[RE]

TDOS is in the cooler?  Fine then, I can make a claim about Peak Oil without the stench of denial blowing over it within the hour.

Peak Oil is real.  TDOS forgets I bought the M. K. Hubbert biography, but there is little point in arguing incorrect facts with someone who denies reality, and takes things out of context.

Yah, besides that he's fond of using half-truths to validate the claim fracking technology has beeen around since the 1800s.  In order to be really effective, fracking needs to be combined with horizontal drilling to be really effective in accessing oil trapped in non-permeable rock.

Horizontal drilling has been around since 1950s. Recent advances in equipment and in hydraulic fracturing techniques allowed the production of natural gas from previously inaccessible sources such as shale formations (Robbins, 2013). This new and significant increase in shale gas production opened novel research areas for process systems engineering (PSE) community, and it, in turn, benefited from PSE contributions (e.g., Tavallali et al., 2014; Cafaro and Grossmann, 2016; Drouven and Grossmann, 2016; Gao and You, 2017). For example, Cafaro and Grossmann (2016) presents a continuous-time nonlinear programming model and a multi-period mixed-integer programming model to solve refracturing planning problem for horizontal shale gas wells. The models determine which wells to refracture, and the frequency of refracturing and its schedule.

The equipment used for drilling in the 1800s was basically the same as what was used to drill a well for water.  The first wells they hir were basically accidental, and they blew out under so much pressure from NG they fracked themselves.  Drop some dynamite down the hole to frack some more.

While there was plenty of oil around in reservoirs that didn't need to be drilled horizontally and fracked at different strata, few bothered doing it because it's more expensive.  The method didn't come into wide use until conventional oil reserves started running thin and Tdos and his buddies went to North Dakota to frack the living shit out of the Bakken formation.

The North Dakota oil boom was the period of rapidly expanding oil extraction from the Bakken Formation in the state of North Dakota that lasted from the discovery of Parshall Oil Field in 2006, and peaked in 2012,[1][2] but with substantially less growth noted since 2015 due to a global decline in oil prices.[3]

The oil boom was largely due to the successful use of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, which made unconventional tight oil deposits recoverable.[4] Contributing to the boom was a push to commence drilling and production on oil and gas leases before the expiration of their primary term, commonly three to five years, at which time the leases would terminate unless a producing well was drilled on the lease. But once production was established, the leases continued as long as oil and gas were continually produced.

The boom created new jobs and economic growth in tandem with long-lasting negative effects, such as environmental degredation, pollution, infrastructure collapse, and an increased rate of sexual assault and other violent crime perpetrated by workers living in the area's "man camps" against Indigenous women and children in neighboring reservations.

This biz took off in 2006, right when Peak Oil interest began growing in the blogosphere, and has been used ever since by Tdos as the evidence that Peak Oil is wrong, there's plenty of oil out there to be fracked, so stop the doom talk already, OK? lol.

As it turns out, the wells depleted rather rapidly, the massive amount of debt to do it went underwater when prices dropped back down, and since then the oil companies have been a lot more conservative in the fracking adventures.  Now, the debt and investment is flowing toward the Green Energy Hopium crowd, which is why we get this non-stop parade of articles about new Batt tech, Fuel Cells, Hydrogen and Fusion.  They know fracking isn't a solution, so they're going balls to the wall with "clean renewable" energy.

Despite this fairly obvious turn of events, Tdos has been trolling websites so long claiming Peak Oil was bogus and everyone who made predictions were idiots that he just can't let go of it and move on.  What he should be doing now is debunking all the bullshit claims about Fusion power and Hydrogen substituting for FFs, that is the current meme, not Peak Oil.  That's ancient history.

From where I sit, the Renewables Hopium cohort has done a surprisingly good job of building Solar & Wind capacity as well as LDES to support that when the sun don't shine and the wing don't blow.  Despite this, there's still no way alternative energy can fully replace FFs at the current leveel of per capita consumption in 10 years.  So we are likely to take a significant hit at that time, if not before since the monetary system is seriously on the rocks and a more proximal problem.  Latest there is the Chinese have accelerated their dumping of USTs and the BRICS are closer to issuing a distributed currency based on blockchain technology.

So anyhow, I gave him another brief trip to the cooler because yet another trip down memory lane on the subject of Peak Oil remains tiresome, and basically irrelevant at this point.  Everybody Knows oil can't cover the energy demands projected for the decade to come.  In all likelihood, the demand won't be there, it will be destroyed first.  Growth numbers predicted for many if not all countries won't be met.

The 3rd Quarter of 2024 is a recent date I went out on a limb to predict for recession.  I felt I had enough data last year to make that call.  I could be wrong of course, but 3rd quarter begins at the end of June, so we'll see if we start heading south sooner rather than later.

RE

[K-Dog]

The Renewables Hopium cohort has done a surprisingly good job of building Solar & Wind capacity as well as LDES to support that when the sun don't shine and the wing don't blow.  Despite this, there's still no way alternative energy can fully replace FFs at the current leveel of per capita consumption in 10 years.

If they have been doing such a good job why are we using more fossil fuel now then when the Hopium renewable dance to keep everything the same started?

[RE]

The Renewables Hopium cohort has done a surprisingly good job of building Solar & Wind capacity as well as LDES to support that when the sun don't shine and the wing don't blow.  Despite this, there's still no way alternative energy can fully replace FFs at the current leveel of per capita consumption in 10 years.

If they have been doing such a good job why are we using more fossil fuel now then when the Hopium renewable dance to keep everything the same started?

Because demand increases faster than they can build alternative energy.

RE

[K-Dog]

The Renewables Hopium cohort has done a surprisingly good job of building Solar & Wind capacity as well as LDES to support that when the sun don't shine and the wing don't blow.  Despite this, there's still no way alternative energy can fully replace FFs at the current leveel of per capita consumption in 10 years.

If they have been doing such a good job why are we using more fossil fuel now then when the Hopium renewable dance to keep everything the same started?

Because demand increases faster than they can build alternative energy.

RE

All serious students of Jevon's paradox KNOW that it is futile to pursue alternative energy without restricting conventional energy use.  The relationship to Jevon's may not seem obvious, but a dynamic analysis of what happens as alternative energy is added to the mix shows there is a clear relationship which mimics Jevon's efficiency gain if the introduction of new energy is not balanced by removal of old energy.  Total energy use can only increase.  It is in the math.

But this being America, we don't do math.  We prefer to die.

[TDoS]

I don't see it as important at all

Your actions speak otherwise.  It's basically the only thing you care about writing on these pages, and you spend almost as much time at it as I do.

As I've mentioned before, you don't have a clue why I am here.  In the context of "why", my actions speak perfectly.

[TDoS]

TDOS is in the cooler?  Fine then, I can make a claim about Peak Oil without the stench of denial blowing over it within the hour.

I note that you missed the part where I already mentioned peak oil is real.

Are you aware that you are generally repeating points previously dispatched with quotes, references, timelines and history, evidence etc etc? Or do they not count because they are vanished by someone/organization, and as we are a bunch of geriatrics around here, we don't remember things as well as we used to?

I give credit where credit is do. Hubbert certainly declared peak oils. They just weren't perfect, unless now you wish to defend his 1950 peak claim as such? You did KNOW about his 1950 US peak oil claim didn't you?

[TDoS]

Peak Oil is real.  TDOS forgets I bought the M. K. Hubbert biography, but there is little point in arguing incorrect facts with someone who denies reality, and takes things out of context.

Hubbert's 1950 peak oil claim comes from the biography written by Mason Inman. So you had the biography, FORGOT he claimed peak oil in the US in 1950 and claim it is ME who had incorrect facts?

So..back in white is black and black is white land?

[RE]

I don't see it as important at all

Your actions speak otherwise.  It's basically the only thing you care about writing on these pages, and you spend almost as much time at it as I do.

As I've mentioned before, you don't have a clue why I am here.  In the context of "why", my actions speak perfectly.

Don't need clues.  The sheer volume demonstrates it in any context.  Why is irrelevant.

RE

[TDoS]

Yah, besides that he's fond of using half-truths to validate the claim fracking technology has beeen around since the 1800s.

Oh what nonsense. Half truths indeed, are you really at the point where you can't even represent what I've written here?

I provided a year for when modern hydraulic fracturing began. It wasn't in the 1800's. I also mentioned when hydrostatic shock showed up...that was in the 1800's. So who doesn't know the difference between the two of those? A clue...it ain't me!

You can't even remember when you were taking bets on Toyota going bankrupt back in 2008, apparently your memory isn't even able to go back to the last couple of hidden posts you now pretend don't exist so you can misrepresent what I said in them.

In order to be really effective, fracking needs to be combined with horizontal drilling to be really effective in accessing oil trapped in non-permeable rock.

Oh boy. Shale is permeable. Just not very. NON-permeable is rock that nothing flows through. Guess what shale can do, because it is PERMEABLE. It can have gas flowing through it. Now you can't be bothered to look up a word in a dictionary prior to inserting foot in mouth?

And there was certainly ZERO horizontal wells needed to develop the largest accumulation of natural gas in the known world in the 1920's and 1930's. Devonian shale. Still producing today. All vertical wells, all shot holes (no horizontal wells and no hydraulic fracturing) for the historically and geologically challenged.

 

The equipment used for drilling in the 1800s was basically the same as what was used to drill a well for water.  The first wells they hir were basically accidental, and they blew out under so much pressure from NG they fracked themselves.  Drop some dynamite down the hole to frack some more.

Again, can't even get HISTORY right. Springboards and cable tools certainly drilled for brine for the salt, and occasionally hit oil. 1848. American well set the Ohio River on fire. It was a water well.  It didn't do this because of pressure, it did it because oil came up with the water, hit the brazer for making bits nearby, caught fire, and there was no well control back then so a flowing well now on fire flowed down the bank, into a local tributary to the Ohio, burning all the way.

What kind of pressure you figure natural gas 60' under the ground is under Mr "I only wish they taught about Lithostatic Pressure In Chemistry Class so I wouldn't so easily say something stupid in front of someone who knows better"? Folks in NY drilled a well into shale, it leaked natural gas, they threw a big cast iron lid on top of the well with a hole in it, and used in some cases hollowed out anything they could find to move it up and down the street to run lighting. You figure those materials are really good for handling high pressure natural gas do you? The kind you can stop by using your finger to plug the hole if you wanted?

Stick to chemistry, your understanding of geology isn't any better than your mechanic skills where you can't figure out fire-fuel-compression on an internal combustion engine. Someone who thinks they can do an appendectomy my ass, you can't get an American V8 started that sits a little while.

Face it RE, you can't accomplish dick when it comes to practical applications. Smarter than shit and if trapped in a wet paper bag would die because paper when wet is NON-PERMEABLE!!!

[RE]

I note that you missed the part where I already mentioned peak oil is real.

Peak Oil is real, but "Peak Oilers" are idiots.  Peak Oil is real, but Peak Oilers have egg on their faces.  What is UNREAL is YOU.  You're an anonymous troll who has spent the better part of the last 15 years dropping 1000s of posts under numerous different IDs on numerous websites claiming numerous researcher were wrong about the timeline, wrong about fracking, wrong about resource depletion, wrong about collapse...  It's doublespeak like this that makes anything you write unreal.  There's no substance to it.  It's just confusion.

RE

[RE]

Face it RE, you can't accomplish dick when it comes to practical applications. Smarter than shit and if trapped in a wet paper bag would die because paper when wet is NON-PERMEABLE!!!

Fortunately, I've never been trapped in a paper bag. 

RE

[TDoS]

I note that you missed the part where I already mentioned peak oil is real.

Peak Oil is real, but "Peak Oilers" are idiots.

Not all of them. Hubbert wasn't. There was a guy publishing in Natural Resources Research, Tony S. something or another, who had a clue. A professore at School of Mines who later became State Geologist of Oklahoma, he had it figured out, why it didn't work, what would make it work better. Kevin/Keith? King of XOM was studying it well 20 years ago.

Hubbert's disadvantage was timing, he was just at the cusp of seminal work in discovery process modeling by Arps and Roberts in the DJ Basin (which began 2 years after his 1956 paper). Given another decade, his estimates would have been far better for what they found, which was the cause for his peak thing working even a little. Reserve growth came along later and screwed things up, and wasn't figured out until a few decades later, but even Hubbert was doing excellent work for his time with his late-60's and early 70's work on the topic. The USGS, the best geologists floating around in the country benefited from his work when they finally nailed it down decades later. Pete McCabe had excellent discussions with Colin and Jean in the late 90's, and his work had not just clues but data as to why the peak oilers were missing the boat.

It was the folks who once they latched onto the idea, and then couldn't ever question their belief in it, who tended to muddy the waters. And that, as it turns out, wasn't an education level issue, smart folks, dumb folks, geologists, other professionals, plenty went for the idea and then just couldn't let go.

You're an anonymous troll who has spent the better part of the last 15 years....

Certainly you and Haniel are the last to be able to claim I am a anonymous troll. No one else ever took the effort to track me down via my traveling and IP geolocating. And it is 19 years this November 29th.