Quote from: RE on Mar 30, 2026, 11:42 AM

OILPRICE.COM • 2026-03-30

Is Trump About To Fall Into Iran’s Trap?

Iran is trying to lure the U.S. into a ground war, knowing prolonged involvement could force Washington into a more favorable deal for Tehran. The Houthis’ escalation is meant to trigger U.S. military intervention by endangering global oil flows. Dual chokepoint disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb could cripple up to ~45% of global oil supply, potentially sending prices toward $150–$200+ and pressuring the global economy.

About to?  Well, first he still does have to actually get the Jarheads through the straight before they can even make the attempt to take the island.  Meanwhile, there are hundreds of tankers loaded with Oil floating around in the Gulf.  All the Iranians need to do is sink a couple, then set the oil slick on fire.  This I suspect is what they mean by setting the troops on fire.

RE

I do not agree with his analysis.  Iran does not want to lose Iranians just to get Americans.  As strategy keeping an enemy out of your borders is a good idea.  Iran has defensive weapons to keep the invasion from happening.  Missiles and drones.  They will use them before they kill their young men.  Iran cares about life more than whoever wrote this article does.  The author has a western warbucks attitude.

Taking out the desalination plants would be effective.  The US would be sidelined by supplying water for millions of people.  That would end the invasion plan.  Our psychopaths in charge will not want to do it, but it is their ass if they do not.

Quote from: K-Dog on Mar 30, 2026, 11:47 AMTaking out the desalination plants would be effective.  The US would be sidelined by supplying water for millions of people.  That would end the invasion plan.  Our psychopaths in charge will not want to do it, but it is their ass if they do not.[/color]

Targeting desalinization plants is a war crime, besides which if they hit the Iranian ones, the Iranians will hit the Saudi, Omani, Kuwaiti & UAE ones.  No oil at all would flow since all the oil workers would be dying of thirst after about a week.

RE

It would not be a war crime if Iran were ready to meet basic thirst requirements.  Iran takes out the desalination plants and then informs the Americans they have to leave immediately as their presence prevents Iran from meeting the basic thirst requirements of the Gulf states. 

Which Iran then shows the world they are ready to do.  Then the US has to counter by supplying water for millions itself, and that sidelines the invasion.  Trucking water for thirst would only be a few million gallons a day.  It would be a logistical nightmare for the US.  But not so much for Iran. 

Taking out a desalination plant would not be a war crime if you stand ready to provide water for basic needs.

If all the desal plants are bombed, where do they get the water from?  Fly it in from Russia?  Millions of bottles of water?  Daily? I don't think so.  Not a good plan.

RE

Quote from: RE on Mar 30, 2026, 02:57 PMIf all the desal plants are bombed, where do they get the water from?  Fly it in from Russia?  Millions of bottles of water?  Daily? I don't think so.  Not a good plan.

RE

I don't agree,  It can be trucked in from someplace up north, and I think the Iranians agreed with me about two hours ago.

"bowser" is Australian English for a fuel pump at a gas station (what Americans usually call a gas pump).


<--  You know, this place.  Back in the day being in the southern hemisphere might have bought some time.  As things are now, down under is among the first places to say :