My confidence level in a recession beginning in the 3rd Quarter has now increasedto the point I think it's time to give it a thread of its own.  The decreasing M2 money supply since last year was the key indicator, and Da Fed's inability to lower interest rates due to stubbornly persistent inflation have made this a nearly inevitable outcome.

More obvious signs like rising unemployment and more bankruptcies are making the predictions come out from the "experts" more frequently now, so it looks like I will be able to chalk this up in the Win column for my prognostications. 

How deep and how long it will last are open questions, but my suspicions are it will be a pretty tough one.  That means even MOAR Homeless folks pitching their tents in the Mall parking lots as well as a likely defeat for Uncle Joe at the polls if he doesn't wise up and drop out of the race in favor of the Lady Obamanator.

You heard it here first.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-outlook-recession-unemployment-lazar-states-inflation-wealth-spending-2024-5

Recession seems almost certain with 19 states in trouble already, expert warns

RE

Well, 9 out of 10 economists polled by the National Association for Business Economics don't agree with me, and predict a "soft landing" and more growth of our fabulous economy with a shrinking money supply, China dumping treasuries, delinquent CRE mortgages and Regional banks filing for BK at increasing speed.  This sounds like cheerleading to me, but who knows?  I'm not an expert, just a Rogue Economist. 

Note that not a single one of these 10 economists are named. I'd love to know where NABE dug them up. Nobody even takes credit for writing the article.  It's attributed to "staff".  The Janitors?

What's the over under on this?

https://www.businessreport.com/article/see-what-economists-are-now-saying-about-the-chance-of-a-recession

See what economists are now saying about the chance of a recession

RE

Quote from: RE on May 22, 2024, 11:39 AMWhat's the over under on this?
https://www.businessreport.com/article/see-what-economists-are-now-saying-about-the-chance-of-a-recession
RE

Who cares, been waiting 2 years now for the claimed rcession that never showed up, salivating to activate the usual time true and tested investment strategy.

This does not sound good.  If Da Fed actually ADMITS to $513B in losses, you gotta figure the real amount is over $1T.  A liquidity crunch is definitely coming on the heels of the CREproblems with delinquent loans.  A couple of really big REITs have already started limiting redemptions, so the pressure is on.

It's always annoying waiting for these things to actually blow up.  You know it's coming, but they keep shuffling around the debt, compartmentalizing losses into "Bad Banks" and changing reserve requirements until its finally perceived that it's all just air and somebody flinches trying to get out first.

Jamie Dimon has been making dire predictions, so I wouldn't be surprised if JP Morgan tries to sneak out and leave BOA and Wells twisting in the wind.  They're all unethical scum, but he's slimier than most . lol.

https://watcher.guru/news/brics-517-billion-in-unrealized-losses-hits-us-banking-system

BRICS: $517 Billion in Unrealized Losses Hits US Banking System

RE

Happy Days are Here Again!


You look around at the homeless issue, the bankruptcies, the distressed CRE properties and you wonder, "HTF do they come up with stats like these?"?

It's EZ!  You simply stop counting all the people who fall off the cliff!  They no longer show up as Unemployed, they're not in the workforce!  Obviously, they became independently wealthy overnght and no longer need to work!

You don't count homeless people because homes are selling at record high prices!  Sales figures are up because everything costs more to buy and Consumption is the bedrock of the economy.

Min wage for Fast Food workers in CA is up to $20/hr, except fast food chains are closing up shop so the burger flippers don't have jobs.

Yup, it's a miracle economy in the Land of Good & Plenty.  Our worries are over.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/06/us-economy-excellent/678630/

The U.S. Economy Reaches Superstar Status

RE

Reply to: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/06/us-economy-excellent/678630/

QuoteStill, that doesn't change the fact that the U.S. economy has had a remarkable four-year run

Reification.  The American economy is given the breath of life.  Something that actually does not exist is made real.  The intended consequence, delusion.  Grows.

Workers sell their time to the highest bidder.  Few people own any means of production. The few who do use their machinery and facilities to create profit for themselves.  Without regard for the community.  This privileged minority impoverish people as the slice paid in wages becomes EVER smaller to make their profit slice larger over time.

A fact hidden by reification of the 'economy' into something of substance.  In real life substance does not change from one moment to the next.  C'est la vie.  Substance means existence, and substance resists change.  Barney the Dino lives.

Calling exploitation the 'economy' hides an ugly truth.  Wage slavery erodes workers over time.  The process is inexorable.  It is a feature of the system.

QuoteA more subtle consequence, and arguably a more important one, is a shift in power from employers to workers.

Talking about the pandemic here.  I am surprised the comparison to the black death was not thrown into the mix.  Workers demanding more money for their time.  The horror.  Social fabric ripped asunder.  This perceived prosperity of the undeserving who own nothing must be beaten down or chaos will rule the land.  Don't you know:

QuoteIf you are a janitor who smokes a fat doobie and watches You Tube all day you do not need the same political rights as Elon Musk.  Musk knows what to do with stuff and you don't.

There is no power shift.  This is castles in the air.  Workers do not own the means of production.  Employers have all power. 

For years the delusion that workers have power has been pushed.  Bullshit on that.  Unions are DEAD.  Americans think well educated wage-slavers are part of an upper class.  Owners who reap profits know better.  They like this pretend game very much.  It makes their theft look normal, and this pretend game lets them hide in plain sight.  Owners like people who get an extra scoop of gruel thinking they are one of them.

The 'economy' is doing well no, the king is altogether as naked as the day that he was born.  The winds of chaos blow anew and the means of production is owned by few.  That fact has not changed.  As many people suffer as are doing well.  A thousand Atlantic articles can't change that fact.

America is going the way of SODO. 

SODO is south of downtown Seattle.  It has a 1st avenue that has been delightfully gentrifying for years.  I worked for a billionaire on this road for five years before the pandemic.  Stormy Daniels headlined at the 1st avenue Strip Club.  Starbucks headquarters is on the road, and a Starbucks retail outlet of course.  But across the street is a higher end pastry / coffee shop where for eight bucks every day you can enjoy your wage slavery (or ownership) like a king before you do whatever at obviously more than twenty bucks an hour.

4th avenue is 'across the tracks'.  Tracks that carry oil trains now.  There is a Denny's Diner on 4th avenue.  Every time I go by and 'Denny's' is still open it is a good day.  The high end pastry shop equivalent on 4th  is an AM/PM gas station where a candy bar costs three bucks.  You can get out the door with coffee and a doughnut for four bucks.  Make sure you enjoy the sprinkles on your doughnut or you might feel gyped.  Homeless people pass by pushing shopping carts as you wave your plastic.  Plastic bags are their shelter from the rain.  Every day 4th avenue gets more run down.  No plastic no doughnut.  A street of dreams, and a street of broken dreams.  Oil trains running between.  Oil to make more plastic.  This is America.

Go reify that 'Atlantic' writers.  Give the ever widening gap the same reality that you give your precious 'economy'.  But you won't.  You created your 'economy' to hide reality.  To hide your money game.  To keep the theft of the commons normal and legal.

Closer to 95, since the Great Depression didn't start until around 1930.  The stock market crashed in 1929, but the Depression took a little while to really get rolling.  Also, just because none have been as bad since doesn't mean this one won't be WORSE than the GD.  There was tons of oil in the ground ready to dig up and do a reboot after WWII.  This time, after WWIII finishes, nothing left to kick start with.  An endless, eternal Depression, and Age of Darkness. The Grapes of Wrath will seem like a Picnic by comparison.

https://finbold.com/brace-for-the-worst-recession-in-100-years-warns-wall-street-expert/

RE

Quote from: RE on Jul 04, 2024, 01:11 AMCloser to 95, since the Great Depression didn't start until around 1930.  The stock market crashed in 1929, but the Depression took a little while to really get rolling.  Also, just because none have been as bad since doesn't mean this one won't be WORSE than the GD.  There was tons of oil in the ground ready to dig up and do a reboot after WWII.  This time, after WWIII finishes, nothing left to kick start with.  An endless, eternal Depression, and Age of Darkness. The Grapes of Wrath will seem like a Picnic by comparison.

https://finbold.com/brace-for-the-worst-recession-in-100-years-warns-wall-street-expert/

RE

That article was written from the point of view of this is what we want to say so lets cherry pick.  A serious reader will spot the bullshit.  But the author does not care about serious readers any more than the blunderbuss of Nigerian email scams do.  It is all about volume and hooking a fish.  The author starts with

Quoteinterest rates – which usually decelerate economic activity – have remained high for far longer than expected.

But:

The average 30-year fixed rate reached an all-time record low of 2.65% in January 2021 before surging to 7.79% in October 2023. In 2024 so mortgage rates have been hovering close to the 7% mark.  In the '80s, the interest rate was 13%!" Mortgage rates were 18.63% in October 1981.  Today's mortgage rates are on par with what homeowners have paid in the past.

This nimrod thinks the post-bailout economy is normal.