I liked this article and would like to submit it for inclusion in the ongoing saga of the 6th extinction.

Bullet points:

Here are the key bullet points summarizing the article:

Collapse of civilization is likely to occur in waves, not all at once
Four main waves of collapse are identified: environmental, economic, political, and population
Environmental collapse:

Already happening faster than expected
2023 saw record temperatures and extreme weather events globally
Climate change impacts are nonlinear and accelerating


Economic collapse:

Driven by climate disasters and declining fossil fuel availability
Will likely include supply-driven inflation, negative growth, recession, depression
Central bank interventions may be ineffective against supply-driven issues
Rationing may become necessary to deal with shortages


Political collapse:

May occur more rapidly than environmental/economic collapse
Governments lose ability to maintain order as energy access declines
Large nations may break into smaller, more localized political units


Population collapse:

Result of environmental damage, economic breakdown, and political instability
Earth's carrying capacity for humans will be reduced
Population decline may occur through both lower birth rates and higher death rates
Estimates of sustainable population range from 1-7 billion, down from current 8 billion


At each stage of collapse, humans have choices that can make subsequent stages better or worse
The author argues against "radical acceptance" and for human agency in shaping outcomes
The article emphasizes the interconnected nature of these collapses and the potential for cascading effects as each wave unfolds.

What Are We Talking About When We Talk About Collapse?

If you get a pay wall, let me know if you would like me to copy and paste the article. I don't see anyway I can upload a text file.?

Email your text file to kdog@chasingthesquirrel.com I can post it.

Quote from: Knarf on Jun 22, 2024, 05:07 AMIf you get a pay wall, let me know if you would like me to copy and paste the article. I don't see anyway I can upload a text file.?

You can take a .txt file and upload it to Google drive and make it a shared folder.  Then post the link to that folder here.

If it's a copyright violation, Google may catch that and prevent you from loading it.  You might have to use different cloud storage.

Can't you load a .txt file to the space you lease for chasingthesquirrel?

RE

I can post it. But I need the text.  I can make an upload button and in time I will make one.  After the Dynamo page is running.  Knarf could cut and paste the Medium article here.  Not too many people are going to care if their Medium Article gets some free publicity.

And it would be fair use I think if it were included in a post that commented on it. 

I tried to copy and paste it. It is too long. I really don't mind forgetting it. It would be an addition to some thoughtful thinking about how collapse will happen, but we understand and know that this will unravel in waves. Each tsunami washing away some useless institution, finally. Then the adaptation/s that are immanent. So, as you can see K-Dog, it is very long. I could have AI give me bullet points from the article. Let me try that....

Here are the key bullet points summarizing the article:

Collapse of civilization is likely to occur in waves, not all at once
Understanding these waves can help individuals and families prepare for survival

The four waves of collapse are:

Environmental Collapse
• Already happening, with 2023 being a wake-up call for climate change impacts
• Characterized by extreme weather events, rising temperatures, and environmental disasters
• Nonlinear nature of climate change means impacts can escalate rapidly

Economic Collapse
• Driven by climate disasters and the phasing out of fossil fuels
• Key milestones include:

Disruption of economic flows and resource stocks
Direct damage to industries like insurance and agriculture
Supply-driven inflation and price spikes
Slowing growth and central bank interventions
Negative growth and economic depression
Necessity for rationing to deal with shortages

Political Collapse

• Occurs more rapidly than environmental and economic collapse
• Triggered by governments' inability to maintain order due to energy shortages
• May result in the breakdown of large nation-states into smaller, autonomous units

Population Collapse

• The final wave, resulting from the previous three
• Driven by reduced carrying capacity of the planet due to environmental damage
• Estimates for sustainable population range from 1-7 billion, depending on various factors

Each wave presents opportunities for humans to make choices that can mitigate or worsen the situation
The concept of "radical acceptance" is challenged; human agency is emphasized in shaping the future

Quote from: Knarf on Jun 24, 2024, 02:52 AMI tried to copy and paste it. It is too long.

Try hitting <ctrl-A> to highlight all the text, then <ctrl-c> to copy it.  Then go to Notepad and hi <ctrl-v> to paste it.  That should paste the whole article.

RE

Quote from: RE on Jun 24, 2024, 06:25 AM

Quote from: Knarf on Jun 24, 2024, 02:52 AMI tried to copy and paste it. It is too long.

Try hitting <ctrl-A> to highlight all the text, then <ctrl-c> to copy it.  Then go to Notepad and hi <ctrl-v> to paste it.  That should paste the whole article.

RE

The limit on the posting is 4000 characters. This article exceeds that. I copied and pasted it, and then got the error message that it exceeded the 4000 character limit. No biggie...just a pretty rational approach to total collapse.

I could change the limit, but I was able to get the author's name from the Medium page and he is on Linked-In.  I asked him to email me a copy.  Sort of.  I had to do this in 200 characters or less.  I used all 200.  We shall see what happens.

We are not mere spectators here.  We have mojo.

If I like it I'll post it on the main page.  I have not put anything up there since I began the Limits to Growth software project.  Or planned on anything since 'the project' has taken on a life of its own as I knew it would.  Success is slower but steady now.  At more than 2000 lines of tight JavaScript code I have has complexity beyond that which would be needed to simply 'hardwire' the model equations as others have done.  Software to only implement the specific model equations of the World III model would be easier, but I don't have the card deck yet.  I do have the info to build it if I have to.

I hope to post something soon.

Then we can write the World IV model.  Which with nothing to run it on, would never otherwise be done.

********************************  Four waves of collapse.  Not necessarily.  The first wave may do you in and then that is all for you.  And it was it three storm centers that collided to make the storm in the 'Perfect Storm' movie.  A Seneca cliff of trouble.  When interconnections between parts produce cascade failure.

Quote from: K-Dog on Jun 24, 2024, 08:44 AMWe are not mere spectators here.  We have mojo.

Agreed!

I have been reading a little bit more of that authors writing. It is fairly consistent now with the idea that collapse is inevitable and it is happening now, and will continue to collapse in the next couple decades. He is a capitalist economist, so reaching this prognostication is taking some risks in being a Debbie downer. I wonder what you all think about his approach. You mentioned the 4 waves of collapse he sees happening, and I don't think it will be THAT predictable. The chaos will be a big factor in our inability to stop the collapse. Those waves are not so distinct that we could possibly prepare for them. The 1.Enviromental 2. Economic 3. Political 4. Population collapse will happen simultaneously with one effecting the others along the way.

Unfortunately that leaves us meat packages little choice in being prepared for the end of this civilization. It looks like Trumpism could take over for the next 4 years, so who the hell knows what will happen. The middle east and global south are moving to incorporate away from the petrol-dollar, which will only complicate the mess. I am not great at predicting so many variables flying around and changing so rapidly. I do think the American consumer is waking up a bit to the environmental trouble we are facing, but it doesn't look like that is what is motivating their vote. It is the economy. That is what the spin doctors of buy more propaganda are experts at. SPEND MORE! It will all work itself out. That shit will probably win this election. We are toast. "I see dead people."

QuoteThe food chain. I'm still amazed no one is talking about the fact that insect biomass has declined by ∼47% and abundance declined by ∼61.5% over the last 35  years. In some areas it's measured 75% decline in a single generation. This "insect apocalypse" is...very bad. Don't just take my word for it: "Indeed, most biologists agree that the world has entered its sixth mass extinction event, the first since the end of the Cretaceous Period 66 million years ago, when more than 80% of all species, including the nonavian dinosaurs, perished."