[TDoS]

Far as Mao and Pol Pot are concerned, they had good ideas and bad ones.

Indeed. And it only cost tens of millions of people's their lives. Around here the MIB occasionally deciding to erase posts that are meaningless in the greater context is taken quite seriously, but idiots running countries starving their citizens by the tens of millions? They had some good ideas to make up for that. Which of their good ideas balanced this scale when it comes to their people?

Collective ownership of the means of production and abolishment of private property is a pretty good idea.

Stalin thought the same, and handed Ukraine the Holodomor. When will these "good ideas" that in the past just murdered tens of millions finally work do you think?

Purging the society of the rich and privileged elite also a pretty good idea.  Abolishment of capitalism also good.  Purging Universities of intellectuals not so good.

Yeah, not worried about purging universities, but more starving everyone in sight with how well these ideas worked out in the past. But hey, at least the rich and privileged got spanked as well!

Suburb dwellers going back to farming is a pretty good idea, it's certainly a more sustainable form of living than shopping at the mall and commuting 50 miles a day in traffic to work in a 100 story tall air conditioned skyscraper.

So you are with Heinberg, Pol Pot, Mao and Stalin when it comes to this "back to farming" idea? What happens to folks unable to participate like you, just bullets to the head or a gas chamber?

....just that the dependence on a finite resource was bound to cause disruption when the resource became hard to come by.  It doesn't take much to disrupt a complex system, as evidenced by the fact is all it takes to completely screw up the global economy is a few towel heads with speed boats and shoulder fired missiles and RPGs.

Dependence on finite resources is WHAT HUMANS HAVE DONE to date. It isn't as though humans all got together at a big confernece during the hunting and gathering stage and decided to stay that way, knowing in advance what dependency on non-renewables would entail. Although any economist could also argue )and do) that this dependency is required to leverage to a future we can see right now (even if it is the early stages) of renewable energy, fusion waiting inthe wings, an electrified world, the ability to increase recovery factors and efficiencies in accessing those non-renewable resources, and so on and so forth. Economics isn't a physical or natural science for a reason, but it does allow for GREAT storytelling.

Anyhow, whether PO occured in 2008, 2018 or sometime in the future, we're definitely in the deep doo doo now as the shortages begin migrating from Asia to ports all over the world.

Pick a year anywhere between Jan 1 1900 and today and I'll come up with a deep doo-doo story. Dooming is what doomers do, if not the Mayan Calendar, then peak oil. If not that, then Yellowstone. Continue ad infinitum. "Being in deep do do" is a throwaway perpetual motion machine among the doomer legions. You've still got a working brain, you can at least pretend you aren't the only one in the room with one.

[RE]

10s of 10*6s starving is a drop in the bucket compared to 10*8 or more that will die when the fertilizer starts running short.  Prior to the invention of the Haber process prior to WWII, the carrying capacity of the earth for homo sapiens was estimated at no more than 1.6-2B people.  At the time, Fritz Haber estimated they only had about 5-10 years before they hit the max.

AI Overview

Based on estimates by agricultural scientists such as Vaclav Smil, the Earth's carrying capacity for humans prior to the invention of the Haber-Bosch process (early 20th century) was approximately 1.6 to 2 billion people, or roughly a quarter the population that can be supported today with synthetic fertilizers.

The goal of getting more people back into agriculture wasn't wrong, it was just poorly implemented and rushed.  Had it been followed through with back then, we never would have got into the situation of having 8.3B people ambulating around terra firma in the first place.

The Great Depression, bad management, poor planning and weaponization of starvation as  means to squash the Ukrainian independence movement caused the Holodomor.  Castro and the Cubans had very good results with their collectivization of farming, and the Israelis have had good results with their Kibbutzes.  When they are not dropping bombs killing and maiming towel head kids, they run very efficient communal farms.

RE

[TDoS]

10s of 10*6s starving is a drop in the bucket compared to 10*8 or more that will die when the fertilizer starts running short. 

Sure. And when global cooling kicks in a big chunk of the Earth's population will die-off, as claimed in 1970 by folks with degrees in the field and whatnot. Doomers of the day as well I imagine. Folks all agreed.

And your angle, based within the overall concept of Apocalyticism, has been around for millennium. So now you want to argue fertilizer? The only good news being, if you are right THIS time (as compared to all the others) then at LEAST we'll get enough of a population reduction to actually be able to claim some form of collapse is happening. FINALLY the doomers might have got one right.

Then again....the usual might happen. Folks adapt, adjust, find workarounds, and compensate. The things that Doomers apparently never factor into their proclamations. Have you?

Prior to the invention of the Haber process prior to WWII, the carrying capacity of the earth for homo sapiens was estimated at no more than 1.6-2B people.  At the time, Fritz Haber estimated they only had about 5-10 years before they hit the max.

COOL! And before people discovered black rocks that could burn, the carrying capacity was even less! And then what happened? EXACTLY what I previously suggested, listed nicely on Page 18 of my copy of Catton's Overshoot. He might have been a xenophobe at heart, but at the very least you should know that your argument has been blown out of the water by every thing listed on that page. And your only argument around it is claiming it can't happen again? You aren't that stupid, so either you are assuming I am (which is a terrible habit of yours) or you already know you can't and just want to pretend everyone else really is stupid.

The goal of getting more people back into agriculture wasn't wrong, it was just poorly implemented and rushed.

Yes, I'm sure the 10's if not 100 million folks murdered during the last totalitarian experiments in this process just didn't try hard enough, only their LIVES depending on it and everything. Not enough motivation you figure, what is your plan for motivating people to grow food that is better than telling them their lives depended on it?

Had it been followed through with back then, we never would have got into the situation of having 8.3B people ambulating around terra firma in the first place.

It was followed through. All those folks died, and the fearless leaders who liked your idea, changed their minds when it turned out that just everyone died. 

The Great Depression, bad management, poor planning and weaponization of starvation as  means to squash the Ukrainian independence movement caused the Holodomor.  Castro and the Cubans had very good results with their collectivization of farming, and the Israelis have had good results with their Kibbutzes.  When they are not dropping bombs killing and maiming towel head kids, they run very efficient communal farms.

RE

Well then there we go! More Castro's and Cubans, and murderous Jews, and we're in business!

Here is my bet. Catton's opinion, resembling yours, is that a process that has happened throughout millenia has suddenly stopped. Because HE, and YOU, can't see NOW the next evolution. That is mostly a lack of imagination, a sense of absolutism in terms of what is today in terms of technology, will not change. Both you, and he, apparently lack the vision to cast progress into the future. In your case it is probably just because it fits a personal belief, because you aren't stupid. Which means you, perhaps like Catton, suffer from the same psychological hiccup. Catton, after detailing all the prior multiple phase changes...decided that well...NOW....it must stop. You are are both smart, he even published the prior phase changes, but both of you, because you can't see it in the moment, pretend it can't happen again.

Amusingly, odds are, it is already happening. It is why peak oil predictions were wrong. Both of you lack whatever that perspective is that allows an analytic projection into the future that isn't just doom. You are just repeating what the experts claimed in 1970...and for the same reason. The inability to see the next phase change.

Hubbert screwed the pooch because he, and others, couldn't see beyond the data, geology and history. They skipped the economic component. Like Ehrlich, he missed some pretty basic economic concepts.

Let me give you just one pie in the sky example. Recovery factors in oil and gas fields were once upon a time X%. With time and technology, they increased to Y%. A change in economics and technology. This opened up potentially hundreds of billions of barrels of new oil, if not trillions ultimately. EVs arriving on the world stage and in mass production, and their ever decreasing costs. Batteries that rely less on critical minerals. Solar panels on roof tops all across America. A paradigm shift in where enegy is produced, and from what. Fusion is a good example. Not here yet, but the instant it is? Another shift.

 

[K-Dog]

LOWYINSTITUTE.ORG 2026-03-27

The Philippines fuel emergency is a textbook case of a warning hiding in official statistics

The data was there. Manila just didn’t act on it.

CSMONITOR.COM 2026-03-31

As oil prices surge, Filipinos feel the impact of a distant conflict

Even before global fuel prices started surging due to the Middle East conflict, life was already a daily calculation for Romeo Esmenda. He makes a living in Quezon City, northeast of Manila, driving a jeepney.

SUNSTAR.COM.PH 2026-03-26

Marcos assures PH crude oil supply to last until end of June

Chevron Philippines Inc. president and country chairman Pongtorn Tangmanuswong said that supply of fuel is only sufficient until the last week of April.

DEVELOPMENTAID.ORG 2026-04-20

Philippines faces energy emergency as global oil crisis exposes deep vulnerabilities

The Philippines has declared a national energy emergency as a global oil shock triggered by the escalating U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict disrupts fuel supplies and drives up costs across the country.

Trump's WWIII

THESOUFANCENTER.ORG 2026-04-15

The Spillover Effects of the Iran War on Asia

Asia is experiencing shocks and reverberations across multiple economic sectors as a result of the U.S.-Israel vs. Iran war.

Trump's clusterfuck of faults, and his bad decisions has started a tsunami that will smash onto America's shores in the months to come.  For now the waters are calm, but this state of affairs will not remain.

[RE]

True it was followed through with, and after the depression and Stalin crushing the Ukie independence movement, it worked fine.  Also worked OK before under Lenin & Trotsky  before the depression.  After the early problems in China, it worked so well they had to institute a 1 child policy to keep the population from ballooning up too fast.

You conflate the problems of totalitarianism with communism.  They are not one in the same thing.  Capitalism and totalitarianism aren't the same either, together they are called Fascism.  Lotta problems with that system also, as we begin to see now here in the FSoA.

Definitely a phase change coming.  Lots more water evaporating from the oceans and lakes into the atmosphere.

RE

[K-Dog]

True it was followed through with, and after the depression and Stalin crushing the Ukie independence movement, it worked fine.  Also worked OK before under Lenin & Trotsky  before the depression.  After the early problems in China, it worked so well they had to institute a 1 child policy to keep the population from ballooning up too fast.

You conflate the problems of totalitarianism with communism.  They are not one in the same thing.  Capitalism and totalitarianism aren't the same either, together they are called Fascism.  Lotta problems with that system also, as we begin to see now here in the FSoA.

Definitely a phase change coming.  Lots more water evaporating from the oceans and lakes into the atmosphere.

RE

The Soviet Union after 1923 was a degenerated workers' state.  Property was formally nationalized, but political power had been usurped by a privileged bureaucracy that pushed aside soviet democracy and the working class.  Trotsky rejected the sloppy equation of 'Stalinism = socialism.'  as Stalinism was a counterrevolutionary distortion arising from the objective contradictions produced by the material conditions of the time.

Now what will the objective contradictions generated by the material conditions Trump gives to us do.  The contradictions will resolve.  Such are the physics of real life.  How the contradictions resolve will not be pleasant.

[TDoS]

True it was followed through with, and after the depression and Stalin crushing the Ukie independence movement, it worked fine.

Worked fine? Really? The USSR had like a average lifespan of its citizens of like 57 years old under Communism, and the last time K-Dog was talking about the wonders of such a system I posted a picture of a Soviet era kitchen and asked him if he thought the wife would think that was juset jim dandy fine. As expected when uncomfortable truths are so easily revealed, I believe the post generated no answer, such are the consequences of well thought out examples.

You'd be dead already in Stalin's system, you might think that is fine, but it wasn't American's fleeing the US to live in such a fine and upstanding system back in the day.

Also worked OK before under Lenin & Trotsky  before the depression.  After the early problems in China, it worked so well they had to institute a 1 child policy to keep the population from ballooning up too fast.

If you minimize "early problems" as the greatest manmade dieoff in the history, sure, look how great Tibet, Hong Kong, the Uyghurs love the system, and Taiwan isn't arming itself to try and keep subjugation away from them, but to steal American military tech first because they LOVE the idea of being Chinese and are just faking enjoying a free market economy.

You conflate the problems of totalitarianism with communism.

Only because communists appear to love being totalitarian states. Why aren't you regaling me with stories of how well the North Koreans have it compared to their poor, downtrodden southern neighbors? Are all South Koreans yearning to move North to be free of their capitalist overlords?

They are not one in the same thing.

I agree. Too bad they just LOOK that way sometimes. Like, in between killing off millions because, you know, totalitarians LOVE Communism because it is GREAT for totaltarian rulers to make everyone do what they want.

Capitalism and totalitarianism aren't the same either, together they are called Fascism.  Lotta problems with that system also, as we begin to see now here in the FSoA.

Capitalism has some MASSIVE faults, no one is claiming it doesn't. But some might be arguing it is the least shittiest, plus as the Presidency goes, so can go the US. So when the Orange One's time is done, maybe we'll see a bit more normality return. Maybe.

Definitely a phase change coming.

Already has. It began 10 years ago when Americans thought voting in dementia addled geriatrics was a good idea. Maybe by the fall of 2028 we can hope for a phase change just from NOT doing that again.

[RE]

Definitely a phase change coming.

Already has. It began 10 years ago when Americans thought voting in dementia addled geriatrics was a good idea. Maybe by the fall of 2028 we can hope for a phase change just from NOT doing that again.

New generation coming in!  Don Jr. Vs Hunter Biden for POTUS!  Even betteer, I read a while back Barron Trump was looking to get into politics.  Either party wins, we get the Winkelvoss Twins for Treasury Secretary and Fed Chairman.  Da Fed will be replace by the 1st Crypto Bank of the FSoA and the Dollar replaced by a basket of blockchain currencies including Bittcoin, Stablecoin and Moosecoin.  Epstein will be exhumed, resurrected and appointed Secretary of Jailbait Welfare.  Elon Musk will singlehandedly fix the declining birthrate by buying up the White Slave trade and impregnating the entire female population of models in Eastern Europe.

Happy Days are here again.

RE

[TDoS]

Definitely a phase change coming.

Already has. It began 10 years ago when Americans thought voting in dementia addled geriatrics was a good idea. Maybe by the fall of 2028 we can hope for a phase change just from NOT doing that again.

New generation coming in!  Don Jr. Vs Hunter Biden for POTUS!  Even betteer, I read a while back Barron Trump was looking to get into politics.  Either party wins, we get the Winkelvoss Twins for Treasury Secretary and Fed Chairman.  Da Fed will be replace by the 1st Crypto Bank of the FSoA and the Dollar replaced by a basket of blockchain currencies including Bittcoin, Stablecoin and Moosecoin.  Epstein will be exhumed, resurrected and appointed Secretary of Jailbait Welfare.  Elon Musk will singlehandedly fix the declining birthrate by buying up the White Slave trade and impregnating the entire female population of models in Eastern Europe.

Happy Days are here again.

RE

Yeah, I didn't think you'd be able to handle the main gist of my post, the entire "communism is good!" angle is just too easy to offset by pointing out...WHAT communism has done, rather than what hopes and dreams would have of it. 

Doomers don't ever like the status quo, I get that, it oozes from their pores and into their words and ideas.But surely you could have done better than your normal littany of anti-establishment rhetoric to combat it? Have ANY of your establishment complaints changed since since King George II of the early 21st century arrived other than the names involved?

[RE]

surely you could have done better than your normal littany of anti-establishment rhetoric to combat it?

Personally, I thought that was very funny and nothing like my normal littany of anti-establishment rhetoric.  Your problem is that you lack a sense of humor.

I didn't have any establishment complaints when King George II of the early 21st century arrived, I wasn't born yet.

RE

[TDoS]

surely you could have done better than your normal littany of anti-establishment rhetoric to combat it?

Personally, I thought that was very funny and nothing like my normal littany of anti-establishment rhetoric.  Your problem is that you lack a sense of humor.

A possibility. Another one is that humour is something easier to interpret in person, involving expressions, tone of voice, more subtle physical clues, etc etc.

You just haranging on what you harang on doesn't give much in the way of clues.

[K-Dog]

Yeah, I didn't think you'd be able to handle the main gist of my post, the entire "communism is good!" angle is just too easy to offset by pointing out...WHAT communism has done, rather than what hopes and dreams would have of it. 

Dismissing "communism" as a failed utopian dream misses the essential point.

Marxism isn't an abstract wish list.  It is a materialist analysis of how society actually works. Your terrible outcomes weren't inherent to socialism itself, but were the consequences of specific historical circumstances and political errors.  Bureaucracy degenerated workers' power, and sabotaged the international workers revolution.  But that was then, and this is now.

The core socialist aims collective control over production to end class exploitation remain fundamentally sound, and are analytically necessary.

The question isn't whether socialist goals are desirable (they are), but how can these goals be consciously achieved by the working class.  Using democratic means.  Avoiding the pitfalls and errors that lead to authoritarianism.

[RE]

You just haranging on what you harang on doesn't give much in the way of clues.

You need clues to figure out if something is funny?  It's not detective work, you don't need to be Sherlock Holmes.

RE

[RE]

CNN.COM 2026-04-28

UAE to quit OPEC in blow to world’s leading oil exporters, as Iran war roils energy sector

• UAE quits oil cartel: The United Arab Emirates will withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) this week, as the Iran war roils global energy markets. The price of oil climbed above $110 a barrel for the first time in three weeks today.

I wouldn't count on this lowering the price of oil anytime soon.  Down the line some though, Demand Destruction could do that.  It will however make the whole energy market more volatile and less predictable.

RE

[TDoS]

Dismissing "communism" as a failed utopian dream misses the essential point.

I didn't dismiss it that way. I just compared RE's perspective on it to the reality of it. Theory and practice are two different things.

Marxism isn't an abstract wish list.  It is a materialist analysis of how society actually works. Your terrible outcomes weren't inherent to socialism itself, but were the consequences of specific historical circumstances and political errors.  Bureaucracy degenerated workers' power, and sabotaged the international workers revolution.  But that was then, and this is now.

Sure. And now the Communists have forced labor camps for the Uyghurs, are making sure that Hong Kong folks aren't so thrilled with their switch from capitalism to being ChiComs again, want to make sure that the capitalists in Taiwan, doing quite well for themselves, are brought to heel and properly....educated...and Tibet certainly understands that difference betweem being free or being...under someone elses bootheel.

China is certainly a long way from Mao killing off 10's of millions in food experiments, so in your mind are they "proper" socialists nowadays? The kind you would happily give up your 4 wheeled status symbols for?

The core socialist aims collective control over production to end class exploitation remain fundamentally sound, and are analytically necessary.

In theory. And if we are talking socialism like Scandanavian countries as compared to China and North Korea, I'd pick Scandanavia for sure.

The question isn't whether socialist goals are desirable (they are), but how can these goals be consciously achieved by the working class.  Using democratic means.  Avoiding the pitfalls and errors that lead to authoritarianism.

Having not asked a question, but just responded to RE and his enthusiasm for a particular socio-economic system, the results of which are already in the history books.

And I think we are currently in some form of mismanaged oligarchy more than anything else. And the oligarchs are going to do their best to keep it that way.