of ownership.

Some sort of breakup along administrative lines would fragment the country when one district does something the management of another district does not like.  But to get to an administration phase, martial law must be declared to set up administrative districts.

Martial Law => Administrative districts => Breakup => New kingdoms.

Then the average Joe will be able to die for king and country. 

Then the history of medieval Europe becomes contemporary American history.  Eventually complete with horses serfs, royalty, and the right of first night.

All this is happening while population is dying to medieval population densities.

[RE]

Like the FSoA, I can see China breaking up into regional fiefdoms.

Breaking along political lines in the FSOA is next to impossible.  All communications are controlled and this prevents the growth of any new movements.  What is happening here right now makes that case.  If something like a Trump takes over, that does NOT count as a revolution.  All that would be is a change of ownership.

You're mistaking how such a breakup would occur, it's not from an external movement, it's from failure of the basic systems holding the society together.  It's not individual states seceeding, it's a general breakdown all over and a descent into some level of anarchy.  AFTER this, groups of people come together for mutual support and protection.  Gangs form, townsform militias, and these groups form alliances and trade resources with each other and gradually a regional structure large enough to have enough resources to self support stabilizes.

Think of Europe after the collapse of the Roman Empire.  It broke up into lots of individual tribes, which over time formed fifedoms with chiefs and warlords, who fought and made alliances and eventually you came up with all these states with Kings like France and Germany and Poland etc.  They were basically self supportng regions, but each always competing with the other at the borders for  more territory.

The Empire collapse was of course followed by a large population drop before this reassembly took place.  That will happen this time also.

Note:  We said the same thing after the first paragraph.  I should have read further before responding. lol

RE

[K-Dog]

it's not from an external movement

All communications are controlled and this prevents the growth of any new movements says no external movements.

it's from failure of the basic systems holding the society together.  It's not individual states seceding, it's a general breakdown all over and a descent into some level of anarchy.

Some sort of breakup along administrative lines would fragment the country when one district does something the management of another district does not like.  This is failure of basic systems.

AFTER this, groups of people come together for mutual support and protection.

No, these are nothing like pioneers.  They have no skills to provide for their basic needs.  Everyone is beholden to the ruling authority for food.  Video games have not prepared anyone to grow food.