The precise date on which the availability of economically profitable oil extraction and consumption makes further growth impossible isn't important in the long term.  What is important is that when it does arrive, the effects lead to all the outcomes predicted, and which are currently well underway.  Wars to control the remaining resource, political instability and polarization and irredeemable debt overhang are enveloping all the developed countries in Europe and the resource and labor countries in S America, Africa, MENA and SE Asia.  The big engine of China-FSoA Production & Consumption is running on fumes.  Climate related disasters pop up on a weekly basis.

Later than expected, but here nonetheless.


RE

Quote from: RE on Aug 05, 2026, 03:19 PMThe precise date on which the availability of economically profitable oil extraction and consumption makes further growth impossible isn't important in the long term.

Says you. Every website I've been on, some of which you were on, most certainly disagreed with your current opinion. If in fact it was only a current one.

Quote from: REWhat is important is that when it does arrive, the effects lead to all the outcomes predicted, and which are currently well underway.

So, when global peak oil happened in 1979, and lasted 15 years or so, why didn't those outcomes manifest themselves then? Or after any of the other peaks oils, such as the 2018 one? That lasted 7 years, and was only dispatched in 2025. And no...there are no MZBs, building homemade claymores isn't a thing, and as anyone who buys a tanker of liquid fuels at a time can tell you....they certainly STILL buy such a load.

Maybe your interpretation of what was supposed to have happened is what you are referring to? Because the vast majority of folks claiming peak oil effects DIDN'T proclaim random, run of the mill idiot political repercussions is just that.

You yourself over on peakoil.com were describing your after peak oil lifestyle, and the friends you would hsve defending the last frontier as La Longue Carabine in the lead. Well...did you live that lifestyle between 2018 and 2024, all of those post peak years?

Quote from: REWars to control the remaining resource, political instability and polarization and irredeemable debt overhang are enveloping all the developed countries in Europe and the resource and labor countries in S America, Africa, MENA and SE Asia.  The big engine of China-FSoA Production & Consumption is running on fumes.  Climate related disasters pop up on a weekly basis.

This list was ALSO claimed as happening way back when, DURING all the claimed peak oils. Don't you think rather than just repeating something that has, apparently, been happening for at least 25 years according to internet pundits, you could pick a few more specifics that aren't the usual claimed events? Wars to control remaining resource? You seen anyone attacking the US as the world's largest producer of oil and gas? Attacking Canada for their timber? Irredeemable debt has been around since Matt Savinar pitched the idea of the AMERO.

Quote from: RELater than expected, but here nonetheless.
RE

Later than expected meaning..."gee we sure screwed the pooch all those other times, lets hope this time is the one!". Well...Ruppert pitched the same thing in the last century, and when he died all that had collapsed over those decades was him.

You sure you aren't in the same boat? You've been seeing doom since early this century....and there it is...always over the horizon. The world is so horrible....yet it still can take care of those who lack the ability to care for themselves. No one is appropriating K-Dogs nice house for sleeping quarters for the new Gestapo, or kicking you into the street. Your internet still working? Of course. Food deliveries on time? Most likely. Do you lack fresh water? Doubt it.

Quote from: TDoS on Aug 05, 2026, 06:01 PMYou sure you aren't in the same boat? You've been seeing doom since early this century....and there it is...always over the horizon.

Not over the horizon.  It's plenty Doomy enough right now.

RE

Another day, another drought.

RE

Add the drought to the shortage of fertilizer.

RE

Forget "Global Warming".  Rebrand it "Global Cooking".

RE

Quote from: RE on Aug 05, 2026, 06:31 PM

Quote from: TDoS on Aug 05, 2026, 06:01 PMYou sure you aren't in the same boat? You've been seeing doom since early this century....and there it is...always over the horizon.

Not over the horizon.  It's plenty Doomy enough right now.

RE

Well...sure....as long as you keep to...normal stuff. Economic malaise...doom in jimmy carter.....the great recession....doom under trump....the 2008 market crash....doom under Bush AND peak oil that year...and so on and so forth. Plenty Doomy. But just economic ups and downs.

I know you get this, but it is terribly interesting that you even want to defend the idea with current events. It doesn't even come near any reasonable definition of what a REAL collapse that has been claimed on the internet, let alone my list, during which you and many others were certainly winding up to the BIG FINALE OF DOOM when all that happened was a yawner.

So why the willingness to proclaim anything related to the normal ups and downcurrent events as doom? It cheapens the entire seriousness of the topic among the still serious and preparing. Just an urge to finally see ANYTHING resembling your written  history on the subject before moving off this mortal coil?

After reviewing the 4 other posts all detailing current events, regarldess of quality of doomyness....I only have one question as it relates to REAL DOOM.

What is the expected population decrease this year from all the dooms you can round up in the news so far this year? A 1% drop? 5%? Come on....doom as malaise and recessions is all fine and dandy for pretenders, but the two of you KNOW better than to think anyone who is a quant and has already listed definitions including a population drop involved necessary to even get the ball rolling...as opposed to just posting bad news (has there ever been a year that DIDN'T have bad news?).

Quote from: TDoS on Aug 06, 2026, 04:02 PMAfter reviewing the 4 other posts all detailing current events, regarldess of quality of doomyness....I only have one question as it relates to REAL DOOM.

What is the expected population decrease this year from all the dooms you can round up in the news so far this year? A 1% drop? 5%? Come on....doom as malaise and recessions is all fine and dandy for pretenders, but the two of you KNOW better than to think anyone who is a quant and has already listed definitions including a population drop involved necessary to even get the ball rolling...as opposed to just posting bad news (has there ever been a year that DIDN'T have bad news?).

1 to 5 % is reasonable.  I'll have a firm opinion after the harvest comes in.  But no matter about that because you are like Elon, you will ignore anything that does not fit your narrative.  Just like this disgusting example of a current event.





Some poor guy maybe would like to retire but as Republicans have trashed the economy he  can't.  He is stuck doing the Wall-Mart greeter thing.  Then he drops dead.  You would say it is all his fault because his 75 year old dumb ass did not have enough money to take care of himself.  But he would have.......

He never gets counted.  Regardless of the actual chain of events he measures only as a statistic.  Setting a one to 1% to 5% population decrease figure as a quantitative threshold to separate systemic collapse from garden-variety bad news is totally unreasonable.  And heartless as fuck.  The human cost happens entirely off the books, long before any 1% to 5% threshold is reached.

It is pointless to argue with your sociopathic ass.  RE and I have better things to do. Now I am going to go do one of them.

Quote from: K-Dog

Quote from: TDoSWhat is the expected population decrease this year from all the dooms you can round up in the news so far this year? A 1% drop? 5%? Come on....doom as malaise and recessions is all fine and dandy for pretenders, but the two of you KNOW better than to think anyone who is a quant and has already listed definitions including a population drop involved necessary to even get the ball rolling...as opposed to just posting bad news (has there ever been a year that DIDN'T have bad news?).

1 to 5 % is reasonable.  I'll have a firm opinion after the harvest comes in.  But no matter about that because you are like Elon, you will ignore anything that does not fit your narrative.

Yes, that is what scientists always do, we make up an answer we like, publish that, and everyone accepts our professional opinion because hey! We're scientists!

Give me a break. I don't do random faith based random "narratives". We've already established all those peak oil nutters did that, but not us serious educated "dealt with a billionaire" folks.

What kind of exposure do you think the ideas either of you espouse here face? Each other, and me. I make a statement by publishing? I've got 1000 academics with PhD's smarter than either of you looking to rip it apart because, you know, they don't like folks being smarty pants with attitudes anymore than internet denizens like someone who knew peak oil was crock who keep showing up to rub it in after the fact.

Quote from: K-DogHe never gets counted.  Regardless of the actual chain of events he measures only as a statistic.  Setting a one to 1% to 5% population decrease figure as a quantitative threshold to separate systemic collapse from garden-variety bad news is totally unreasonable.  And heartless as fuck.

I don't do quantification of sympathy....I do more hard science, and that involves numbers as opposed to feelings. Look where feelings got the peak oilers. Oh right...WHAT peak oilers.

Quote from: K-DogThe human cost happens entirely off the books, long before any 1% to 5% threshold is reached.

I agree. Shitty lives are shitty lives. Politicians creating these lives are themselves shitty. But they aren't collapse. They are shitty lives. Is that a cost of the idiots in charge running amuck making sure the oligarches can mmonetize everything in sight? Yes. But it isn't collapse either. Its straight up scumbaggery.

Quote from: K-DogIt is pointless to argue with your sociopathic ass.  RE and I have better things to do. Now I am going to go do one of them.

It is good to have hobbys. I put another motorcycle up for sale, boy is thinking about the Coast Guard and I'm training in the ways of a wanna be athlete, daughter is selling her house, and I'm on one of those normal "ain't been done before" modeling projects going on, etc etc.

To Frogs in a pot of water, the temperature is always normal unless one keeps track.  Otherwise they're cooked.



RE

That is good.  And with more frogs in the pot, the story has even more critics, deniers, and twisted logic.

Voting along party lines congress might even hold the calculating frog in contempt.  Calling him Grauci (grouchi, grouchy) or something like Fauci.





Not just one singe death Elon, millions will die.

Great!  They'll get an extra 5 days of juice out of the plant by sinking the barges.  Not exactly a long term fix.

So far the FSoA is skating through the global drought's power generation crisis,  but may not make it thru the summer.  Lake Mead has reached 3521 ft and is close to deadpool level.  Same issue all along the Colorado River.  Another month, LA & Vegas may join the cities on the Danube in Europe without water enough to generate electricity.  It's not just an Oil problem.

RE

Quote Same issue all along the Colorado River.  Another month, LA & Vegas may join the cities on the Danube in Europe without water enough to generate electricity.  It's not just an Oil problem.

Prices, for homes in Henderson NV are down 2.6% over the past year.  But since that won't kill anybody directly, and the domestic violence increase shall be buried in noise, TDOS won't be able to call it a collapse.