Quote from: TDoS on Jun 03, 2024, 09:47 AMI am not the only one familiar with this topic. And how it was entertaining for awhile, and reasons why it faded away for more interesting doom scenarios.

It would be refreshing if you spent half as much time commenting on the more interesting doom scenarios as you do rehashing Peak Oil commentary that is so old and tired it has mold growing.

QuoteJust as you have an idea on how you measure human intelligience (you tend to like people who know and can use the English language inside and out) I also have the same capability. And obviously it isn't just how well some knows English.

It's helpful if I can understand what someone is talking about to evaluate their intelligence, but it's not the only criteria.  I can't understand what dolphins squeak about, but I can tell they're brighter than tuna.  Behavior is a good indicator.  However, comparing human intelligence to that of other species is pretty tough, since besides the language constraints there are behavioral differences, environmental  differences and input/output limitations that make comparisons impossible.  Even though we know dolphins can use sonar to determine distances, we don't know how or if they use math to do it, for instance.  So saying some species are not as stupid as homo sap is anthropomorphizing them just as much as saying nature is cruel does so.  Your attributing a human quality of intelligence to other species.  It' not a provable assertion, and it's also irrelevant.

RE

Quote from: RE on Jun 03, 2024, 11:28 AM

Quote from: TDoS on Jun 03, 2024, 09:47 AMI am not the only one familiar with this topic. And how it was entertaining for awhile, and reasons why it faded away for more interesting doom scenarios.

It would be refreshing if you spent half as much time commenting on the more interesting doom scenarios as you do rehashing Peak Oil commentary that is so old and tired it has mold growing.

Fine. I will resist the urge to mention what a poor excuse for doom any of the past peak oils were.

So, other good doom scenarios tend to run towards some of those mentioned by Tony certainly. I am partial to gradual doom, climate change. Less so "here comes WWIII!!" doom. Economics is always a good local problem, with lower probability of being full scale take down the world issue. Saw an attempt in 2008, it was ugly as economic downturns are, but a doom? Eh. Pandemics? Have low probability potential, but there is always hope and anti-Fauchi angles.

Cosmic collisions and GRB's, lower probability but always good for some conversation, and far cooler than run of the mill "humans be stupid" stuff.

Quote from: REYour attributing a human quality of intelligence to other species.  It' not a provable assertion, and it's also irrelevant.
RE

Lots of things aren't provable. So I'll go with humans being less intelligent than some species or another because humans have the ability to KNOW better....and do the stupid shit anyway.

Take two species, one knows better, one doesn't. The ones that know better do stupid shit regardless and die off. The others that don't know better, naturally fit within their world and system and can do it as long as the system endures. Naturally smarter because they lack the cleverness that dooms the stupid bipeds who can't see past their next dig it up, cut it down, burn it exercise.

T-Rex was the apex predator for millions of years. Humans and all their smartness will be lucky to break 2 orders of magnitude LESS time than that.

I sense a tendency to elevate humans beyond being a species. "Intelligence" was defined by humans so has no intrinsic meaning. All species act like species. Some appear cleverer than others, to our eyes (partly because we think we're rational and so can set arbitrary bars for what is intelligent), but all would enter overshoot if they had our abilities, or if they are presented with an abundance of resources that they could access (perhaps by some natural environmental disaster for other species). Even in declaring rationality, we use our definition of it (there are no other definitions). We are rational because we are. I don't believe any of it.

Quote from: TDoS on Jun 03, 2024, 08:34 PMSo I'll go with humans being less intelligent than some species or another because humans have the ability to KNOW better....and do the stupid shit anyway.

SOME homo saps have the ability to know better, all do not.  I'm sure you're familiar with the concept in chemistry of a "rate determining step".  For those of you not familiar with this idea, it basically states that in a multi-step reaction, the speed of the reaction is governed by the speed of the slowest individual step.  When one step moves very slowly compared to all the rest, you can ignore all the fast ones because the overall rate at which the total reaction proceeds to completion is governed by the slowest step.

With society, you have individual intelligence, which can be amazingly brilliant in some people.  Collective intelligence though is only as good as the stupidest guys in the room.  The stupidity of a HUGE percentage of the population is breathtaking.  I give the example here of Terence Howard, the actor from the 1st Iron Man movie who played Tony Stark's best friend.  He was fired from this role, likely because he's a flaming idiot, which the casting director didn't pick up on when he was given the role.  It later probably surfaced because Terence has some thoroughly whack-a-doodle theories about math & physics and probably spouted off about them on set.  He's recently got a lot of publicity because Joe Rogan had him on his show to spout off on these ideas.  Here's a brief debunking of his idiocy.


The thing is, Joe Rogan's audience IS stupid enough to eat this shit up.  Just as MAGA crowds are stupid enough to eat up the shit that Donald #VonShitzinPants defecates from his mouth every day.  Collectively, Homo Saps are only as intelligent as the low grade morons who buy this drivel.  It doesn't matter how brilliant all of us geniuses who populate this website are  , the intelligence rate determining step is Joe Rogan's audience, not ours.

Far as T Rex long duration as Apex predator, it wasn't adaptable to many different environments or grow its own food supply.  I'd bet it followed the same Predator-Prey cycle as Lions do, which are Apex predators in their particular ecosystem.  When weather is good and the antelope the lions eat multiply, lions start multiplying and eat up the excess antelope.  Once they eat so many they're hard to find, lions die off from starvation until the next time the weather is good and the antelope breed up again.  Long as the overall climate doesn't change much, stable ecosystems like this persist for a long time. Everything is in balance, so it's sustainable.

Homo Saps lived this way during the H-G period,  which lasted from the emergence of the species ~300K years ago until the development of agriculture ~15,000 years ago.  If you include earlier versions ofthe genus Homo, we go back millions of years too.  Our "stupidity" in population overshoot is the paradoxcal result of our intelligence in being smart enough to develop metallurgy which allowed us to produce tools for doing large scale agricultural production of food.  The same metallurgical acumen gave Ag societies a big advantage over the H-Gs, who they proceeded to kill off over the last 15K years, leaving only the unsustainable ag version around.

Not satisfied with the speed at which we were turning the planet into desert just with ag, 275 years ago the geniuses of the era came up with the Steam Engine and numerous other inventions which made it possible to expand population even faster to even more relatively inhospitable places.  Other geniuses of the era like Mathus pointed out that if it continued we'd ultimately overrun the planet, but as a society these folks were ignored because the collective intelligence drew the conclusion steam engines are great, love those steamships and railroads, let's build more and better!

Sometime in the 1950s a few geniuses pointed out that so much of this burning was going on it was going to have some very nasty blowback in a few decades, but other geniuses told the vast majority of Joe Rogan viewers not to worry about this because 1st climate change wasn't real, then later that renewables could substitute.  Since this is what Joe Rogan viewers wanted to hear because it meant they could keep Happy Motoring, nobody listened to the geniuses here and other websites that told them, no, sorry, that dog won't hunt.  Our message is not as appealing to the collective intelligence as the message they get from Billionaires who tell them they should breed more kids to buy more Teslas.  Despite this message however, the simple fact most people can't afford to have more than 1 kid without a huge sacrifice to their own personal standard of living, they are choosing not to have the kids regardless of what Billionaires, their Church or Da Goobermint tells them.  In this case, Collective Intelligence is actually proving smarter than geniuses like Elon Musk.

Anyhow, as a species we're no smarter or stupider than other species, we operate within the same constraints of a finite planet and like all species we exploit the environment until the environment pushes back in one way or another.  No species voluntarily stops reproducing, it only happens if something in the environment changed enough to make reproduction a less appealing choice.  What changed?  Most significantly for homo saps in the industrialized countries, women had to go into the workforce of capitalism and leave the role of full time homemaker and baby factory.  It was painted as a "choice" and "Women's Liberation" by geniuses in the field of sociology, but appealed to women tired of the subservient role and being dependent on men.  I think most of those women still haven't grasped they just traded one form of slavery for another one.  In any case, it is slowing down the overshoot problem, but as noted by many comes with its own set of demographic problems.

The bottom line is regardless of the intelligence of ouur species, we will have a large population knockdown, the only questions are how soon before it really takes off, how fast will it be and what percentage of global population will be wipe out before it stabilizes?   There are too many variables to do any better than a WAG on this.  A blight of one of the major monooculture crops like corn, soybeans or rice could bring on a global version of the Irish Potato Famine in any given year.  A collapse of the Larsen Ice sheet or Greenland ice sheet could raise sea levels 3m in a single year. A collapse in the currency markets could slow global trade to a crawl.  The border crisis and northward migration from Africa-->Europe or SA-->NA could grow by a order of magnitude in 2 or 3 years.  Or you may just have slower deterioration on many fronts over the next decade.  All we can do is keep observing the progress until something pops up that will set off a cascade failure.  It could be as small as a Food Vendor setting himself on fire, or the assassination of a major political figure.  At some point on the timeline though, it will blow.  Everybody Knows.

Everybody knows it's coming apart
Take one last look at this Sacred Heart
Before it blows
Everybody knows


RE

QuoteFar as T Rex long duration as Apex predator,

Will you last six months?  No you will not.  Pick any random old time, likely it will be a critter you never heard of who will have you for lunch.

In the absense of man nature grows megafauna.  But dinos with sharp teeth in the 40-200 lb range were far more common than the big as a tank monsters like T-Rex.  One of them would be more likely to get you.

A Sabine Hossenfelder video makes it into the Diner.

It had to happen someday.

The video below explains Joe Rogan's audience.  If you compared the general genetic quality of the American population of 1880 to the quality of American DNA today there will be differences.  Medical care to keep the weak breeding has been around for a hundred years.  That is a few generations.  Sugar which was once as hard to find in the natural environment as gold has been around all that time.  Sugar became cheap, and is growing people like weeds.  Dickweeds to be exact.

New Study Reveals Sharp Decline in American IQ Scores as the "Reverse Flynn Effect" Takes Center Stage

The Reverse Flynn effect is more environmentally caused, and not due to hard science reasons I describe above.  Reasons I am sure everyone will prefer to be in denial of.

Quote from: Tonyprep on Jun 03, 2024, 10:03 PMI sense a tendency to elevate humans beyond being a species. "Intelligence" was defined by humans so has no intrinsic meaning. All species act like species. Some appear cleverer than others, to our eyes (partly because we think we're rational and so can set arbitrary bars for what is intelligent), but all would enter overshoot if they had our abilities, or if they are presented with an abundance of resources that they could access (perhaps by some natural environmental disaster for other species). Even in declaring rationality, we use our definition of it (there are no other definitions). We are rational because we are. I don't believe any of it.

I agree with you.  We are legends in our own mind.

However, there is this thing called science and something called ancient wisdom.  (Not to be confused with ancient knowledge.)  Some people seem more gifted than others in some way which lets them appreciate this thing called science and that thing called ancient wisdom more than others do.  In a way I won't bother defining.

The pic I posted which shows I understand what you say, suggests something else.

The free will debate is silly.  We do not have free will.  Robert Sapolsky and I are on the same page about that. 

But: Chaos theory shows the solution space of decisions humans can choose to make is huge.  The predator prey model is only predictable when coefficients in the model are below thresholds.  Above which population behavior becomes chaotic.  The consequence of chaos theory on human thought gives us essentially free will within our deterministic solution space.  Free will within limits.

Combine human psudo-random deterministic behavior with consciousness (I assume you have it, I know I do.)  Let you hand draw itself.  Hands drawing themselves is the stoic thing to do.  Human and natural.  That is pretty close to being free to me.

How much your hand draws itself is up to you.  Some hands are better than others at this.  Your mileage will vary, and it matters where you start.


The solution space sets you free.  =>

Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 04, 2024, 10:31 AMHop into a time machine and go back to any healthy biome older than 10,000 years.  Humans were not around to extinct the megafauna back then.  The only thing that will go into the time machine with you is one set of clothes and one Buck knife.

Among the mega-fauna Homo Saps are credited with extinctifying are the Wooly Mammoth, the Sabre Tooth Tiger, the Cave Lion and Cave Bear and ancient Bison, 7.5' tall at the shoulder weighiing about 3500 lbs.  All accomplished before we had metal knives, they did it with stone and bone tipped spears, or more often by pack hunting and driving them into traps.  Big but not real smart or fast animals in general.

Would a modern homo sap be successful at this game?  Unlikely except for a small number of Cody Lunden types, and not alone, you get to travel back with a typical H-G hunting party of 6-12 healthy adult males.  We did have the necessary qualities to take over as Apex predator from these animals.  Your ideal time traveling hunting party would need training in making stone tools, making traps and practicing pack hunting strategy prior to getting in the time machine.  Like the Terminator, you get sent back naked with no weapons.  For the test subjects, I'd probably select from NFL players and trackers from African or Native American tribes.

Would we have been as successful against Dinosaurs, some of which were bigger?  Unless somebody builds a IRL Jurassic Park we'll never know for sure.  I suspect we would have by out-competing them for prey and by eliminating their environment.

RE

Quote from: Tonyprep on Jun 03, 2024, 10:03 PMI sense a tendency to elevate humans beyond being a species.

By who? The silly humans who think they have it all figured out and are busy wrecking the joint..and KNOW they are wrecking the joint?

Quote from: Tonyprep"Intelligence" was defined by humans so has no intrinsic meaning. All species act like species. Some appear cleverer than others, to our eyes (partly because we think we're rational and so can set arbitrary bars for what is intelligent), but all would enter overshoot if they had our abilities, or if they are presented with an abundance of resources that they could access (perhaps by some natural environmental disaster for other species). Even in declaring rationality, we use our definition of it (there are no other definitions). We are rational because we are. I don't believe any of it.

Good for you then. If folks had worked through to this point of view prior to all the End Times Rapture Scenarios that folks began building back on Earth Day 1970 we wouldn't have had to endure all the secular end times nonsense since then.  Us humans are terrific pud knockers when it comes to intellectual masturbatuon, we just can't help ourselves.

Quote from: RE on Jun 04, 2024, 01:46 AMThe thing is, Joe Rogan's audience IS stupid enough to eat this shit up.  Just as MAGA crowds are stupid enough to eat up the shit that Donald #VonShitzinPants defecates from his mouth every day.
RE

Nice analogy, the slowest reaction thing.

And your comment above applies exactly to the legions of doomers as well. Stupid enough to eat that shit up.

Cold War! Mayan Calendar! The Great Dieoff! Planet X! Peak oil 1990! 2008 recession! Area 51! Blue Ocean Event! The Sun is getting lighter every day!

Well...not that last one....but the timing of it isn't the neato cool doom tomorrow requirement of the stupid shit that gets shoveled into the feeding troughs at the doomer feedlot.

Quote from: TDoS on Jun 04, 2024, 02:21 PMAnd your comment above applies exactly to the legions of doomers as well. Stupid enough to eat that shit up.

There's a difference  With Terence Howard's physics or anyone buying the MAGA party line vs doomers: it's a quid pro quo.  They are all automatically idiots.  It's not automatic for Domers.

Just being a Doomer doesn't make you an idiot.  I'm not an idiot, and I'm a doomer.  If you can make jusifiable arguments for your doomer philosophy, you're not an idiot.  Even if your timeline isn't right on the nose.

RE

Quote from: RE on Jun 04, 2024, 03:36 PMThere's a difference  With Terence Howard's physics or anyone buying the MAGA party line vs doomers: it's a quid pro quo.  They are all automatically idiots.  It's not automatic for Domers.

Incorrect. Both groups have intelligient people leading the charge, slopping the hogs at the trough for votes, likes and clicks, doom, political, or web popularity fame.

Quote from: REJust being a Doomer doesn't make you an idiot.  I'm not an idiot, and I'm a doomer.

Because I don't buy your premise it doesn't matter. You are correct, you aren't an idiot, but neither is Ted Cruz, Eastman, Clarence Thomas or his wife, etc etc.

Quote from: REIf you can make jusifiable arguments for your doomer philosophy, you're not an idiot.  Even if your timeline isn't right on the nose.
RE

Slopping the hogs for MAGA or doomer fame isn't about timeline accuracy or philosphy. It is about "all hogs are equal, but some are more equal than others". Smart hogs run MAGA and Doomerville, no slop for them. They just need enough slop to keep the other hogs going for it so they don't notice that it is slop they are being fed. And besides, most hogs are happier following the herd without a seconds thought. Be it white nationalists or doomers.

Quoteintelligient

people or intelligent people.  Which is it.

Are they that the same as these?

Quote from: TDoS on Jun 04, 2024, 08:45 PM

Quote from: RE on Jun 04, 2024, 03:36 PMThere's a difference  With Terence Howard's physics or anyone buying the MAGA party line vs doomers: it's a quid pro quo.  They are all automatically idiots.  It's not automatic for Domers.

Incorrect. Both groups have intelligient people leading the charge, slopping the hogs at the trough for votes, likes and clicks, doom, political, or web popularity fame.

Anyone following Terence Howard who buys his scientific reasoning is an idiot.  Same with anyone who buys Trumpovetsky's politics

Quote

Quote from: REJust being a Doomer doesn't make you an idiot.  I'm not an idiot, and I'm a doomer.

Because I don't buy your premise it doesn't matter. You are correct, you aren't an idiot, but neither is Ted Cruz, Eastman, Clarence Thomas or his wife, etc etc.

Don't know who "Eastman" is, don't know anything about Clarence Thomas' wife, but Ted Cruz & Clarence Thomas are idiots.  Just idiots who made it through Law School.

Quote

Quote from: REIf you can make jusifiable arguments for your doomer philosophy, you're not an idiot.  Even if your timeline isn't right on the nose.
RE

Slopping the hogs for MAGA or doomer fame isn't about timeline accuracy or philosphy. It is about "all hogs are equal, but some are more equal than others". Smart hogs run MAGA and Doomerville, no slop for them. They just need enough slop to keep the other hogs going for it so they don't notice that it is slop they are being fed. And besides, most hogs are happier following the herd without a seconds thought. Be it white nationalists or doomers.

Since I don't slop hogs for Doomer fame nor have I ever claimed anything about the hierarchical organization of hogs or doomers, I don't see how this commentary is relevant.  I write about Doom because the topic interests me.  My writing isn't slop, it's generally pretty concise prose.  The readers who like my prose aren't hogs, generally they're pretty well read people with expertiese in some field  and contribute their own ideas to the total content here.  Your implication is that I write slop, the Diner serves slop and Diners are consumers of slop.  I can only interpret this as a full on insult of the Diner.  Cooler time.

RE

Quote from: RE on Jun 05, 2024, 01:32 AMSince I don't slop hogs for Doomer fame nor have I ever claimed anything about the hierarchical organization of hogs or doomers, I don't see how this commentary is relevant.  I write about Doom because the topic interests me.  My writing isn't slop, it's generally pretty concise prose.  The readers who like my prose aren't hogs, generally they're pretty well read people with expertiese in some field  and contribute their own ideas to the total content here.  Your implication is that I write slop, the Diner serves slop and Diners are consumers of slop.  I can only interpret this as a full on insult of the Diner.  Cooler time.

RE

Again interesting. You are so sensitive to the basic observations of what I wrote that not only are you stymied for a response but it must be removed that others dare not see the truth of it.

Fasinating RE. Just fascinating.