[K-Dog]

It seems to me you feel like an ant walking across a pick-nick tablecloth.  You are in the middle of the table, and as far as your two ant-eyes can see the tablecloth goes on forever.  No cliff at the edge to fall from.

America depends on cheap transportation, and electric vehicles are not cheap.  If America's car fleet goes fully electric we need 30% more electricity.  Can we do that and have A.I..  I do not think so.  Drill baby drill won't do it, and even if it could; oh yeah, there is that climate thing.  Increased electrification is showing to be a problem.

The edge of the table is the Seneca cliff, where everything goes to shit.  By some cherry-picked measures food cost is up over 200% in three years.  The cliff approaches.

If all you do is look at Hubbert's Peak and debate if and when peak oil happens you really do not understand the situation.  Reality does not match the pretty textbook graph, but the takeaway is there is an actual peak.  And regardless how convoluted the peak is, there is a peak followed by a decline in production.  Where life as we know it falls apart.

By concentrating on the shape of the peak you deny the table has an edge.

* Drill baby drill is showing reduced 'oil' cost on the graph.  Enjoy that while it lasts.  Like a person with a credit card out of control, our nation will reckon with consequences from this short term fix.

[TDoS]

America depends on cheap transportation, and electric vehicles are not cheap.

My brand new 2025 EV cost 58% of your heat pump. Neither was cheap....but when new vehicles cost less than HEAT PUMPS by that much? Folks don't get to pretend they are unaffordable. Of course, high net worth individuals such as you and I have different perspectives of what is "not cheap" ...or not....compared to those lacking our financial advantage.

If America's car fleet goes fully electric we need 30% more electricity.  Can we do that and have A.I..  I do not think so.  Drill baby drill won't do it, and even if it could; oh yeah, there is that climate thing.  Increased electrification is showing to be a problem.

Just throw all of this, and oversumption of everything else by gluttonous Americans into one big pile and I agree with you.

Good thing Americans haven't forgotten to build nukes I guess, and SOMEONE sooner or later is going to get the fusion thing going.

Do you know that Catton listed things humans were able to do, to change their fortunes in the past in his book "Overshoot"? In that book, relatively early he has a chart, listing the things humans have done along the way to be more than clever monkeys.

I've got a digital copy, I recommend folks who don't have one get one, and check it out. And then we can discuss what will stop humans from adding another evolution of technological change to that list. Or maybe even two?

If all you do is look at Hubbert's Peak and debate if and when peak oil happens you really do not understand the situation.

I am a technical expert first, so of course being able to solve peak oil was step one. If only to insert that modeling effort into those of others. So that together we both will then understand the situation, it is called collaboration among scientists with common interests and different specialties. We are better together than alone.

So of course I pay attention to the situation, not just my part of it, but theirs as well.

Do you have any idea how much money the Sloan Foundation dishes out to these kinds of multi-disiplianry efforts to answer qustions? A bunch. Ever seen resilience.org talk about the size of their project with them? And if not, why do you think not?

Reality does not match the pretty textbook graph, but the takeaway is there is an actual peak.

Yes. Indeed. So does everyone else who can check the EIA International Energy statistics for global oil production and discover....lookee there! 2018 global peak oil.

Any thoughts on why it has gone so unnoticed for so long? If indeed it is more important than some of the others in the past?

[K-Dog]

PEAKOIL.COM 2026-03-13

Trumps Inexcusable Unpreparedness for the Iranian Oil Crisis

Donald Trump, having plunged the country into a potentially disastrous war, with no clear rationale or exit plan, is flailing around for ways to mitigate its economic consequences.

 

'You won't have to go to Bangladesh to see who suffers."

This Trump will not get out of.  Teflon Trump has done himself in.  Trump in a single heartbeat has enraged the rest of the world.  The cost of being an American is about to double and it was not all that cheap to begin with.  Both domestically and internationally Trump has cooked his own goose.

Trump has always admired Mussolini.  Benito Mussolini and his mistress, Claretta Petacci, were executed by Italian partisans on April 28 in the village of Giulino di Mezzegra.  Their bodies were loaded into a van and driven to Milan, arriving in the early hours of the next morning.  The bodies were dumped in the square where the Nazis had executed 15 partisans a year prior. A massive, angry crowd gathered.  The bodies were kicked, beaten, spat upon, and shot multiple times.  To stop the crowd from completely obliterating the remains and to ensure everyone could see that the Dictator was truly dead, the bodies were hoisted upside down from the girder of a Standard Oil gas station. 

History will repeat. 

[RE]

Yanis Varoufakis says that even if the war in Iran ends soon, which it likely will not , the economic consequences will be devastating and prolonged.

Yanis is BACK! lol.  I wonder if we'll hear from Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini also?

The possibility of Israel going NUKE is definitely  scary.  Actually, I could see Trumpolini himself ordering a Nuke strike.

Far as the economic consequences go, I think it will take until May for that to really kick in here.  It's not gonna get better quick though even if the bombing stops 2moro.

RE

[K-Dog]

Yanis has never been gone.  On youtube he is a feature.  If Trumpolini orders a nuke strike I hope one of the Marines standing next to him wearing the white gloves grows a brain.

What happens to capitalism when it can't deal with it with a crisis of its own making when the capitalist class lose control.  They pull levers and they don't work anymore, like hapless pilots in  the cockpit.  Suddenly the levers don't respond to their pulling and pushing.  Fascism is the go-to ideology and the go-to, practices which allow them to remain in power. The fascists have always been particularly useful to the ruling class. Every time the ruling class made a mess of it, and could not contain the crisis of its own making.

What you saw in Minneapolis, the murder of uh American citizens, what you saw with ICE, uh turning into the stormtroopers of Donald Trump from the day he moved into the White House for the second time.

That was happening while he was winning.  So imagine what was going to happen when he was losing.

[RE]

 

 

Looks like the real Peak Oil fun is getting underway for all the oil importing countries.  Oil exporters have a bit of an advantage here, but of course everything is so interconnected the problems won't be limited to the importers.  We're on the way back to the Stone Age!

RE

[K-Dog]

 

1915 Dardanelles Campaign

In the Dardanelles, the British and French believed they could force the strait with naval power alone. They were stymied by a "layered defense": mines blocked the water, and mobile howitzers on cliffs prevented minesweepers from eliminating mines.

After failing to force the passage, the Allies were forced into an "ignominious" withdrawal in 1916 after suffering 250,000 casualties.

                                                                                                               

Feature	1915 Dardanelles	2026 Hormuz/Iran
Tactical Obstacle	Mines & Cliff-top Howitzers	Smart Mines & Anti-Ship Missiles
Strategic Goal	Knock Ottoman Empire out of WWI	Neutralize Iranian Nuclear/Military Power
Outcome	High casualties, eventual withdrawal	Ongoing; Oil $120+; Global supply shock

This is Iranian state news.



It is hard for me to find information about what is going on in Iranian Society.  I suspect they are galvanized like Americans were after Pearl Harbor.

Again an empire attacked.  And America has a Hirohito.

From Gibbon :

"The irresolute emperor, instead of breaking through the toils of the enemy, expected his fate with patient resignation; and accepted the humiliating conditions of peace, which it was no longer in his power to refuse.

The five provinces beyond the Tigris... were restored to the Persian monarchy. He acquired, by a single article, the impregnable city of Nisibis; which had sustained, in three successive sieges, the effort of his arms...

The spirit of the Romans was subdued by the edge of famine rather than by the sword of the Barbarians."

 

 

[K-Dog]

[K-Dog]

 

[RE]

Iranian forces strike US military bases across the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain in coordinated missile and drone operations.

And not a SINGLE Amerikan grunt was killed!  They missed everybody!  Amazing!

RE

[K-Dog]

 

Chucklehead Trump escalates.  Trump did what BIbi told him to do, and Trump let Bibi bomb gas facilities in Iran.

So Iran responds tit for tat.  No surprise, and Iran's leaders would be fools not to respond in kind.  Trump means them no love and Trump is demented.  If you give Trump anything he only takes more.  Taking more than he should is how this emotional vampire gets his self-esteem.  Trump is toxic and is killing people the way a small child might kill a bug.  To make himself feel big.  Because inside he is a very tiny man.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards issued a stark warning to neighboring Gulf nations. Their oil and gas industries would be "completely destroyed" if Israel or the United States conduct any further attacks against Iranian energy infrastructure.

The Sampson Option is why no fool self-serving American president ever was this stupid before.

 

Trump murders and sacrifices the prosperity and blood of America and you let him.

That is what the Germans did in WWII.

[RE]

On the positive side, we have moved forward the date where industrial civilization will be no more.

RE

[K-Dog]

 

[monsta666]

Just remember the Western media is downplaying the success of Iran's attacks on middle-east infrastructure as it goes against the narrative that Iran has been crippled by the barrage of American/Israel airstrikes.

What I also gather is the UAE government is actively suppressing any information on the damage taking place in their country. It is not a stretch to assume other rich Arab states are following the same protocol as they wish to protect their image of being a safe haven country. All this means is it is quite likely the reality on the ground is worse than what the media is portraying as the Western and Arab media have a vested interest in suppressing coverage of Iran's military successes.

The big question is how long this conflict will last and what impact this will have on Trump's presidency.

[K-Dog]

It goes against the narrative that Iran has been crippled by the barrage of American/Israel airstrikes.

Anything that goes against their narrative of total annihilation is an admission of defeat because the 'regime' is still in power and the straight is closed.  Defeat will not be admitted.  Trump always blames someone else.  But since there is nobody else to blame, Trump has to frame what has happened so far as a smoking awesome victory or man up.  Trump manning up to anything is like asking for rain on a sunny day.  And that also goes for anyone bewitched by his greatness.  Doubling down is Trumps only viable survival strategy.  Trump is going to double down our asses into a nuclear winter.

As RE has pointed out.  Multiple airstrikes on bases yesterday, and America loses no soldiers.  It is hard to believe.  Very hard to believe.  Yet there are many true believers.