[TDoS]

To deny collapse means denying human agency.

To deny collapse when it doesn't meet the definition is normal, expected, and called for.

You can no more call it something else and be taken seriously than if you multiply volts times amps and get Pi.

Collapse in the Diner is always intimately connected to human stupidity.

The Diner, and people in general, can make up its own definition, obviously. Just like I can say that Pi=2.
Applying relative definitions to things though makes stuff messy.

Collapse which could have, and should have, and would have been avoided if adults were in charge is the only collapse that is interesting.

I can agree with that. Species collapse on purpose and possible BECAUSE of the species themselves. Global thermonuclear war comes to mind. Climate change as well. But neither of those have triggered one yet, but they could most assuredly cause the required population reduction.

Acts of god are boring random and tragic.

And expected. But how can human induced collapse NOT be tragic as well? We don't own any secrets to the Universe that say us clever monkeys are immune for being stupid, tragic, ignorant, self centered and self destructive in  general. I would venture that humans are so flipping stupid they fall for nonsense, science denying hogwash that sounds good more often than they do scientific fact. Religion being a GREAT example, and peak oil being a smaller and more recent version.

Things won't get interesting enough for TDOS until there is mass death.  But that is like only reading the end of a story.

Collapse isn't collapse without poulation decline. Sorry. But all KINDS of horrible things can happen without population decline/collapse. No one is going to call the Holodomor a good thing, or Pol Pot's stunts, or Mao's Great Chinese famine, etc etc.

Collapse is certainly collapse. It just hasn't happened yet. But there is always hope in the corner of the internet waiting with baited breath. The peak oilers have moved on, currently climate change has my vote for highest probability, with a more thorough cleansing GRB waiting in the wings, but timing unknown. 

[RE]

APNEWS.COM 2026-08-17

Belgian wildfire approaches Germany as Greece probes deadly blaze

A forest ranger from the region told The Associated Press that the blaze could continue for months underground because of the peaty soil.  “What we see here is that the grassland has burned and the fire has gone into the soil to a certain depth, into the peat, and it is still burning,” said Yves Pieper. “It can go down very, very low in the peat layer.”

Spain, France, Germany, Greece, Belgium... basically the whole continent is burning up.  For the Deniers who say "we've always had forest fires", I can categorically state that in the 7 decades I have been around, there has never been a summer where the entire European continent had wildfires burning.

Similarly, since the Hoover Dam was built during thee Great Depression, Lake Mead never went so low it was within 150 feet of Dead Pool level.  If it doesn't drop below this season, next year it's basically guaranteed.  What isn't mentioned is that besides Hoover, there are many other smaller dams and hydro plants that are in similar state.  Some of the lost power may be replaced by increased thermal generation, but that just means still more CO2 being pumped into the atmosphere.  The water for agriculture also can't be replaced.

It's not Collapse though, right? 🙄  Maybe by 2032.



RE

[RE]

 

Slow Cooking.

RE

[TDoS]

It's not Collapse though, right? 🙄  Maybe by 2032.

Certainly with events like this kicking in sooner rather than later, and coming in waves instead of one here or there, 6 years is at least a possibility. But probably a low one.

[RE]

We'll get there. Tic Toc.

RE

[K-Dog]

Intensifies global weather patterns, causing heavier storms, floods, and droughts.

Seems to me a worldwide famine could be in the works.

[TDoS]

We'll get there. Tic Toc.

RE

We've been "getting there" since you discovered the topic. Sometime in the last century it became of interest right? Been gretting there....a LONG time now...and.....well...next.....<week-month-year-decade-centennial> maybe?

I would venture that after decades now, numberous website involvements (which themselves "got there" WAY before much of anything else cool) that it must be irritating to still be waiting. So the substitution of just political type stuff would make sense because at least it is "happening" as it were. Plus slow motion CO2 changes and stuff.

[TDoS]

Intensifies global weather patterns, causing heavier storms, floods, and droughts.

Seems to me a worldwide famine could be in the works.

You never know! Even since the Mayan Calendar thing fizzled out though I haven't been holding my breath.

[K-Dog]

Intensifies global weather patterns, causing heavier storms, floods, and droughts.

Seems to me a worldwide famine could be in the works.

You never know! Even since the Mayan Calendar thing fizzled out though I haven't been holding my breath.

Intensive maize agriculture, with extensive deforestation for fuel and plaster production, with unchecked population growth pushed the fragile tropical ecosystem past carrying capacity  Multi-decade ninth century droughts made crop yields plummet.  Leading to social problems.  Ecological and economic collapse triggered political fragmentation, widespread famine, and destructive warfare that emptied the major cities of millions of inhabitants. Vacant and untended, once-grand stone plazas and monumental buildings were overgrown by tropical vegetation, the jungle claimed it all.

Their calendar at the end of the day was not worth shit.

[RE]

So the substitution of just political type stuff would make sense because at least it is "happening" as it were.

The Political, Sociological & Economic aspects of Collapse are the most interesting part.  That's what has made the last 20 years so entertaining.

RE

[TDoS]

Their calendar at the end of the day was not worth shit.

With the enthusiasts on one of RE's other websites the Mayan Calendar, Planet X, Yellowstone going boom, the coming of peak oil that didn't, all sorts of interesting things were all the rage. I found it all fascinating.

[K-Dog]

Their calendar at the end of the day was not worth shit.

With the enthusiasts on one of RE's other websites the Mayan Calendar, Planet X, Yellowstone going boom, the coming of peak oil that didn't, all sorts of interesting things were all the rage. I found it all fascinating.

Lots of fascinating things happen at the end of empires.

[TDoS]

Their calendar at the end of the day was not worth shit.

With the enthusiasts on one of RE's other websites the Mayan Calendar, Planet X, Yellowstone going boom, the coming of peak oil that didn't, all sorts of interesting things were all the rage. I found it all fascinating.

Lots of fascinating things happen at the end of empires.

Planet X and Yellowstone going boom fascinating the nutter contingent of doom is a ....POLITCAL thing?

[RE]

It's an entertainment thing.

Nothing nutter about Yellowstone.  Geological events causing collapse are well established phenomenon.

Planet X did not receive much attention.

RE

[TDoS]

It's an entertainment thing.

Nothing nutter about Yellowstone.  Geological events causing collapse are well established phenomenon.

Indeed. Quite true as a matter of geologic fact, yes (but I'd lead with the Siberian Traps if you want real doom, Yellowstone is nothing compared to that). But you didn't lead with it on any of your blogs, or peakoil.com, or here. The "nutter" part tends to revolve around folks hearing it somewhere, deciding 10 seconds later it must be true, and then trumpeting it from one rooftop or another as fact. And for good measure kicking in some degree of 'IMMINENT!", because someone online told them so. The psychology of THAT process...and then reveling in having this "secret" that others just can't understand or see.....that is alien to me, and fascinating because of it.

Planet X did not receive much attention.
RE

Maybe not on your blogs, but it was out there, and you had at least one enthusiast on one of your blogs. The Mayan calendar was certainly out there. While everyone around the office knew my interest, debunking and professional work related to peak oil, on the scheduling calendar for the group we had the Mayan Calendar marked on a big calendar, and someone drew like a mushroom cloud image on it and words "THE END" and some pithy comment about work being canceled the next day or some such.

Scientists besides me certainly had a sense of humour on what can be found on the internet.

Got to go, a presentation to finish and some traveling, presenting, educating pofessional organizations next week, nothing special, just the usual sciencey stuff.